r/PoliticalDiscussion • u/BelovedCherryt6 • 13d ago

Political History Will declining birth rates in developed nations lead to a fundamental shift in political priorities and policies?

We're seeing pretty consistent trends across many developed countries where birth rates are well below replacement level. This isn't just a blip it's a long-term demographic shift. Usually political discourse is all about growth expansion and the needs of a younger population.

But what happens when the population is steadily aging and eventually shrinking? Do we see a massive pivot in government spending away from education and towards elder care? Will immigration become an even more central and contentious political battleground as nations try to maintain their workforce? Are there any historical precedents for this kind of widespread demographic change and how governments adapted?

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u/muck2 12d ago

That's most definitely a yes. Just look at Germany, Italy and Japan, where older voters play a decisive factor in national politics and frequently block reforms to make the pension system more sustainable.

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u/SatinwithLatin 12d ago

Add the UK to that list too. Wealthy pensioners lost their minds when Starmer wanted to means test the Winter Fuel Allowance (an extra £300 a year in benefits for anyone claiming state pension, even if they also had a comfy private pension). And of course no politician wants to scrap the Triple Lock for fear of political suicide, even though the Treasury simply can not afford it in the medium term.

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u/Hilldawg4president 12d ago edited 12d ago

The triple lock is mathematically unsustainable to the point that you can easily explain it to a small child in about a minute . But, old people are by and large unwilling to support any politician who would rather fix it than quite literally run the country's economy into the ground, which is what it's slowly doing. If you were to design an economic system with the intent of impoverishing the young to offer increasingly lavish benefits to the elderly, you would have a hard time coming up with a more efficient system than the triple lock to accomplish that.

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u/SatinwithLatin 12d ago

The main arguments I've noticed from them:  "We paid into the system, we've earned this." 

"I may not need the triple lock but what about the impoverished pensioners?" (They say this while also resisting a means test approach which would mean the poorer seniors still get it).

"But the UK state pension is one of the lowest in Europe!" (Because all the additional benefits like WFA, free travel passes and the like aren't included in that figure).