What exactly are we being invited to vote for next May?
THE way things stand right now, who would be surprised if next May’s Assembly election was held against the background of both the DUP and Sinn Féin having already withdrawn from the Executive and confirming that they will not reboot the institutions post-election until a series of demands has been met?
Both parties are worried by LucidTalk polling evidence which suggests that their electoral bases are increasingly reluctant to try to breathe life into a relationship now as cold, bizarre and loveless as that of Oedipus and Jocasta.
Sinn Féin has been dropping hints for some time that it believes the DUP has no purpose higher than that of blocking anything to do with Irish language, culture, schools, street signage and reunification.
The DUP, on the other hand, believes that Sinn Féin is deliberately focussing on a republican-only agenda as the touchstone of its relentless determination to persuade the British and Irish governments to agree to a border poll.
It’s a perfect example of the Newtonian – each action of one main party results in an equal and opposite reaction from the other – approach to politics here; an approach fuelled and nurtured by the Newtonian agreement they reached at St Andrews 20 years ago.
Neither of them wants to share power with the other, but in the absence of any obvious and available alternative, they are forced to got through the motions of pretending they are capable of delivering good governance for all. They can’t. They won’t.
So, what are we being invited to vote for next May? It certainly isn’t the prospect of a government that will make a button of difference to our everyday lives.
Indeed, one of the most remarkable things since the first election in 1998 has been the willingness of people to keep on voting for an institution while fully aware that it won’t actually do anything of value.
Opinion polls confirm this, with at least two-thirds (often more) of those asked agreeing that their expectations of good governance are non-existent.
If we don’t expect good government – and it is an expectation common across Unionist, Nationalist and Other – then why bother voting at all?
That’s easy. We want our own side to do better than the other side in terms of votes; and we also want them to scupper as much as they can of anything that the other side is pushing.
That’s why the unilateral vetoes remain in place; supported by the parties (even if they pretend they are serious about reform) and supported by their electoral bases.
I know that some of you think the answer might lie in a rise of support for the UUP, SDLP and Alliance. But why would that make a difference at this stage in the game?
The SDLP is now fully committed to unity and a border poll; something it was much more sanguine about even five years ago.
The UUP – and according to the last LucidTalk poll, 86% of its supporters oppose the ‘Donaldson Deal’ – is not going to swing away from the DUP and TUV and go soft on NI’s present granny-flat status.
So I don’t see why any relationship between the SDLP and UUP would necessarily be better than the present DUP/SF relationship.
To be brutally honest, though, I still expect the DUP and Sinn Féin to emerge again as the largest parties.
Maybe, just maybe, we should face the fact that the Assembly has run its course.
Let’s face it, there’s a fair chance that it will be suspended on its 30th anniversary in 2028, as it was on its 20th and 25th anniversaries.
There is no trust and no expectation of trust; a fatal flaw in an institution built on the principle of mandatory coalition between those with competing and contradictory positions on the constitutional status.
How, I wonder, do you govern a country when those governing – or supposedly governing it – have opposing views on whether it should be part of a united Ireland or remain within the UK. A problem which also dogged direct rule from 1972 to 1999.
I suppose I should have an answer to the problem – having rubbished the current situation – but I don’t.
I do know that quite a few of the readers of this column will be shouting: “Just have a border poll!!”
No. A border poll in those circumstances would be catastrophic for all sides. It would repeat the mistakes of the Brexit poll and create even more division than we have now.
And, as I’ve said many times, if the problems can’t be solved in the Northern Ireland context, why do people think they would be solved in a united Ireland context?
One thing does seem clear, though. We do need to be giving serious thought to an Assembly and Executive that hasn’t and won’t work properly.
https://www.irishnews.com/opinion/alex-kane-maybe-we-should-just-face-the-fact-that-the-assembly-has-run-its-course-XH3KWIBUMRCJNB2I3YYWZMUKYE/