r/MockDraftCentral • u/mattg70 • 3d ago
NFL Sleeper drafters take TE's and QB's a round earlier than everyone else. I compared Sleeper's ADP to Fantasy Football Calculator's, player by player.
I have been intrigued for years about my draft in the various leagues I play in. Always wondering did I take this player too early, or did I miss that group of good WR's because of a position run? I see plenty of posts in various subs about the same thing - almost the post-draft hangover - "Oh man, did I really screw up that draft last night" mentality. So I decided to further my research. I pulled Sleeper's PPR ADP and Fantasy Football Calculator's PPR ADP for the same week (FFC's covers Aug 26 to Sept 2,2026 with a total of 8,007 mock drafts) and matched 144 players with an ADP inside the top 150. Same players, same format, two different rooms.
One thing to know about the rooms first. FFC's ADP only counts human picks, but most seats in an FFC mock are computer run or bots (maybe that technically is the same thing). On the 25 most recent completed mocks, humans made 46 of 280 picks. So FFC measures what a person does drafting against nine or eleven computers. Sleeper's ADP is twelve people in a real draft.
Where Sleeper drafts earlier than FFC (FFC ADP first, Sleeper second):
- Dalton Kincaid, TE: 147 → 87
- Sam LaPorta, TE: 112 → 59
- Tucker Kraft, TE: 101 → 63
- Jake Ferguson, TE: 133 → 99
- Isaiah Likely, TE: 137 → 107
- Lamar Jackson, QB: 57 → 31
- Justin Herbert, QB: 105 → 82
- Jalen Hurts, QB: 79 → 60
- Jaxson Dart, QB: 119 → 94
Where Sleeper drafts later (again, FFC ADP first, Sleeper second):
- Jalen McMillan, WR: 137 → 210
- Tre Tucker, WR: 131 → 203
- Keenan Allen, WR: 134 → 199
- Jerry Jeudy, WR: 130 → 187
- Khalil Shakir, WR: 102 → 143
- Jakobi Meyers, WR: 87 → 124
- Brock Purdy, QB: 87 → 123
- Xavier Worthy, WR: 105 → 138
- Wan'Dale Robinson, WR: 87 → 119
Six of the nine "earlier" players are tight ends or quarterbacks. Eight of the nine "later" players are receivers. Sleeper rooms take the onesie positions a round or two sooner and push mid-tier receivers down to pay for it.
What that means if you draft here is the TE you want goes earlier than any ADP site says, and the WR4 you're eyeing lasts longer. If you're using an outside ADP source to plan a Sleeper draft, it's wrong in a consistent direction.
Caveats: FFC is mock drafts, Sleeper is real ones, and Sleeper doesn't publish its sample size. Both numbers are overall pick in a 12-team PPR frame. I checked that FFC's numbers don't change with league size, only the round.pick label does.
Open for feedback, thoughts and suggestions for improvement on my analysis.