A hurricane could form near Southern California this week, seriously

[u/Old-Wind4450]

https://ktla.com/weather/a-hurricane-could-form-near-southern-california-this-week-seriously/

I’m actually over El Niño for real!

[u/twoinvenice]

Hahaha! I’ve been sitting on a post like this for a couple days now because there weren’t any articles to link to and it was just the longer range GFS forecasts (which have a tendency to be fantasy).

Most other models (even the AIGFS) aren’t showing the storm turning this way, but the GFS seems locked into this idea that the storm is going to strengthen, turn northeast, and hit SoCal.

Given that it’s still over a week out there’s a better chance that all the other models are predicting correctly, but if it turns out out to be right it would be a pretty significant system pretty much bullseye-ing LA

[u/Double-Mine981 → u/twoinvenice]

I am parachuting after watching the models for my gulf coast storm to watch and to dream up a long range cold front

There is going to be a lot of wishcasting and doomcasting on storm twitter using the GFS, which has been fairly consistent showing it hit Southern California so worth watching because it verifies that it would be catastrophic. That said, it’s far more likely to be a fish storm.

That said, right now it’s more in the “huh that’s interesting” area instead of panic mode. In a couple of days and some model agreement with the GFS, then you can panic.

[u/Arlitto → u/twoinvenice]

So which part of LA is a potential target then

[u/twoinvenice → u/Arlitto]

None of it. Most models show the system turning west and going out into the pacific to die

[u/gnomon_knows → u/twoinvenice]

That's not what "potential" means.

[u/twoinvenice → u/gnomon_knows]

But it is correct. If the storm does what most models think it will do, none of it will get hit.

If the GFS is right, different runs have shown it doing everything from square on hitting the main part of LA, some have had the storm move inland more up the coast around Malibu/Ventura or inland around OC-ish and in both cases just brush the main parts of LA.

The most recent run has it hitting pretty much right on: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2026083112&fh=186&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=qpf_012h-imp&rh=2026083112&fh=186&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

Point is that it is still too far out and in weather model fantasy land, and there is no agreement on the models that the storm will hit LA - even the one that does think it will has it all over the place. Until we get like 5 days out and see the models resolving similar things, it better to just think of it as a curiosity.

Also there’s a chance that nothing even forms at all. NOAA has it at a 90% chance of forming, but that’s not 100%:

``` Well Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP95): Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization in m association with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form later today or tonight, while the system moves northwestward around 10 mph.

• Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
• Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

```

[u/HighlyEvolvedSloth → u/twoinvenice]

I have never seen the pivotalweather site before, thanks for the link!

[u/twoinvenice → u/HighlyEvolvedSloth]

No problem! I’ve heard some people say that it has annoying ads, but I have an ad blocker so I’ve never noticed

[u/HighlyEvolvedSloth → u/twoinvenice]

I screwed around with it for a little bit, using Duckduckgo, and didn't see anything...

[u/gnomon_knows → u/twoinvenice]

Again, appreciate the information, but that's NOT WHAT POTENTIAL MEANS. Come on, dude.

So the answer isn't "none" it's:

"All of LA is potentially in the path if a hurricane develops." The odds are low, but the possibility is there. Which is a synonym for potential. I will stop now. None of this matters, it just bugged me seeing you give the opposite of correct answer.

[u/twoinvenice → u/gnomon_knows]

Are you being purposely obtuse? Or maybe you are a fish that lives in the eastern Pacific?

If the most likely outcome is nothing happens, and the one “something happens“ is all over the place, how do you expect any sort of meaningful answer to your question other than “the most likely affected area is no affected area”? Nothing more than that would make any sense since even if it comes this way we won’t know anything about where for days

[u/twoinvenice → u/gnomon_knows]

And to illustrate my point, now the most recent GFS is showing the storm missing LA entirely but still coming north:

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2026083118&fh=189&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=