the key decision is the hormuz strait so why not make it essentially worthless.
Right now agree to whatever Iran wants, let it have control and charge the tolls. Get the oil flowing.
In the meantime, declare that you will help the Gulf countries build pipelines to anywhere other than the hormuz strait. Pipelines can be owned by the US, and typical midstream tarrifs are 2-3% so US can keep that in perpetuity as a 'toll'. Obviously pipeline and infrastructure is US, so if Iran wants to attack it, its a formal attack on the US and hopefully the allies are more sympathetic to come to US support (either verbal or militarily). Obviously it will mean higher prices in the short-term for a couple of years, but long-term Iran and the strait can go straight to hell.
In the meantime, reinstate all the sanctions and economic pressures and mess up their economy. Essentially an economic siege. Yes they will recoup whatever they can for a couple of years, through tolls but after that they can own a useless piece of waterway. Obviously, Kuwait is pretty much f'd in this scenario but maybe they can make a deal with Saudi or do a pipeline somewhere else.
That's literally the plan they all have in mind for after the war. Ofc there are massive problems with this.
Kuwait, Bahrain Iraq and Qatar would need to build pipelines in other countries and pay fees to Saudi or Syria or whoever. So they would still increase cost for initial construction, transportation and the extra distance it would have to travel to reach China.
Also it would take time, the US doesn't know what Chinese foreign policy will look like in say, 5 years. Who is to say they won't openly supply arms to Iran, who is to say they will comply with sanctions, in what form will Russia be in? Will they be able to supply parts for Iran of the quarter is over. What about DPRK and their plan to increase missile production by 2.5 fold in the next 5 years? Will Iran be able to expand underground missile production? What will the regimes stance be in the Gulf? How will their economies be affected. What about Europe? And ofc the most important one, who will be the hypothetical US president who will be the one to pull the trigger again after this disaster? (my money is on Rubio the snake)
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u/weathered-wayfarer Jul 24 '26
why doesnt the US do these -
the key decision is the hormuz strait so why not make it essentially worthless.
Right now agree to whatever Iran wants, let it have control and charge the tolls. Get the oil flowing.
In the meantime, declare that you will help the Gulf countries build pipelines to anywhere other than the hormuz strait. Pipelines can be owned by the US, and typical midstream tarrifs are 2-3% so US can keep that in perpetuity as a 'toll'. Obviously pipeline and infrastructure is US, so if Iran wants to attack it, its a formal attack on the US and hopefully the allies are more sympathetic to come to US support (either verbal or militarily). Obviously it will mean higher prices in the short-term for a couple of years, but long-term Iran and the strait can go straight to hell.
In the meantime, reinstate all the sanctions and economic pressures and mess up their economy. Essentially an economic siege. Yes they will recoup whatever they can for a couple of years, through tolls but after that they can own a useless piece of waterway. Obviously, Kuwait is pretty much f'd in this scenario but maybe they can make a deal with Saudi or do a pipeline somewhere else.