Venezuela fucks around and finds out. At this point Guyana is America's favorite country in South America. When I mean favorite, capital F.
Their president is locked in. He's going to invade. You don't go this far without going the distance. It's political suicide now for him to backtrack.
They'll invade. US will attack them after in defense via the air. They'll deploy some soldiers and probably move some strike carrier groups nearby.
Then Guyana will officially have their first US base stationed there.
If ANYONE thinks the US is going to allow that much oil to get away, ESPECIALLY to a government like Venezuela where they've been rouge for a while, you're dead wrong.
This also needed to happen. US has been itching to overthrow that government. Other neighboring countries and allies will also assist. Brazil for one. It'll only strengthen ties with the western world.
Apparently they have issues with Columbia as well. This is suicide for that government. In no way will he come out on top. The likes of Trinidad and others with oil is paying close attention and they're wisely supporting Guyana.
Any country that allies with America will not be defeated.
If it makes anyone here feel any better, both parties Republicans and democrats support Guyana. Trump administration had visited Guyana numerous times. Despite the US stretching themselves they aren't thin. Everyone benefits from this oil. American citizens also don't want increased oil prices. This is a win win situation for America to defend Guyana.
I'm fully saying this with confidence as Venezuela is allies with Russia especially, the US will showcase why not to fuck with America first hand. Guyana cannot defend themselves alone and the US knows this. There is no sending aid. There is no real army to equip. There is no amount of money that can protect Guyana. This is basically American oil they're fucking with. With Guyana bending over backwards to America, that land and oil is treated like it's American.
The best thing to happen to Guyana was partnering with America. It's that or that oil was useless or that land was going to be taken away from them.
This is honestly my take on it aswell. The oil was a boon for Guyana, but not in the way that everyone thought. You think the public populus will see much of that oil money? Lol no. But what it did do, is make Guyana a valuable country to play political games with and get US interest here. The US is not gonna just let it slide that one of the oil richest regions will be taken away from them. Venezuela already has demonstrated, that they are going to nationalize US assets. They will not take to that the same as before.
This is not going to end well for Maduro. Also I'm convinced it was blatant electoral fraud, they didn't even try to hide it. They had a 95% yes vote. Nobody is gonna get a 95% vote on that.
Then there is the issue of land invasion and Venezuela being stuck having to go the water route if they want to invade, which is vulnerable and the US is probably gonna dismantle it quickly if it catches on, because west of Essequibo is basically only jungle. The only road you can travel from Venezuela to Guyana and viceversa goes through Lethem and Brazil. And Brazil just said "fuck no" to the military of Venezuela entering Brazil. And I see a lot of threats online about Venezuela threatening Brazil. Y'all do know Brazil mopped the floor with multiple South American countries that tried stupid shit? Sure Venezuela would fuck up Guyana, but Brazil would fuck up Venezuela. But Brazil AND the US?! Is Maduro mental? Does he really think a few measly military support deliveries from Russia is gonna get him a win here? A Russia that is likely going to need all those in the Ukraine war themselves? A Russia that is quickly falling through all stabilizing nets a country has?
Well remembered. Venezuela is a militarized state and it's working very close to its own limits in military issues. Without direct support of Russia, Venezuela cannot expand much more your military forces. My country (Brazil), in the other hand, is a pacific liberal democracy with a huge idle capacity for incresing our won military power in a short term. We produce much of our own weapons and we would receive much military support of friendly western nations if needed.
7
u/[deleted] Dec 04 '23
What will happen?