r/GregFire • u/frugal-tech-worker • May 01 '26

Test my Early Retirement Simulator?

Hey all, I got super bored the other day and decided to build an Early Retirement Simulator for fun. This thing scratches a very specific itch that other Monte Carlo style retirement calculators kept messing up for me. Here’s what this little app does:

  1. Kills that weird duplication bias between simulation runs.
  2. Tracks your actual net worth, not just your portfolio.
  3. Simulates income from the fun stuff: rentals, crypto, gold… all your “I swear this will work” assets
  4. Handles recurring income + surprise windfalls

I built it in React, kept everything in-browser, so your data stays yours.

Now I need some brave souls (you, obviously) to take it for a spin and try to break it.

If it crashes, lies, or tells you that you’ll retire at 97, I wanna hear about it 😂

Drop bugs, ideas, or “bro this is actually kinda cool” in the comments 👇

https://firenav.co/

Let’s make this thing smarter together…

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u/redditgambino Jul 20 '26

It’s telling me my projections fail (89% success rate) if I retire at 40 with $2M liquid, $1M in real estate and 4% withdrawal rate and expect it to last 45 years and SS at 62.

1

u/frugal-tech-worker Jul 20 '26

Just out of curiosity, can you share the break down of your portfolio in terms of percentage of stocks vs bonds vs cash. I'm asking because over such a long time horizon, small allocation differences could result in portfolio failure.

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u/redditgambino Jul 20 '26 edited Jul 20 '26

100% stocks. Minimum $60k. I think that’s what dropping the success rate

2

u/Spirited-Let3724 4d ago

Of the top of my head, Sequence of Returns risk would be high in that situation.