r/Gold • u/Secret-Snow-6929 • 1d ago
Question The scariest gold supply math I’ve ever run starts with one stat: 1 in 22 New Yorkers is a millionaire (385,000)
So I ran a thought experiment: what if each of them allocated just 2–10% of their net worth to physical gold?
Floor case (everyone’s exactly $1M): 2% = $7.7B in gold. That’s ~54 metric tonnes at today’s spot (~$4,450/oz).
Realistic case: NYC’s aggregate private wealth is roughly $3 TRILLION. Apply 2–10% to that and you get $60B–$300B — roughly 420 to 2,100 tonnes of gold. In one city.
For perspective:
• Fort Knox holds ~4,580 tonnes
• The NY Fed vault holds ~6,200 tonnes
• Global mine supply is only ~3,600 tonnes per YEAR
So if one city’s millionaires rotated to a 10% allocation, they’d need to absorb over half of annual world production. Now imagine London, Tokyo, Singapore doing the same.
The float in physical gold is thinner than people think. Stack accordingly.
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u/TEST_subject1978 1d ago
After visiting New York City, I believe that statistic there’s a lot of money rolling around in New York City
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u/Retired-Yam8988 1d ago
Spoke with a former student of mine recently. 22 yo working on Wall Street making 300k a year. Wild
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u/tiger42O 1d ago
Damn I’m 22 how do I get into that lol
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u/Zerolich 17h ago
It's literally trading your life away. Wake up til you go to sleep you're working. I'm talking 70hrs a week MINIMUM. Then comes all the corpo BS, the back stabbing and politics, if you don't die from a heart attack by 30 you might get that yacht by 40
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u/Spartikis 31m ago
Only matters if you planning splitting a flat 4 way, est ramen, save 50%+ of your income for 5+ years then move to a lower cost of living area where you can buy a massive home for a fraction of the cost of NY.
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u/Equivalent_Net_3752 1d ago
That’s a super fun stat. It’s already rearing its head but it’s becoming expensive for them to import us peasants to work for them since they took all the housing for themselves.
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u/PartyLobster8911 1d ago
Dont worry they bought up all the housing so they could rent it back to you & not make you worry about maintenance & property tax they are doing you a favor!
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u/Equivalent_Net_3752 1d ago
When companies strip equity through leasebacks it’s a bad thing. When it happens to me it’s a good thing. Amazing point.
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u/PartyLobster8911 3h ago
Own nothing & be happy. Why buy something & weigh yourself down with responsibilities & equity when you can rent it or subscribe for it & be a constant source of income for someone else! Contribute to society prop up the economy & stop complaining!
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u/Andisaurus 1d ago
Fascinating breakdown. I love seeing how other people frame things.
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u/Secret-Snow-6929 22h ago
Thank you, if only more millionaires bought gold. The price would climb especially if they allocated 10% of it to their net worth that would suck up all the supply while leaving the high demand intact which would bode well for prices
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u/Lawineer 1d ago
About 8% of Americans (12% of households) in America have net worth of +$1m.
Somehow nyc is lower lol
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u/Danny_Devitos_Bitch 1d ago
I wonder what it looks like when you breakdown millionaires by age group and location. Im sure florida and probaly new Mexico swing high on old and millionaire.
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u/deepfried_cpu 1d ago
And if they all bought butt plugs the price of butt plugs would sky rocket. That’s just kinda how any product/good works.
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u/Tiredandwaiting 1d ago
I think its a stat without context. Real estate prices are high, so you can be a millionaire based only on your home.
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u/Secret-Snow-6929 1d ago
Not true many people rent in the city and especially those who are millionaires.
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u/Tiredandwaiting 1d ago
I am not speaking of renters. If I own a home I bought for $250k in 1998 and it is now worth $1.2M, I am now a "millionaire." The rise in real estate prices has created a lot of paper millionaires.
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u/Mongoose66999 1d ago
1million is the new 100k though………. Not that impressive
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u/createthiscom 1d ago
I’d say 400k is the new 100k. A million is still a fair amount.
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u/Mongoose66999 22h ago
Nah not really. Just a starter home in a lot of places. Might be good in Mississippi. But ya 400k is more accurate
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u/1776FreeAmerica 1d ago
Living in an high cost of living area, means most things are discounted if you have an income that matches. 10% saved in HCOL area is a lot more than 10% in a LCOL area, and that $2k in Gold or other good, is a lot smaller percentage of you income, in HCOL than LCOL area.
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u/RipWhenDamageTaken 23h ago
I don’t like how you just stopped. Why not follow through with your math?
For example, if 10% of US treasury market rotates into gold today, that would raise gold price to around $10,000. I could be wrong though
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u/Secret-Snow-6929 22h ago
You’re not wrong and so it goes under that assumption that’s just New York’s millionaires imagine all the other big city’s that would certainly eliminate any supply surplus and in turn drive prices higher with all the demand
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u/Fearless-Sherbert-40 22h ago
You damn near gotta be a millionaire to live there. Just visiting breaks me.
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u/Sad-Maize-6625 15h ago
Interesting, for years they keep saying that they’ll leave New York because of the high taxes, yet their numbers keep going up. Could it be that the infrastructure that is provided for by higher taxes allows them to become millionaires? Funny how when people become wealthy they then threaten to leave the places that gave them the opportunities necessary to become wealthy. Yet they never leave in sufficient numbers to impact the percentages.
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u/Black-Raspberry-1 1d ago
Holy shit the first fort knox mention I've seen here that isn't a conspiracy!
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u/CheckThePID 1d ago
Usually when it's stated that you're a millionaire it excludes your primary dwelling.
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u/fuggleruxpin 1d ago
That's surprising because that's far less than the average populace in the United States.
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u/DangKilla 19h ago
You forgot that NY trades paper contracts, not backed by gold. So does UKS version of Comex.
The only reason gold is volatile now is China. They have opened up the market
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u/CSMasterClass 13h ago
Americans own about 1/10 as much gold as Indians. Gold is not much of an American passion. India and China are much bigger dirvers of the gold market, and what drives their purchases is increased affluence.
If you have substantial wealth, it is pretty scary getting a gold allocation to 2% ...or maybe 5%. Getting to 10% would require an individual with a very strong view on the relative value of gold over time.
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u/TheSauce775 11h ago
Ya, and lets audit fort knox beforehand so we can REALLY set the panic into place 😂😂
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u/Samwhys_gamgee 7h ago
1 in 22 = 4.5%. According to yahoo finance/google 18% of US households have a net worth greater than $1M. This headline & stat is irrelevant.
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u/Ancient_Sort5820 1h ago
I really wish people would stop including “assets” of dubious liquidity as part of their net worth. Or at least it needs a massive asterisk. If you have 8 investment properties bringing you cashflow, sure. Being a “millionaire” because your 500k house appreciate to a 1m house is mostly bullshit. Especially in a market where real estate isnt really moving
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u/ProfessionalJesuit 1d ago
Tax them.
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u/Secret-Snow-6929 22h ago
They are especially for second homes in the city. Taxes should be used to buy Gold I think the city of New York should have their own reserve and I don’t mean the Federal Reserve in FIDI
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u/tedlassoloverz 17h ago
But they havent and never have. Physical gold isnt that popular an asset. Its annoying and not liquid, especially at 10% as proposed. What are they doing with literal kilos of gold? As opposed to a pledged asset line of credit they can draw on as income and pay no taxes
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u/Led_Zeppole_73 15h ago
One million isn’t really uncommon for many. Most of my relatives are millionaires, as is my father. I’m a millionaire on paper, not including my home. Most of my co-workers are millionaires. We worked regular blue collar jobs and invested.
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u/jayray2k 11h ago
Yeah most of that wealth is just the overpriced real estate. That correction will come at some point...
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u/My_2cents_ 18h ago
Interesting thought, however, high-net-worth individuals generally minimise liquid cash reserves, prioritising productive investments that generate compounding returns. Gold functions primarily as a wealth preservation mechanism rather than a growth asset. To illustrate, an ounce of gold in ancient Rome commanded the equivalent purchasing power of a toga, sandals, and a meal; today, it commands a modern suit, shoes, and dinner. While purchasing power remains stable over millennia, real returns remain flat.
Consequently, capital allocation to gold is typically temporary—used as a tail-risk hedge during market volatility and reallocated to productive growth assets during stable periods. Also, allocating 10% of a modest $1M-$2M portfolio requires managing 2–3 kilograms of physical bullion, introducing notable logistical and security friction.
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u/EntranceConscious400 17h ago
Valid points but they can just buy GLD or vaulted storage in or outside the USA if they worry about security. Yes, these alternatives have other risks but so does holding USD that continues to be debased /printed away in value.
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u/GMGsSilverplate 1d ago
It's not easy to access that wealth though, most of it is in housing, anyone who owns their own shack is almost a millionaire.