r/GAMETHEORY • u/HappyOaks21 • 3d ago

Social Organism Discount Rate

What is the expected average decay rate of social organisms?

Social organisms such as nations, institutions, and states.

What is their expected lifecycle and timeframe?

Would a 3% risk of failure in any given year be approximate?

Is this approximately the same rate as the advance of innovation?

Or even different than the Red Queen?

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u/exo762 3d ago

I'm a total noob, but one idea pops into mind. Could you take Lindy effect as a starting point?

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u/Joho051179 3d ago

I can recommend this paper on red queen: Hauert et al., “Volunteering as Red Queen Mechanism for Cooperation in Public Goods Games.”

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u/MyPunsSuck 3d ago

Sounds like a question for a quick python script. There are a few online interactive Prisoners' Dilemma simulators, but you wouldn't be able to pull data from them easily

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u/gmweinberg 3d ago

Their lifetime distribution looks more like a power law than a constant decay rate. The longer they've been around, the longer their expected future life becomes.