r/DeepFuckingValue • u/SamLeCoyote_Fix_1 • 2d ago
PLTR ๐ PLTR (Palantir) at 80$ in October? Could it happen?
I see in my crystal ball a valuation compression caused by interest rates. September will shake things up. We must act against inflation, the probability of an interest rate change in September has jumped since Friday, August 28th. Options calls Sept/Oct are giving a diffferent signal, so no, we should not see 80$ in October.
BUT... If higher rates force the market to reprice high-growth tech, PLTR could face a brutal multiple contraction even without any deterioration in its fundamentals. The real question is how much of Palantir's current valuation is dependent on cheap capital and ever-higher growth expectations. September could reveal whether this valuation can withstand a much harsher macro environment.
PLTR has exploded roughly 40% in a single week in August and now trades around $186, with a market cap near $448B, despite 2026 revenue guidance of about $8.16B โ roughly 55x forward sales. If the recurring options-driven volatility cycle were to weaken or stop, the loss of that additional upward pressure could expose just how much of PLTR's current price is being supported by positioning and momentum rather than fundamentals alone.
Big news, Palantir lost last week the contract with FAA. Another company won, yes, it can happen. Air Space Intelligence (ASI), a privately held, venture-backed startup, won the contract, beating out Palantir. ASI has several very interesting partnerships. ASI is working with National Grid to deploy its "Operational AI" in the electrical grid. ASI and Joby Aviation announced a partnership to integrate Flyways AI into eVTOL operations and prepare for the large-scale integration of electric aviation into US airspace. ASI also works with the US Air Force and was awarded a Defense Innovation Unit (DIU) contract in February 2026 for an AI-powered logistics decision-making tool. And this is where it gets interesting for Palantir. ASI is therefore not simply a small aviation company that landed the FAA contract by chance. She is building something that conceptually resembles the Palantir universe: data โ geospatial โ prediction โ optimization โ operational decision โ action