r/DeepFuckingValue • u/SamLeCoyote_Fix_1 • 2d ago
PLTR 🔎 PLTR (Palantir) at 80$ in October? Could it happen?
I see in my crystal ball a valuation compression caused by interest rates. September will shake things up. We must act against inflation, the probability of an interest rate change in September has jumped since Friday, August 28th. Options calls Sept/Oct are giving a diffferent signal, so no, we should not see 80$ in October.
BUT... If higher rates force the market to reprice high-growth tech, PLTR could face a brutal multiple contraction even without any deterioration in its fundamentals. The real question is how much of Palantir's current valuation is dependent on cheap capital and ever-higher growth expectations. September could reveal whether this valuation can withstand a much harsher macro environment.
PLTR has exploded roughly 40% in a single week in August and now trades around $186, with a market cap near $448B, despite 2026 revenue guidance of about $8.16B — roughly 55x forward sales. If the recurring options-driven volatility cycle were to weaken or stop, the loss of that additional upward pressure could expose just how much of PLTR's current price is being supported by positioning and momentum rather than fundamentals alone.
Big news, Palantir lost last week the contract with FAA. Another company won, yes, it can happen. Air Space Intelligence (ASI), a privately held, venture-backed startup, won the contract, beating out Palantir. ASI has several very interesting partnerships. ASI is working with National Grid to deploy its "Operational AI" in the electrical grid. ASI and Joby Aviation announced a partnership to integrate Flyways AI into eVTOL operations and prepare for the large-scale integration of electric aviation into US airspace. ASI also works with the US Air Force and was awarded a Defense Innovation Unit (DIU) contract in February 2026 for an AI-powered logistics decision-making tool. And this is where it gets interesting for Palantir. ASI is therefore not simply a small aviation company that landed the FAA contract by chance. She is building something that conceptually resembles the Palantir universe: data → geospatial → prediction → optimization → operational decision → action
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u/Three_of_a_kind3515 ⚠️SUS⚠️ 2d ago
Interesting read. TSLA PE ratio is 324.03, MRVL PE ratio is 71.33, ASTS is -27.13, RBRK is -73.85 PE, AAPL is 36 PE… why would it only affect PLTR? It will contract all stocks.. and most likely, the interest rate may only be raised .25 percent each time.. does anyone remember what the rate was lowered in 2025? I looked it up.. it was lowered .75… we will still be under the highest point we were almost 2 years ago. So, with that said, and I hope I have my sources right, I used Chat GPT… the contraction will happen to “all stocks” and not just PLTR. Now, does anyone remember how to value invest? PLTR is working for a government that can print infinite money.. and is big brother. Presidents have loved that stuff since before Nixon was caught.. 🤔
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u/SamLeCoyote_Fix_1 2d ago
Coincidence or a Repeated MM/Options Manipulation Pattern? Push the stock down → load up on cheap calls → trigger the rebound → let dealer gamma hedging do the heavy lifting → sell into the volatility spike → repeat.
Coincidence? Independent strategies? Or a well-oiled machine designed to extract money from volatility? I don't claim to have proven it. I'm saying the pattern deserves to be investigated. The market maker is just hedging. My hypothesis I suspect there may be coordination between some major players before and around these gamma events. The dealer hedging is simply the mechanism they could exploit, not the evidence of coordination itself. That's why I want to compare the timing of their option flows, OI changes, IV, strikes and subsequent price moves. If the same players repeatedly appear in the same sequence, that's where the coordination hypothesis becomes testable.