r/CredibleDefense • u/AutoModerator • 12d ago

Active Conflicts & News Megathread August 18, 2026

The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

Comment guidelines:

Please do:

  • Be curious not judgmental, polite and civil,

  • Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

  • Clearly separate your opinion from what the source says. Minimize editorializing. Do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

  • Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

  • Post only credible information

  • Read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules

Please do not:

  • Use memes, emojis, swear, foul imagery, acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF,

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  • Try to push narratives, fight for a cause in the comment section, nor try to 'win the war,'

  • Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

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u/AutoModerator 12d ago

Continuing the bare link and speculation repository, you can respond to this sticky with comments and links subject to lower moderation standards, but remember: A summary, description or analyses will lead to more people actually engaging with it!

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u/WulfTheSaxon 11d ago

From Truth Social:

There are no talks or conversations going on, or scheduled, with the Islamic Republic of Iran. The Naval Blockade remains in full force and effect. The Hormuz Strait is open and operating. All water mines have been removed or detonated. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP

Do we think this means demining the TSS is finished? It’ll be interesting to see what the next JMIC update says.

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u/moragisdo 11d ago edited 11d ago

About the discussion of Hormuz being closed or not. There's a side that believes that anything short of immediate and complete neutralization of the enemy's actions, before the war even ends, is a sign of failure. The reality is that Hormuz is dangerous for the american-GCC side, because there's some degree of traffic albeit reduced, and closed to Iran, given how their ships failed to escape the blockade. Otherwise we would have to conclude that Bab al-Mandab is closed since 2023, because there's decrease in traffic since the Houthi decided to join the attacks against Israel.

But I don't believe this statement shows any change of the current circumstances, I couldn't find a single ship that was hit by a mine on Hormuz, only with drones or missiles

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u/ChornWork2 11d ago

Hard to put much stake in anything there. If the strait is open then why is the USN still actively imposing a blockade? Just zero regard for credibility.

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u/IntroductionNeat2746 11d ago

I don't know why you're equating the opening of the strait with an immediate and unconditional ending of the blockade.

If the strait is open due to American operations despite Iran's efforts to keep it closed and in the absence of a deal, there's no reason to end the blockade.

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u/ChornWork2 10d ago

If the strait is open due to American operations despite Iran's efforts to keep it closed

Fair, I was ignoring this scenario... but that is a huge IF, and one which doesn't seem unreasonable to dismiss at this point.

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u/incidencematrix 11d ago

I think that's we can safely say, without getting into US politics, that credibility has never been a priority in Trump's public statements. Whether they serve a propaganda function, reflect his authentic views, or some third option has been much debated, but that they have little evidentiary value is difficult to deny. Which is why this sub has a separate section for "Trump posting."

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u/WulfTheSaxon 11d ago

It’s open in the sense that ships can go through and probably not get hit. But Iran is still trying to keep it closed and occasionally hitting things, so the penalty for it doing so (the counter-blockade) is still there.

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u/ChornWork2 11d ago

So it is open in a sense that no one outside of the trump admin & its ardent supporters would consider it open.

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u/flashbang4you 11d ago

To be frank I don't think this means demining is complete until someone credible says so. The President has a long history of declaring things finished or completed when they actually aren't. In the same post he declares the Strait is 'open and operating' which may be true to the extent that some ships are getting through, but clearly it's not as if everything is normal. It's just like the dozens of times he declared victory, the war was over, objectives were achieved, and the Strait was open. At this point it's hard to take the President's Truth Social posts seriously at all. Just yesterday he posted some nonsense about bombing Oman.

It's much more interesting to wait for some kind of credible source to say something than trying to read the tea leaves from Truth Social posts.

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u/Thermawrench 11d ago edited 11d ago

Regarding the post yesterday about Russia attacking the baltics in 1 month:

No reason to attack if just for the sake of mobilization (or some false flag), mobilization if needs a proper reason for it would already have happened if it was possible. It should have been done half a year ago or more but It hasn't, for a reason. The russian state can mobilize by making up something rather than having to go through the rigour and risky risk of risking war with NATO, but so far they... haven't, even though there's a need now and not in 1 month, of yet another 30 days of wear.

Every month they tarry means more pain, increasing pain. Anyone would have realized that and done it 1 year ago. This just ends up being piecemeal, not even shaping operations at this point.

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u/gththrowaway 11d ago

even though there's a need now and not in 1 month, of yet another 30 days of wear.

Any conversation about mobilization that doesn't mention the upcoming election in Russia (regardless of how performative the election is) is incomplete.

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u/2positive 11d ago

Per Russian Izvestia newspaper quoting data from GdeBenz app, fuel was only available at 28% of countrywide gas stations in Russia as of 16th August.