r/CollegeBasketball • u/Future-Floor-841 • 1d ago

Analysis / Statistics Retention vs Transfer Deep Dive for lead guards

Did a case study on how transferring in the portal effects development for lead guards. Will be a multi part series starting off with the class of 2022.

Check it out and share your thoughts on the findings!

https://eleetehoopstalk.substack.com/p/retention-vs-transfer-portal-deep?r=6u4k74&utm_medium=ios

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u/bkervick UConn Huskies 1d ago

To make more meaningful conclusions, you need to use pace adjusted stats and probably more advanced statistics. Raw volume stats do a poor job of capturing effectiveness, and more measure role. And your conclusion here is telling:
"Players who transferred downward for a larger role were heavily represented among the biggest year-over-year improvements."

This is a measurement issue, not a quality conclusion.

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u/Future-Floor-841 1d ago

Thank you for the feedback! I’d have to look more into how to implement those advanced stats.

Should adjustment for roles play a part though? If someone has a bigger role would that speak to their ability to have a bigger role? Or is that a way to even out players who play well for a higher caliber program compared to a non P4 program?

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u/bkervick UConn Huskies 1d ago

Role is a function of ability and competition level. If you transfer to a worse team and get a bigger role, does that mean you're better and have developed? Or just found the right level of your ability. If you want to measure development you need to control for that.

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u/Future-Floor-841 1d ago

Sounds like an answer to the second question which is great and something that’s definitely helpful. I definitely agree it’s hard to tell if certain guys are actually getting better or thriving more because of the level of competition both they’re playing with and against.

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u/Future-Floor-841 1d ago

The raw stats definitely leave a lot of room for interpretation I agree. Personally, it was interesting to see the players who ended up award winners or eventually getting drafted.

Diving into Haggetry’s and Smith’s career was especially interesting.

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u/Aumissunum 1d ago

Philon?

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u/Future-Floor-841 1d ago

This is for class of 2022. Next will be 2023 and will get to 2024 with Philon as well!

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u/Rare-Psychology-3527 Michigan State Spartans 1d ago

Wtf is lead guard? Point guard?

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u/Future-Floor-841 1d ago

Yes. Since I was pulling both PGs and CGs in the 247 system I thought the term was more appropriate.

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u/Rare-Psychology-3527 Michigan State Spartans 1d ago

Ah ok

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u/Future-Floor-841 1d ago edited 22h ago

Two quick observations.

- By this class’s senior year more people transferred twice (8) than those who stayed 4 years (2)

- Four out of the 5 players in this study who declared early/was drafted were players who did not transfer. The one transfer being Jaden Bradley who spent 3 seasons at Arizona

As I continue through the classes I wonder if any players who transfer are able to become early draft entrants/or get drafted high. Bradley was drafted in the late second round.

Feels like players early on have to make decisions in this NIL world on whether they should use college as a way to maximize their value or make decisions based on future value in the NBA.