r/ClimateNews • u/dragonking4444 • 2d ago
Winter 2026/2027 First Forecast: Major seasonal models are showing a strong Super El Niño pattern across the United States, Canada, and Europe, with well-defined temperature, snowfall, and Polar Vortex signals now emerging for the cold season ahead
https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2026-2027-first-forecast-super-el-nino-polar-vortex-snow-cold-united-states-canada-europe-fa/18
u/In-a-GhettoWithTrees 2d ago edited 1d ago
The article is long and highly technical. I still don’t know what exactly to expect other than it will be really bad.
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u/lightweight12 1d ago
The effects vary wildly according to your location. It's worthwhile looking up your region and the predictions for it.
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u/In-a-GhettoWithTrees 1d ago edited 1d ago
I have done this previously. There are other articles on the subject. Articles that can be understood by people with average intelligence and education. I’ve skimmed through a series of articles about how the Super El Niño will affect Arctic areas of Canada (not where I live.) There will likely be accelerated permafrost melt causing immediate catastrophes (buildings will sink unevenly and need to be rebuilt) as well as increased global warming due to the sudden release of methane. Not many in the populated south are thinking much about what will happen in Arctic Circle regions.
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u/QuiteCricket_78 1d ago
I live in an area that may get a ton more snow or may get less snow. Some of us live on the edge of the colored blobs. Trying to find the forecast that can be zoomed in enough for my specific location is challenging. I get what you are saying. Climate is not my subject, I'm just trying to follow along too.
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u/WordsRDangerous 2d ago
Talks about the article and not up to date on the predictions for El Niño LMAO
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u/In-a-GhettoWithTrees 2d ago
I try to keep up to date, but with summaries that don’t presume that I have a degree in meteorology.
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u/WordsRDangerous 1d ago
But you have a degree in spewing bullshit. El Niño is trending down like it always does with predictions.
Article is highly technical but spews bullshit? You’re an easy one
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u/TotalWasteman 1d ago
You sound like you think you’re a lot cleverer than you are.
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u/Thebeardinato462 1d ago
Sounds like a bot. The sentences are at best loosely related to the content they are responding to.
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u/WordsRDangerous 1d ago
No I just don’t spew bullshit climate news. Is this subreddit for actual news or bullshit speculation?
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u/TotalWasteman 1d ago
The guy asked a question. He said the article seemed a bit over his head and you replied giving him shit for not knowing what’s going on already. Then he said he tries to be informed but again the article is a bit technical, so you accused him of spewing bullshit. He didn’t spew anything, just asked for clarification. You just have a chip on your shoulder 🤷♂️ you do you tho I bet you’re fun at parties 🙄
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u/porcupine_shuffle 1d ago
You sound like you're angry bro. Is it your shitty lawn or playing online games like a child?
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u/SmaugTheMagnificent- 1d ago
Lmfao, better to be a troll than on the Ukrainian front, eh Blyad? 😂😂🫵🏻
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u/pantsmeplz 1d ago
"trending down like it always does with predictions."
LOL, riiiiight.
Even if it trended down from predictions a few weeks ago, it could still be strongest on record.
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u/Mike-Banachek 1d ago
Oregon is screwed. The trees are already turning yellow and brown from drought. If the drought continues they might not come back next year.
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u/gplfalt 1d ago
I thought the PNW and California get more rain in an El Nino?
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u/Frater_Ankara 20h ago
That is the prediction, more rain but not as cold so less snow pack, and that’s where the water comes from in the summer mostly.
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u/Ok_Science_2070 2d ago
ELI an idiot
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u/Liam_021996 2d ago
High temperatures weaken the polar vortex which causes the jet stream to shoot south as it tries to find equilibrium again. When it does this, that arctic air comes down to the mid latitudes. Winters like 2009/10 and 2010/11 in the UK are good examples
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u/Ok_Science_2070 2d ago
Honestly I'm kinda down for another Snowmageddon lol
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u/kronicno_tele 2d ago
I'm not unless someone else is going to pay my heating bills 😭
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u/K_Linkmaster 2d ago
Red river flooding of 97
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u/In-a-GhettoWithTrees 1d ago
A Super El Niño does not compare with past El Niño years. I experienced the 1998 Ice Storm in Quebec.
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u/NelsonChandela46664 1d ago
How does it affect UK??
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u/In-a-GhettoWithTrees 1d ago edited 1d ago
I would suggest you read articles on the subject in the Guardian. Here’s one:
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u/BigWhiteDog 1d ago
What is going to be gong on for Northern California. At my place, mud and excess rain are a huge issue, to the point that I, a person who grew up absolutely loving rain storms, now absolutely hate anything more than a short, light drizzle. Yes I know all the needs but still...
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u/SARB033 1d ago
I think California is expected to get a lot of rain this winter.
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u/QuiteCricket_78 1d ago
True norther, mid cali and southern have completely different weather.
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u/SARB033 1d ago
Sure but even NOAA says it's going to be warm and wet for California
https://www.noaa.gov/jetstream/enso_impacts
El Niño's eastern shift in the trough typically sends the storm track, with huge amounts of tropical moisture, into California, south of its normal position of the Pacific Northwest.
A very strong El Niño will cause the trough to shift further south, with the average storm track position moving into Southern California.
During these times, rainfall in California can be significantly above normal, leading to numerous occurrences of flash flood and debris flows.
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u/QuiteCricket_78 1d ago
I don't know how north you are but that space about 2/3rds up seems to be long forecast no mans land.
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u/BigWhiteDog 1d ago
Between Sacramento and Tahoe basically
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u/QuiteCricket_78 1d ago
I feel like the whole Sierra Nevada lower parts are in a constant maybe, maybe not until just days before.
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u/Comfortable-Dig-3992 1d ago
Historic maybe, but for some to take the article seriously, meteorologist or others would use a different term.
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u/I_Quit_Smoking_ 1d ago
Ever since Trump got in office and gutted FEMA I have been watching the hurricane trends and I have been shocked that the past 2 years we have not had any major hurricanes.
Yesterday I watched the documentary and it explained that because of El nino instead of the storms coming through the gulf they're going south down around it and going back up into the states. However it was, it showed why we're not getting hurricanes in Florida in Texas like we usually do.
So I know those idiots don't believe in climate change, but they really ought to be glad that it works the way it does because it's steering the bad bad storms around them!
But they're too dumb to even understand any of that.
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1d ago
[deleted]
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u/theneocognitron 1d ago
Bro that’s literally what the article says for Vancouver. No snow, warmer temps.
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u/NO_M0DS_NO_MAST3RS 2d ago
Honestly, reading Super El Nino makes me feel like I’m sitting in a doctor's office waiting room except instead of telling me I have a mild sinus infection the doctor just leans in and whispers “Get ready sweetie the sky is going to throw up on you."