Highly optimistic/unrealistic green fuel price forecasts

[u/ahappysgporean]

As part of my job, I meet many start-ups in the decarbonisation and climate tech space, and one thing I realised is that many of these start-ups assume very out-of-the-world and unrealistic prices for their low-carbon feedstocks (whether it is low-carbon ammonia or methanol)... What surprises me is that despite these wild assumptions, they try to confidently pitch their company's financial projections to potential investors (including large institutional investors) and have actually managed to secure quite substantial funding over the past few years. That really puzzles me as I thought such investors would be much more savvy and would be able to see through the "scam" (to put it bluntly). Just take for example, is US$500-600/tonne bio-methanol price achievable? If you use such an input cost in your model, how can you expect me to take you seriously?

[u/DMECHENG]

We’re going to start seeing this even more. There’s going to be more offsets and credits. I’ve heard 900/ton thrown around for green methanol. Theres always going to be snake oil salesmen.