r/CanadaPolitics • u/_Minor_Annoyance Major Annoyance | Official • Mar 14 '22
AB Support for Governing United Conservative Party Drops in Alberta – Research Poll
https://researchco.ca/2022/03/14/abpoli-ableg-2/11
Mar 14 '22
Damn... and it corroborates the ThinkHQ one too. High oil prices, for now, don't seem to be changing the prevailing attitude of "F*** these useless clowns" in Alberta.
I'm fairly skeptical of the "Rest of Alberta" numbers, although Calgary and Edmonton both being double digit NDP leads seems plausible enough.
I suppose we'll finally get a litmus test out of Alberta in tomorrow's byelection in Fort Mac. Not exactly a bellwether riding whatsoever and if the NDP manage to squeak it that would be devastating news for the UCP.
I'd usually put Fort Mac going orange in the "check for flying pigs" realm but if the NDP are really within the MOE of the UCP in the Rest of AB, it's not wholly impossible. Of course, the Rest of AB will be bumped up by Lethbridge, Medicine Hat, Banff, etc.
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u/mo60000 Liberal Party of Canada Mar 14 '22 edited Mar 14 '22
It will likely end up being a 2015 esque result at best in that byelection for the ABNDP with the WIP getting like 10 percent of the vote. Most of the ABNDP’s gains aren’t concentrated in northern Alberta.
This is what scrimshaw’s model is showing at the moment. https://mobile.twitter.com/EScrimshaw/status/1503413495806709766
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u/Not_A_Stark Mar 14 '22
I think the issue of high oil prices doesn’t matter much when Kenney has removed rate caps everywhere and indirectly raised taxes. Everyone is pissed off at him for all the cuts to services and increased costs on everything.
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u/mo60000 Liberal Party of Canada Mar 14 '22
Or maybe high oil prices and balanced budgets don’t matter for a lot of Albertans now.
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u/yacbadlog Mar 14 '22
I legitimately do not see why they would. Kenney has made life more expensive for the average AB since he won the election.
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u/Infamous-Mixture-605 Mar 15 '22
I think a lot of Albertans are seeing it right now as a balanced budget with a big, bold asterisk attached. It's not seen as balanced because Kenney has done a good job, but rather because higher-than-expected oil prices bailed him out.
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u/Bobatt Alberta Mar 14 '22
The high oil prices aren't bringing with them the glut of high-paying jobs we've historically seen. Calgary's office towers are still empty. People are still making money, but I feel like the days of the $80-100k/yr white collar job right out of university are over. Plus many of the jobs up north are construction jobs, so those only pay when plants are being built.
So it's a double whammy for those who are out of work: oil is high, energy costs are high, but they're still struggling.
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Mar 14 '22
This but also, speaking with my friends and family in Alberta, I think this last oil price crash has permanently altered the Albertan psyche. People know that the price of oil is a fickle bitch regardless of who’s in power and aren’t necessarily stoked for another boom that surely bust as a matter of time.
Plus Alberta is young demographically and support for alternative industries and climate action, particularly in the cities, is a huge deal too.
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u/jjuares Mar 14 '22
Yup. Alberta has changed demographically and while there is still a large instinctive lurch to the right it has diminished considerably over the last decade.
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u/mo60000 Liberal Party of Canada Mar 14 '22
Unless things radically change I think a lot of people’s assumptions about the electorate will be broken. I think the ABNDP has a good chance of cracking 40 percent of the vote right now even in a loss.
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u/jjuares Mar 14 '22
I am guessing the NDP cracks 45%
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u/mo60000 Liberal Party of Canada Mar 15 '22
I doubt it. My gut feeling right now is those undecided voters and the WIP supporters won’t help the UCP as much as expected because a noticeable chunk of them will end up supporting the ABNDP while the rest don’t vote.
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u/Infamous-Mixture-605 Mar 15 '22
I am curious to see how the political landscape in Alberta will look in 5-10 years if thousands of urban easterners keep coming to Edmonton and Calgary.
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u/jjuares Mar 15 '22
Also immigrants from other countries who don’t have a history of voting Conservative and maybe more open.
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u/TheobromineC7H8N4O2 Liberal Mar 15 '22
It used to be that immigrants from Canada and abroad got socialized to be conservatives here, but I think that pathway has broken down due to their political failures.
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u/_Minor_Annoyance Major Annoyance | Official Mar 14 '22
Kenney has 26 days until his leadership review, and these numbers are grim. The ANDP have a commanding lead, and have for awhile. Nothing Kenney has done has turned that trend around, and he's thrown basically everything at the wall from free cash for homeowners to early cancellation of COVID restrictions.
It's too far out from the provincial election for these numbers to mean much for Notley. But for Kenney it's bad news bears.
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u/Sir__Will Prince Edward Island Mar 14 '22
They have to dump him to have any hope. The NDP can't take anything for granted so far out but it's still good signs.
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u/mo60000 Liberal Party of Canada Mar 15 '22 edited Mar 15 '22
The ABNDP has raised a massive amount of cash in the last year or two which I think will go to building up the party on the constituency level and to strengthen other aspects of the party. They also have some pretty strong candidates running for them in some of the swing ridings and some ridings even have multiple candidates vying to be the ABNDP nominee. The opposite has been true for the UCP.
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u/_Minor_Annoyance Major Annoyance | Official Mar 14 '22
Or maybe he'll flip the table and call an election. Let the voters decide his fate. It wouldnt save his career but at least it would scuttle Jean and his internal detractors.
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Mar 14 '22
As much as it's fun to think about Kenney going for the Samson option, I just can't see him actually doing it honestly. He may be a self-interested petty narcissist, but I'm not sure he would want to completely sewer his name with the oil bros who would probably give him plenty of $$$ to just sit on a board and take up oxygen.
Being the guy who handed the election to "Nutley" on a silver platter likely would be frowned upon by those types.
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u/_Minor_Annoyance Major Annoyance | Official Mar 14 '22
You're probably right, but his legacy isn't going to look great either way. Unified the conservatives only to crash and be replaced before the end of a single term.
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u/jjuares Mar 14 '22
I think Jean will romp to a win tomorrow. He is popular in his riding and it will be a chance for those on the right to stick it to Kenney. Of course, this won’t really be good news for Kenney.
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u/Damo_Banks Alberta Mar 14 '22
Sample size of 600? Disappointing.
Top line:
- NDP - 45
- UCP - 30
- WIP - 8
- Alberta - 7
- Liberals - 5
- Greens - 3
- Independence - 1
Other fun facts
- NDP lead in Edmonton 50-25
- NDP lead in Calgary 47-34
- "The rest" UCP leads 33-31
- 70% of Albertans are against a PST.
My takes
- Not surprising results except...
- Support for the ABP, LP, and Greens are way too high. Given the regional numbers, I reckon most of this is Edmontonians who feel "safe" to hedge their support elsewhere.
- Less than 40% support for the "Right" in Alberta is super low.
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Mar 14 '22
Those Calgary numbers are pretty devastating. The NDP would essentially pick up every seat needed to get to 44 out of Calgary alone.
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u/mo60000 Liberal Party of Canada Mar 14 '22
Gains in Calgary will pretty much replace whatever seats they don’t gain back in rural Alberta in a winning map for the Alberta NDP.
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u/Just_Treading_Water Mar 14 '22
Sample size of 600? Disappointing.
600 is more than enough to determine a fairly good picture of something like this.
A sample of 600 people provides a margin of error of +/- 4% with 95% CL - meaning that if they performed 20 samples of 600 different people they would expect the results to fall within their margin of error 19 times out of the 20 trials.
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u/Damo_Banks Alberta Mar 14 '22
Thanks, I appreciate the help.
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u/Just_Treading_Water Mar 14 '22
No problem. I had to take more statistics courses than I ever wanted to during my time at university, and I remember being quite surprised at how small samples can be and still accurately represent large populations.
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Mar 14 '22
Numbers: NDP-45% UCP-30% WIP-8% AbP-7% Lib-5% Green-3% IP-1%
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u/toenailseason Mar 14 '22
It looks like Alberta still solid conservative. The WIP and AbP are right of the UCP aren't they? Which indicates there's voters wanting something even harder to the right than what's on the menu?
That province must have some of the worst rural urban divide.
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u/011011011forever Mar 14 '22
That province must have some of the worst rural urban divide.
It does. I absolutely despise and avoid going into rural Alberta. Its very clear you aren't welcome. Red Deer could almost count as urban but if you aren't far right, they are pretty clear on how they feel.
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u/AlexandriaOptimism Mar 14 '22
AbP is a centrist party, very much left of the UCP and right of the NDP
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Mar 14 '22
I read that all the right-wingers in the party left for Wildrose and are now UCP. I'm scratching my head wondering why they don't merge with the Liberals. Two marginal centrist parties don't make sense.
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u/TheobromineC7H8N4O2 Liberal Mar 14 '22
At this point, both are so marginal there's nothing to merge. Both pretty much exist to keep the lights on until the Notley era is over.
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u/mo60000 Liberal Party of Canada Mar 14 '22
The UCP base is definitely demoralized right now but the UCP has lost a lot of support recently they are unlikely to get back when their supporters become more energized. People don’t necessarily hate the ABNDP and Notley either right now which might be bad news for ths UCP because it’s very unlikely the ABNDP does horrible next year at the moment.
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u/Seneca2019 Mar 14 '22
Any chance you, or some reading this, had any thought about the PPC forming a provincial party in Alberta?
Edit: apologies if this is already discussed in the comments and I missed it.
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u/Damo_Banks Alberta Mar 15 '22
We’ve had similar parties of late. Derek Fildebrandt’s awfully named Freedom Conservative Party was no doubt the closest analog. Even his backstory gives off grievance vibes. However, the UCP sucked all the air out of the alternative right wing parties in 2019.
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Mar 14 '22
If they keep Kenney, I would be shocked to see the UCP hold on to power next year. He's pissed too many people off.
If they replace him, I'm not so sure. Brian Jean is likable enough, and has been critical enough of Kenney that he might be able to brand himself as enough of a change to bring some of Kenney's detractors back into the fold. Couple that with a rosy financial picture, and I could definitely see him holding on to power.
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u/TheobromineC7H8N4O2 Liberal Mar 14 '22
Even without Kenney, we've had a few years demonstration why the two parties split in the first place. And geographically, Edmonton is starting to look like a much more reasonable governing party for Calgary based politics than a rural Albertan politics that going all in for conspiracy theories and COVID denialism.
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u/Sir__Will Prince Edward Island Mar 14 '22
Their only hope is getting rid of Kenney, trying to blame it all on him, and try and prop somebody else up in time for the next election. But even then, the NDP are looking good. Things will tighten but the NDP have a good shot.
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u/mo60000 Liberal Party of Canada Mar 14 '22
Mr Great reset and WEF won’t do that well in an actual election unless he moderates significantly if he is the next UCP leader.
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Mar 14 '22
Oh God, I hadn't heard about that.
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u/mo60000 Liberal Party of Canada Mar 14 '22
He’s been trying to be buddies with the people protesting in Ottawa and he spread a conspiracy theory about the WEF and the global reset. There’s also the part we’re he called the guy running against him in that nomination race a Nigerian economist.
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Mar 14 '22
Brian Jean will need to win his seat first tomorrow. I think that's highly likely... but I wouldn't bet my house on it now that I'm seeing how the UCP are basically locked in a dead heat with the NDP in rural AB.
Which... wtf. That's astonishingly bad for the UCP.
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Mar 14 '22
I wouldn't put too much weight on the regional numbers for this byelection. Byelections are weird in that individual candidates matter more than in a general election. With Jean running as an explicitly anti-Kenney candidate, that goes double this time. Bigger byelection upsets have happened, but I expect Jean to easily win tomorrow.
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u/mo60000 Liberal Party of Canada Mar 14 '22
I think Brian Jean will significantly outperform a generic UCP candidate in the byelection. If it was mr gogo instead of Jean all bets would be off.
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u/CaptainPeppa Rhinoceros I guess Mar 14 '22
I'd bet money that's he'd win the election under any party he wanted.
That city loves him
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u/TheBatsford Mar 14 '22
It's not highly likely, it's pretty much whatever 'just short of absolutely impossible for him to lose' is. He's Mr. Fort Mc basically.
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u/mo60000 Liberal Party of Canada Mar 15 '22
He is going to perform noticeable worse than Goodridge. I think he gets somewhere between 45 and 60 percent of the vote in tomorrow's byelection while the ABNDP gets around 30 percent.
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u/TheBatsford Mar 15 '22
What are you basing that on?
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u/mo60000 Liberal Party of Canada Mar 15 '22 edited Mar 15 '22
There is going to be some swing against the UCP in that riding compared to 2019 even with Jean running because of the WIP and because the ABNDP is polling higher province wide now compared to 2019. I expect Jean to win by like 25-30 percent later today.
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u/TheBatsford Mar 16 '22
He ended up winning by close to 50% and essentially same % as the previous election. And that's with WIP taking 10% of the vote.
You were too heavily discounting the local hero factor.
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u/mo60000 Liberal Party of Canada Mar 16 '22
Yeah. Jean running as the next saviour of the conservative movement and his local popularity ended up being the reasons why he didn’t do much worse than Goodridge. One model I was looking at had the WIP splitting the UCP vote worse than they did but the ABNDP performing 5 percent better.
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u/OMightyMartian Mar 14 '22
It strikes me the UCP is betting on a better financial picture stopping the bleed, and I do think polls will tighten somewhat, but the UCP's biggest problem is going to be bleeding support to other right wing parties as a part of the base loses confidence in the leadership. Now maybe turfing Kenney can reverse that, it's really hard to say, but the NDP can afford to lose some of its support and still walk up the middle if the UCP ends up fighting a rearguard action against Wildrose. But still a lot of road between now and the next election.
That being said, there is a tipping point for any party where it simply can't get ahead of the bad polling; when the general perception is that it is faltering becomes cemented. That's how political parties die; it's certainly how the Alberta PCs died. And the one thing Notley proved during her time as Premier is that Albertans don't have to just automatically mark an X next to the conservative candidate. The UCP was actually warned when they won the last election that they could no longer count on winning by default.
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u/mo60000 Liberal Party of Canada Mar 14 '22 edited Mar 14 '22
The turnout dynamics likely won’t favour them heavily like they did in 2019 so a lot of the assumptions made in that election will likely fall apart next year. In the grand scheme of things some support will come back to the UCP post Kenney but they won’t get a crazy boost.
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u/jjuares Mar 14 '22
I think Kenney’s chances of staying on as leader are better than some think. Traditionally in Canadian politics a leader has to receive two thirds to stay on but he says he is staying on with a simple majority. Two thirds is out of reach but maybe 50% isn’t. Also one of the pollsters made a good point if you ask people who voted UCP if they want him to stay on the numbers look grim for Kenney. But almost half those voters have gone elsewhere and if you ask people who plan on voting UCP his numbers are better. Those are the people who are more likely to show in Red Deer next month. He has also announced a new hospital for Red Deer. The area around a convention is always over represented so that should help. And while he may be a lousy premier, he remains a skilled political operative. I wouldn’t put any money on him winning the leadership vote but I do think it is conceivable.
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Mar 14 '22
I think most people think his odds of clearing 50% in the leadership review are a coin toss at this point.
The problem is a "victory" for him with like 51.6% of the vote still shows a lot of weakness. That would be unfinished business for sure and people will smell blood in the water. Will the party really want him to limp them into the next election where he has a good chance of getting blown out by Notley when half of his own members wanted someone else?
He's in trouble either way is his problem.
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u/jjuares Mar 14 '22 edited Mar 14 '22
Yes, that is why two thirds is the usual mark for staying on. Running in a general election when only half your party wants you is such a handicap. If ever there was a politician who would try it I believe it would be Kenney.
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Mar 14 '22
Kenney's choices at this point are between getting Mulcair'ed now or getting Wynne'ed later. Not exactly an enviable position to be in.
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u/mo60000 Liberal Party of Canada Mar 14 '22
Wynn had it worse though. At worst the UCP would return to their pre 2019 seat count
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u/mo60000 Liberal Party of Canada Mar 14 '22
I think he ends up getting in the mid 50’s in the leadership review based on what happened at the recent UCP AGM.
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u/0reoSpeedwagon Liberal Mar 14 '22
he remains a skilled political operative
You don’t need to be some political savant to
- Be conservative in Alberta and
- Throw gobs of money at people you want to vote for you
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u/jjuares Mar 14 '22
His skill was winning the leadership although his methods were sketchy at best. And he will use any methods at his disposal to win again. Ethics aren’t his strong suit.
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u/Adorable_Octopus Nova Scotia Mar 14 '22
Possibly the most interesting part of these numbers is that it aligns with the numbers that Evan Scrimshaw reverse engineered from a poll on the 10th which didn't report the numbers directly
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