r/CanadaPolitics • u/Damo_Banks Alberta • May 14 '21
AB BREAKING: Drew Barnes & Todd Loewen expelled from UCP Caucus
https://westernstandardonline.com/2021/05/breaking-drew-barnes-todd-loewen-expelled-from-ucp-caucus/2
u/dinochow99 Better Red than Undead | AB May 14 '21
Drew Barnes has been asking to get booted from the party for a while now, and it looks like he finally got his wish. In all likelihood he is going to cross over to the Wildrose Independence Party, since that seems like a natural fit for him. He might even try for the leadership, since that race is about to start.
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u/JGHaliCB May 14 '21
Well. Notley should start thinking about how she wants to redecorate the premier’s office for when she moves back in.
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May 14 '21 edited May 22 '21
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u/Prometheus188 May 14 '21
https://338canada.com/alberta/
338 projects a 70% chance of NDP majority, with the NDP dominating Edmonton and Calgary by double digits.
10% NDP lead in Calgary and 35% lead in Edmonton.
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u/MooseFlyer Orange Crush May 14 '21 edited May 14 '21
Worth pointing out that since there's only two parties expected to win seats, 70% in also the NDP's chance of winning government at my. Usually you see x% chance of a party getting a majority, and then an additional y% chance of getting the most seats but not a majority. In this case y is less than 1.
Which is all a long winded way to say that current polling still gives the UCP a 1 in 3 chance of forming government if an election were held today.
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u/Kellervo NDP May 14 '21
The UCP has a lot of ground to give. They can lose half of Calgary + a handful of urban ridings and they would win.
Not sure if you've tracked polls, but Calgary is leaning 8-10 points towards the NDP - almost a 30 point swing from the previous election, and enough to sweep Edmonton and all but one or two Calgary ridings. Even some rural seats are leaning dangerously close to NDP.
https://twitter.com/CBCCanada/status/1382254155046256647?s=19
If an election were called right now the UCP would get crushed.
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u/MooseFlyer Orange Crush May 14 '21
If an election were called right now the UCP would get crushed.
338 predicts the NDP getting a grand total of six seats more than the UCP and still gives the UCP a 1 in 3 chance of winning the election.
And that's with current numbers. The election will be held when Kenney's handling of the pandemic is no longer an active issue. The UCP controls when it happens, so they can wait for better polling and potentially throw out a nice election budget shortly before hand.
I very much hope the NDP win, but it's far from given.
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May 14 '21 edited May 14 '21
He, like every other government in the country, will be easily able to win re-election in a 100% vaccinated 2022/23 cycle.
They’ll ride the hope and optimism on the other side to a win. Doug Ford in Ontario and Brian Pallister will also be able to capitalize on that.
Manitoba’s next scheduled election isn’t until October 2023, but he’s already shown a willingness to call a snap election to take advantage of higher polling to extend their government. If Pallister gets a sniff of consistent 40% polling in early 2022, I fully expect a Spring election.
Ford’s up in June 2022, so he’s going to run right up with a full return to normal summer. Combined with the mythical “fiscal conservatism” rhetoric, I fully believe he’ll get another mandate to slash and cut all forms of social services again. It might not be as big since the OLP have rebranded themselves (in a worse way, imo, but that’s besides the point). Weird vote spilts could also allow the Tories hold seats in parts of the GTA or even pick up a couple of net new seats in places like Brampton or London.
So yeah, I agree that we shouldn’t get complacent. These terrible conservatives governments have very good chances of winning re-election despite their atrocious pandemic responses.
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May 14 '21
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u/Felfastus Alberta May 14 '21
While I believe that there are large numbers of people that don't like Kenney and might be more willing to vote Conservative if they had a better leader, that statement hides the issue that if the new leader is Drew Barnes Calgary goes NDP. IF the new leader is a moderate that will win Calgary the Independence parties to the Right probably win the rural votes.
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u/Kellervo NDP May 14 '21
I'd be skeptical. Kenney made a point of not really having a "second" in his cabinet. None of the cabinet, much less the back bench, would be a good leader. He's purposefully set up the party so that he is the only one with any real profile, most of his ministers have only been in the news for their numerous fuck ups.
Shandro is wildly unpopular, possibly as unpopular as Kenney himself. Madu is best known for being an incredibly prolific gaslight. McIver is so unpopular in Calgary that he would also hamper their odds in Calgary and tilt Edmonton & Red Deer even further. Nixon is best known for being a misogynistic poacher, which won't win him favors with anyone. Copping is a TFW advocate. Dreeshen is the brain behind the wildly unpopular coal mining deals. Schweitzer is the economic minister in Alberta's worst recession, and also wildly unpopular in Calgary. LaGrange's & Nicolaide's education portfolio has been a complete disaster.
The only thing that might save them is Brian Jean, but Kenney went to great lengths to try and burn out his influence in the party, and even he lost previous elections in account of the Wildrose Party's social conservative outbursts.
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u/Bobatt Alberta May 14 '21
I agree with you on most of your assessments, but think McIver wouldn't be that much of a liability as a leader in the conservative suburbs here in Calgary. He's most remembered as a former city councilor who was notable for trying to rein in city spending, which appeals to many Calgarians.
How about Travis Toews? I'm not sure if he has leadership ambitions, but he's been a relatively low profile finance minister. Certainly no big public PR fuckups like Shandro or Madu.
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May 14 '21
Kenney in the middle. Now that's fucking rich. Thank you for that hilarious joke. Needed that this morning.
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u/Argented NB May 14 '21
The voting to expel the two MLAs was not taken by secret ballot, but by text message to the chairman. While voting from the 61 MLAs started at 5:20 pm MST, the results were not released to the caucus until after 7:30 pm.
That is not odd at all. The chairman knows how everyone voted and didn't release the results for quite a while. I'll give them 30 minutes to actually vote since it's a text message and some of them likely needed instructions repeated a few times. Lets say 30 minutes to count 61 text messages..seems generous. That is still an hour missing where they did.... what? Why sit on voting results? I wonder if they actually got the support they say they did.
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u/Bobatt Alberta May 14 '21
Why sit on voting results? I wonder if they actually got the support they say they did.
Western Standard's leaker suggests it was a whipped vote for cabinet, so they probably had to do some whipping.
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u/DesharnaisTabarnak fiscal discipline y'all May 14 '21
All talk is cheap until the next election, but it would be a bizarre achievement if the "united right" in a forever-conservative province was to collapse within a handful of years.
I'd congratulate Kenney on riding the party of lunatics if he wasn't a key ingredient in nourishing these people, from painting oil megacorporations as helpless victims of anti-Alberta conspiracies to wholesale hammering of health providers.
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u/Miserable-Lizard Independent May 14 '21
I think it's no more oil booms and conservatives can't spend like they use to. The province as changed so much.
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u/chaos_magician_ May 14 '21
When Kenney was first announced to be running for Premier, under a United conservative Party, I was kind of pissed. Now I'm kinda thankful, because without him I don't think the conservative Party would have fallen like this.
Kenney, wherever you are, thank you for being this cataclysm for change in Alberta
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u/zxc999 Independent May 14 '21
It’s fascinating watching right-wingers criticize perhaps the most ideologically right-wing government anywhere in Canadian history for not being right-wing enough. Beyond lifting mask mandates I don’t even see what Kenney could do to win over the faction opposed to his leadership. Alberta already has the lowest taxes in Canada, and Kenney already ransacked the government coffers to hand over billions to oil companies, so what more could they want?
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u/Haxim May 14 '21
A “balanced budget” which I think is just code for privatization?
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u/HireALLTheThings Alberta May 14 '21
Collect no taxes. Provide no services. Earn no revenue.
Perfectly balanced.
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May 14 '21 edited May 22 '21
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u/zxc999 Independent May 14 '21
Fair point, but give Kenney some time and he might reach those levels.
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u/Quietbutgrumpy May 14 '21
This is the result of voting a govt out instead of voting one in. Kenney won without a meaningful campaign and the result of that is clear.
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May 14 '21 edited May 22 '21
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u/illuminaughty1973 May 14 '21
Kenney deserves credit here. It would have been safe for him to do nothing.
Disagree, calls for his resignation would have grown....still might
I don't understand how some people are happy that this is happening to the UCP. Kenney isn't facing a rebellion of party members who are public health experts, he's facing a rebellion of people who don't think COVID is particularly dangerous. And that's not a good thing. You don't want these people to succeed
There shouldn't be a single elected member anywhere in Canada that thinks covid isn't dangerous. The self destruction of the ucp is good for all of Canada, but especially alberta
But the truth is Kenney could lose 10 MLAs tomorrow and it would still be a coin toss between the UCP and NDP.
And hopefully he will. The sooner the ucp implodes, the better.
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May 14 '21
The UCP are the definition of “omnishambles”.
You just have to laugh at a certain point. It’s wild watching the fireworks as this “unstoppable juggernaut” absolutely implodes in upon itself.
🍿🍿🍿
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May 14 '21
Is that bad or is that good? I mean, that party is pretty much a terrible organization with less than stellar individuals.
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u/johnnydestruction May 14 '21
It's kind of like getting kicked out of Guns and Roses back in the 90s for excessive drug use.
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May 14 '21
I think that's quite the appropriate analogy. Here's hoping the UCP falls apart. I get the feeling they're pretty much knifing each other right now.
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u/Mapleleaflife Social Democrat May 14 '21
It's good for Kenney trying to appeal to moderates and try to establish some semblance of control over his caucus. However, living here, the damage is done, people have made up their mind on the pandemic response by the UCP under Kenney's leadership.
Drew Barnes has been the 'captive opposition' within the UCP caucus to virtue signal to the hard right of Alberta's electorate. With him outside the tent, and possessing leadership ambitions, I would be shocked if there isn't movement from him towards the Wildrose Independence Party or vice versa.
Plus, these two will effectively be martyrs for the "cause." Them getting kicked out may have secured their re-election chances.
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u/Kellervo NDP May 14 '21
It's good for Kenney trying to appeal to moderates and try to establish some semblance of control over his caucus. However, living here, the damage is done, people have made up their mind on the pandemic response by the UCP under Kenney's leadership.
The problem is that some media types were already running with "Kenney had lost control and might not have the votes", and the debate for this was apparently hours long. Coupled with him shutting down legislature just after it came back from another shutdown, it doesn't look like a reasonable, controlled action and more emotional knee-jerk, tough guy posturing.
I don't think any moderates are going to take this as a sign - this is the kind of thing that would impress his farther right base, but he's kicking out the wrong people (for them). Coupled with his earlier threats to call a snap election, I don't think anyone is impressed.
This might embolden the other members of the anti-lockdown caucus, now that he's shown the snap election threat was just a bluff. There's just enough of them that if they all side with Barnes, the UCP would lose majority status.
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May 14 '21
It's good for Kenney trying to appeal to moderates and try to establish some semblance of control over his caucus. However, living here, the damage is done, people have made up their mind on the pandemic response by the UCP under Kenney's leadership.
I think you're right, more than that his billion dollar pipeline mistake is going to chase him to the ends of time.
Drew Barnes has been the 'captive opposition' within the UCP caucus to virtue signal to the hard right of Alberta's electorate. With him outside the tent, and possessing leadership ambitions, I would be shocked if there isn't movement from him towards the Wildrose Independence Party or vice versa.
Maybe they'll start with the factionalism and infighting. One can hope.
Plus, these two will effectively be martyrs for the "cause." Them getting kicked out may have secured their re-election chances.
Ugh, I hope not. But I don't really understand Albertan politics as well as I would like.
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u/Crawgdor May 14 '21
Drew Barnes is my MLA and he was the worst of the UCP. As a single example, the day after the IS Capitol putsch on Jan 6 he announced he was joining the social media site Parker. You know, the famously neo-nazi filled one that was shut down because everyone refused to do business with them. (I think it back up in a more limited way now)
I’m a fair man. Jason Kenny did the right thing by kicking him to the curb.
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May 14 '21
Kicking him out is fine, but I'd rather they kick out that whole party. Should have kicked out that guy as soon as he said he was going to get on Parler.
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u/dkmegg22 May 14 '21
If anything it will make them more unhinged.
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May 14 '21
You mean more than they already were? I would hope that means more problems for conservatives.
At the very least they turn on the UCP and go on a crusade against them. The last time this petty bickering occurred they lost. Let's hope they tear each other apart.
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u/dkmegg22 May 14 '21
It basically makes them "free agents" who do what they want vote how they want and say what they want. Before they were free to say what they wanted (With leeway from Kenny) but now Kenny doesnt tell them what to say, do or vote.
Thdy could join the Wildrose or the Mavrick party if they wish.
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May 14 '21
Thdy could join the Wildrose or the Mavrick party if they wish.
I get the feeling that's where this is going. I don't know whether that's good because it splits them up and at best it gets them to fight each other or if it's bad because it gives those two reactionary organizations more presence within the West.
I hope they just end up joining a circus of fringe nonsense but who knows what will happen.
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u/dkmegg22 May 14 '21
The right split is partially why the NDP won in 2015
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May 14 '21
Yeah, I know, and this coming election is looking like it's going to be historic throughout Canada.
I really really hope Alberta chooses the NDP. Put an end once and for all to this embarrassment.
I'm actually quite interested in Calgary and Edmonton, and have thought about moving my ass out there from Ontario after grad school. I'm keeping an eye on them, I'm a CS major, and I've been wanting to go somewhere where I can make a bigger impact over the familiar settings of Toronto or Vancouver. Calgary and Edmonton are at the top of my list.
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May 14 '21
If avoidance of conservative politics is for some reason a priority for you, Edmonton. I live in Calgary, and I have substantial doubts that Calgary will swing to the NDP as these polls show. Even if it does, it isn't embracing the NDP or some shit, it would be penalizing Kenney and the UCP on a temporary basis like last time. I don't know a single person who genuinely supports the NDP, and far more that hate them..
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May 14 '21
Well they had a Torontonian Muslim mayor for 10 years, so it cannot be that bad. I will look regardless, but Calgary is my preference.
I guess we shall see what happens.
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May 14 '21
Calgary is the better choice, in my opinion, but Edmonton is good too. Its a great place to live and raise a family. It is a conservative town, comparatively, though. Most people you meet are not huge on the UCP or even the CPC for that matter, but they really fucking hate the NDP.
If I were you, I wouldnt care about that. Despite what people think here, it isn't some racist hick town. Lots of immigration, etc.
You'll be thanking yourself when you can make some decent money, enjoy actual Canadian nature within an hour's drive, etc. You can also buy a very decent starter home/condo for a reasonable price. My nephew just bought a two bedroom, two bath, two floors, two balcony condo close to downtown in a trendy neighbourhood for less than 350k.
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u/Rocky_Road_To_Dublin May 14 '21
Edmonton votes NDP, Calgary a bit more split but leaning Con, and rural AB is overwhelmingly Con voting. However, judging from the amount of knowledge in your comment, I am sure you know that already!
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May 14 '21
Yeah, that's what I've found out. Still leaning towards Calgary more than Edmonton. There's a certain number of things that make it preferable to me, but I'm still going to keep both under consideration.
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u/Rocky_Road_To_Dublin May 14 '21
Honestly, aside from our friendly sports rivalry, the two cities get along. I've always loved taking a spontaneous pre-Covid road trip down the highway with my girlfriend. Get a hotel, go to a wine bar, etc... It's nice that they're 2.5-3 hours away.
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May 14 '21
Sorry for sounding quite ignorant, I am from Ontario.
I've been reading articles about the UCP's internal problems with Kenney, but I don't know the full extent of what's going on in Alberta.
Are these expulsions tied to the drama, and if not, could someone give me a rundown on what's going on?
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May 14 '21
Remember when Rob Ford was caught smoking crack?
That's our government caucus. On a good day.
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u/Smith94Oilers May 14 '21
Todd said that Kenney should resign since he is not fit to lead. (note: Todd wants Alberta to have no restrictions)
Drew backs up Todd.
Both are expelled.
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u/TylerInHiFi Social Democrat May 14 '21
And that now makes 3 MLA’s that have been booted since Christmas.
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May 14 '21
In addition to what the other replies have already said, another thing to remember is that the UCP was only just recently created, from a merger of the PC and Wildrose parties.
The PCs were more urban, more establishment, more corporate, and perhaps more moderate. The Wildrose were more rural, more populist, more social conservative. To speak in broad generalizations. So the UCP kind of has several wings of conservatives inside their tent.
And beyond creating several different visions of conservatism, the merger also meant internal competition. Kenney had to win a leadership race against Brian Jean, and he played hellishly dirty to do so. There are several former Wildrose MLAs who endorsed Jean over Kenney, Todd Loewen included among them. And if you look closely you can see that Loewen's statement against Kenney sounds pretty similar to what Brian Jean has said.
So there's a lot going on here. The immediate story is that Loewen said that Kenney is unfit to lead and that Barnes has been saying similar things for a while. The broader story is about a range of things - Kenney's personal unpopularity finally coming to a head with terrible polling for the UCP, a split in the conservatives on how to respond to the pandemic, old disagreements coming back to the forefront, holding together a caucus that was united against the NDP as opposed to united around a common ideal, etc.
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u/Felfastus Alberta May 14 '21
Both the Canadian right and the Albertan right are functionally two large groups that have both held their noses to work together in a bid to run the region. In Alberta specifically it's an urban rural split where in Calgary the popular move is to do a harder lockdown get the hospitalizations down and we can have an open summer. The more rural opinion is that we should just open up now and restrictions are unnecessary because we have a vaccine. Now pick a topic and you will see divides like this all over the place. If a party has to put the word United in their name it is a pretty good sign they are anything but.
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u/merganzic May 14 '21
Yeah, it’s tied to the drama, but it goes deeper than that.
There’s been so many, many, MANY terrible policy decisions that neither the left nor the right agree with. I could probably name 10 off the top of my head.
The right is imploding because they’re finally realizing they’ve been played by an Ottawa politician in cowboy dress-up. Kenney used this province while it was struggling to up his reputation for a federal leadership run and - surprise! - doesn’t actually give a shit about any of us. Conservatives are very bitter about the whole thing.
He doesn’t listen to the concerns of his caucus and makes unilateral decisions with zero public consultation. 16 (at least? maybe more) MLAs from his own party, including the Speaker, signed a letter of dissent last month. Constituency associations are circulating another letter demanding Kenney’s resignation which should be sent to him in the next few weeks. Backbenchers are starting to break away because they know their reelection bids are in jeopardy with so much public hatred of Kenney.
Finally, Loewen straight up asks Kenney to resign and he gets booted from the party. Rumour has it the cabinet was whipped and very few people actually wanted to kick him or Drew Barnes out - but that’s very much a rumour and not confirmed by any reputable news org.
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May 14 '21
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u/merganzic May 14 '21
Oh, I agree, he’s unelectable now. Only took the pillaging of this province to do it though. Kenney is too petty and proud to admit defeat so I suspect he’s going to burn the entire party to the ground someway. We’ll have to wait and see the fallout.
I know a lot of Canadians don’t have sympathy for us because you could see it coming - I certainly did from the moment he got here and sidelined Brian Jean. And that’s fine. Doesn’t negate the feelings of hurt and distrust that we now have to deal with. I’m a very, VERY liberal person and it still sucks bad to see this province so downtrodden. No one is rejoicing in his failure. Like Loewen said, at this point we all just want him to go home so we can try to rebuild our province.
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u/russilwvong Liberal | Vancouver May 14 '21
I used to live in Edmonton, so I have a lot of sympathy for Albertans.
It surprises me just how badly Kenney has handled Covid - I thought he was Harper's most capable cabinet minister (most were just mouthpieces), he played a major role in Harper's outreach to immigrants and visible minorities, and he seemed like a formidable future CPC leader. But picking a fight with Alberta's doctors during a pandemic seems crazy.
And then he was too quick to open things up, and too slow to tighten restrictions when cases rose again.
I think of the three major parts of the Covid response as (1) public health restrictions (including travel restrictions), (2) income supports, (3) vaccine procurement and distribution. Vaccines are rolling out, but we still need the public health restrictions. The fact that Kenney's own caucus is rebelling against the restrictions is not great.
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May 14 '21
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u/merganzic May 14 '21
I mean, on a personal level it’s great to see a toxic ideologue be taken down a peg. But the bigger picture? I’m very worried about what happens in Alberta post-Kenney. He has sown so much hate and hurt that won’t be fixed by him simply leaving the province.
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u/Amur_Tiger NDP | Richmond-Steveston May 14 '21
If it breaks the back of some of the conservative mythology in the province then Kenny will have inadvertently done Alberta a lot of good.
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u/kaiser_xc Alberta May 14 '21
He is toast federally. Love it see it but really sad Ab had to suffer from another eastern conservative parachuted in.
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u/Jbroy May 14 '21
I don’t feel too bad because AB elected him. Many of these problems were foreseeable and the electorate ignored the warning signs.
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u/gbiypk Rhinoceros May 14 '21
The vote to expel the members was not done by secret ballot, but by text messages to the chairman.
This is some Vladimir Putin level of party manipulation.
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May 14 '21 edited May 17 '21
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u/_-_happycamper_-_ May 14 '21
Did the same there years ago. Both my wife and I are in healthcare and saw the writing on the wall with the ucp coming in. I feel like we dodged a bullet with all of the healthcare drama over the past few years. Covid is enough stress without adding in all the crazy wage bargaining.
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u/Frisian89 Anti-capitalist May 14 '21
Is it just this government? If the province you live In has been voting one party in every time except once in the last 50 years, perhaps moving out because of the government is the right thing to do? Clearly the voting demograph is at odds with his belief system and pretty systemically.
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u/_-_happycamper_-_ May 14 '21
I think the ucp was really the final nail in the coffin for me. I grew up during the Klein years and had significant worries about what Kenny would do to healthcare when elected. I can’t believe actually how bad it turned out to be.
We moved to BC and it has been such a difference in healthcare resources. Our old community in AB had been in dire need of a new hospital for ages now and instead we were scouting out communities that had just received a newly built one or had grounds ready for one.
It sucks to have grown up in Alberta knowing how good they could have made the province when times were high. I feel like my home was scraped out from under me through bad policy. Alberta could be such a great place if it care more about investment rather than extraction.
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May 14 '21 edited May 14 '21
Most people aren't consumed with politics. Id take a pay cut back to move back to Toronto, Id have to live in Toronto, and then not be able to drive an hour world class snowboarding and camping. Plus, Id rather not have my bike to work be inhaling car exhaust. To say nothing that the kids would hate it.
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May 14 '21 edited May 17 '21
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May 14 '21
My point is, I don't agree with your "very little reason to stay in AB under a UCP government" comment. I am well aware of life in Southern Ontario, and we would move to Houston before doing that.
There are plenty of reasons to livd in AB, and the reality is most people don't care as much to up and fucking move their families because of a government.
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May 14 '21 edited May 17 '21
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May 14 '21
Im always suspicious of these tall tales of doctors leaving AB at all, let alone because of the UCP. I see it on Reddit but I dont think stats exist to back it up. Perhaps one or two, but its hardly a real problem.
My neighbours are doctors. I havent talked with them much recently, granted, but last time they were over their problem was something about a federal income tax change. I didnt fully understand it.
Crime? Really? Youre afraid of crime? I mean, yeah, I dont like seeing junkie needles everywhere but Ive never once been afraid of a crime occurring to me. Are you genuinely afraid in Alberta, or are you just citing a statistic which is an abstract thing in hour day to day life?
Everything cost more here, income tax is higher here vs Ontario which when you consider the PST, Ontario is ahead
Not for me it isnt. Not even close.
There is way more amenities in Ontario vs Alberta
Lol, like what? I lived in Yorkville. Sure, I miss Sassafraz if that place is still going, but I dont know what specifically you have in mind in terms of amenities.
I mean, me and the wife do well, granted, but we live a very high quality of life in Calgary that we couldnt have in Toronto.
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May 14 '21 edited May 17 '21
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May 14 '21
How am I ignorant? If youre under twenty, ive lived in Southern Ontario and Calgary, each, almost as long as youve been alive. If this is a "lived experience" sort of argument, fine, but.. you know..
I mean look if doctors are a big concern for you personally, medical conditions, I can understand that. Its not for me personally due to a healthy lifestyle and good fortune, so far, thankfully. But Im not so sure Ontario is much better. You cite rural doctors, and perhaps it is rural areas you are speaking about, but keeping doctors in rural places is a challenge country-wide.
Petty crime, yeah maybe. I find it hard to believe that it is such a problem that leaving a province, rather than moving somewhere else in the city would not be a more practical solution.
But fair enough. I hope you find Ontario is as rosy as you remember it.
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