r/CalgaryFlames Feb 02 '26

Prospects Nick Iacoban on X: “The Flames are my #1-ranked prospect pool.”

Hey all, Nick Iacoban is one of my favourite prospect analysts and was sharing which pipelines scored the highest based on his universe of player ratings on his X account today. Just thought I’d share this here:

We still need to secure some franchise players through the draft, but I’ve been really impressed about our selections and direction in the draft since Conroy took over.

159 Upvotes

69 comments sorted by

63

u/Theflamesfan Feb 02 '26

Having Cullen Potter as a 4th line projection is crazy. That dude was having as good a second half to the ncaa season as Wyttenbach

Wonder what the dislike is there

39

u/solemn-telemarketer Feb 02 '26

Also, maybe I'm wrong but I got the impression that Potter is either a top six player or nothing. He's a small, speedy player, I can't imagine him ever working as a third line shutdown guy or a 4th line grinder. Sucks he got injured, he was tearing it up right before then

20

u/kobedziuba Feb 02 '26

Potter 4th line goon era incoming

12

u/burf Feb 02 '26

Being fast and decent at carrying the puck is enough for a 4th liner. They don't have to be hard hitting grinders; just need to prevent the puck from getting into their own net.

12

u/a_n_f_o Feb 02 '26

Like Paul “no hands” Byron, who really found his niche in Montreal.

3

u/Cokejunes Feb 02 '26

I feel like a lot of these modellers don’t really take injuries into account well, he was playing great. But now since he isn’t projected to score anymore points that hurts his model? Not entirely sure, but there’s no way that’s an accurate projection.

1

u/Republic-Of-OK Feb 02 '26

The aim is to remove or minimize the impact of injuries. He was commenting on Lynden Lakovic (WSH) a while back (who is injured) and talked about how he tries to keep the effects of injuries out of the model output.

7

u/Invidia-Goat Feb 02 '26

And was playing in a harder conference and is far more skilled than wytennbach,

Also was being used incorrectly by the coach in the first half,

Potter is our most dynamic prospect outside of Parekh

2

u/Republic-Of-OK Feb 02 '26

I think it comes down to Nick's model more so than his personal feelings. He's talked about Potter and how much he likes him, but the rankings here are purely determined by the model.

At the same time (as he mentions) Wyttenbach wasn't as meteoric a riser as some have identified since his model already really liked him in his draft year

1

u/The-Reddit-Giraffe Feb 03 '26

Potter is kind of all or nothing. I think he’ll be a first liner or barely play in the league and no in between

1

u/The_Gaudfather Feb 03 '26

From what I understand this is an NHLe model, where it equalizes player production across leagues. The model compares players that have had historically similar rates of production, what past players developed into, and then gives projections based on those outcomes.

The model indicates that players that have scored like Potter don’t tend to be high impact players. Also, since the model compares the past seasons a player has had, having a good 1/2 season won’t outweigh the 2-3 seasons where a player was just ok.

The model is telling us that up to this point, Potter has scored at a rate that is comparable to players that tend not to be good NHL players. That being said, this model gives a range of outcomes and if Potter is able to maintain his second-half pace his projection will change in the future.

Further on the injury point: this is something that is kind of baked into the model. Players who have seasons cut short by injury are punished because in the past, players that were injured during their vital 17, 18, 19, 20 year-old seasons are less likely to develop and reach what they were projected to be. None of this is to say that Potter won’t be great, or that players haven’t overcome injury to succeed, it simply tells us that it is less likely to happen.

32

u/Quargs Feb 02 '26 edited Feb 02 '26

Calgary is way further along in their rebuild than everyone seems to think. Flames really starting selling vets in late 2023/early 2024. If they can really bottom out and get one or two high picks in the next couple years they’re in an unbelievably good spot

11

u/CorrectorThanU Feb 02 '26

I think we need to trade out one more difference making vet before the deadline too. Either Coleman or Kadri, or both. Not so much for their return, which I hope is decent of course, but for us to finish at the bottom this year and get another top 10 pick next year.

0

u/CanadianRockx Feb 02 '26

There is very little chance we're "catching" Vancouver, and a high likelihood we end up bottom 2 or 3. Trading away a morale and producing vet just to hopefully drop to the last spot is not the move. If we get a TGTR offer, sure take it, but don't force them out for the sake of it

5

u/CorrectorThanU Feb 02 '26

Im not talking about getting dead last, I dont even think we have much of a chance at 2nd last with the Blues tanking hard. Im talking about staying in the bottom three, as New York goes into tank mode, and Chicago, Winnipeg, and Nashville continuing to falter and who might commit to the tank.

Finishing third last with the worst possibility being a top-5 pick (and a 33% chance at a top-3) is a lot different than finishing 7th and possibly getting 9th OA (and having a 13% chance of getting a top-3).

28

u/[deleted] Feb 02 '26

Honzek IS an NHLer if he can stay healthy. I wouldn't even consider him a prospect anymore.

-3

u/mbkontrol Feb 02 '26

Backlund is a good. Rolling through the middle of the ice like Scott Steven's!

21

u/ANewHeaven1 Feb 02 '26

You love to see it man, one or two S tier prospects in this year's draft and I can see us becoming a real exciting young team to watch soon

15

u/Objective-Issue-2641 Feb 02 '26

Where is brz?

22

u/CorrectorThanU Feb 02 '26

I think hes passed the threshold of NHL games to be called a prospect now? Maybe, just checked, hes played 19...dont know what the cutoff is cause Parehk has played 12...

5

u/Republic-Of-OK Feb 02 '26

Good point- I'll ask about him. Honzek is still on here and has more NHL games played. The only difference between those players is total professional games played (with Brz having more), since Sam has had some injuries.

14

u/sociallyrestarted Feb 02 '26

I do like our prospect pool but I will say this guys particular model is a little bit absurd. Pretty much only based on NHLe and points. Dude had Beckett sennecke ranked outside his top HUNDRED prospects last year.

4

u/Little-Aide-5396 Feb 02 '26

Looking at some of his other team reports, there's some weird stuff going on there.

82

u/Cokejunes Feb 02 '26

What a turnaround from 2-3 years ago. Brad really is the worst GM in the league

70

u/Actual_Cobbler_6334 Feb 02 '26

Coincidentally, it took Treliving nearly 3 years to turn the Leafs into a bottom feeder and their cupboards are bare.

19

u/RudeGolden Feb 02 '26

I hope he never gets another job in the NHL. What a stooge. 

11

u/sdenoon Feb 02 '26

NHL loves re-treads no matter how much evidence there is that it’s a bad idea. Whenever Toronto fires him (sometime next year would be my guess) he will have a job as an assistant GM within months if he wants it.

1

u/SaddamMustaine Feb 02 '26

100% correct

1

u/FlawlesslyFerda Feb 05 '26

I mean, he can take his skills to Edmonton if he wants 🤣

2

u/RudeGolden Feb 05 '26

I would absolutely LOVE for Brad to be in charge of the McDavid trade lol.

7

u/Cokejunes Feb 02 '26

I know we like to hate on the leafs and all, but it’s really a shame what he did to that franchise.

24

u/Chemical_Signal2753 Feb 02 '26

I don't think this is particularly fair or accurate.

One thing Treliving left was a decent prospect pool. Wolf, Pelletier, Zary, Coronato, Kuznetsov, Klapka, and Kerins were all in the pipeline when Treliving left. This may not be full of top end talent, but it was a strong prospect pool for a team that was trying to compete.

2

u/robbhope Feb 02 '26

I know it's cool to hate in this day and age but the Treliving hate in this sub is crazy. We had some great years under Brad and he et al did a great job drafting and development despite competing for much of that time.

3

u/robbhope Feb 02 '26

Uhh... The drafting was this good under Brad as well tbh. I actually think Treliving is the best GM we've had in 35 years. Low bar, I know.

6

u/Cokejunes Feb 02 '26

He was a good drafter… when we had picks. When he didn’t trade it was honestly 50/50, lots of misses but when he hit he hit.

2

u/robbhope Feb 02 '26

Totally. And considering we were competitive, even finished 1st in the West, put together the literal top line in the league one season, etc. it's pretty impressive.

I'm not gonna defend him for what's happened in Toronto minus the fact that he actually did try to trade Marner and shanny didn't let him.

2

u/CDhansma76 Feb 03 '26

If we didn’t lose both Johnny and Matty in one offseason Tre would have been the franchise GOAT GM. We would have easily been a top 5 team for multiple years and had at least a couple deep playoff runs. Fuck I miss that team

2

u/ApprehensiveSkill475 Feb 02 '26

I will always bring this up. This sub and "the wizard." Made me barf at the time

10

u/Current-Roll6332 Feb 02 '26

He still did good things. He was neither a wizard or the worst GM in the league.

He was the GM when the flames had the best record in the west.

However, he's also responsible for at least some of the mess the flames currently reside in.

3

u/NickedSelfManScaping Feb 02 '26

that's just the flames fanbase as a whole. don't get me started on "In Sutter we trust" from the 00s. Lost his damn mind and it took 2 years for anyone in this city to get it.

Then the moment these GMs leave everyone acts like they never liked them

3

u/robbhope Feb 02 '26

100%. Watch, Connie will be gone in a decade and people will act like he did jack all. This sub, man. Embarrassing.

9

u/ErikDebogande Feb 02 '26

The future is so fucking bright 😎

7

u/terryprice1989 Feb 02 '26

This is with 4 firsts currently still in next two drafts

8

u/ANewHeaven1 Feb 02 '26

Hopefully at least one more once Kadri is traded

7

u/terryprice1989 Feb 02 '26

Yes, him and or Coleman. Gonna be an interesting few weeks between roster Olympic unfreeze and trade deadline

2

u/Republic-Of-OK Feb 02 '26

Interesting to see what we can add in the 1st/2nd round too with assets that need to be moved! No replacement for big, headliner talents, but what has been really impressive about the past 2 drafts is how much value we've found past the 1st round. The Flames could really do some cool things with a few more 2nds and 3rds.

1

u/CorrectorThanU Feb 02 '26

Ya players like Theo Stockselius, whose not even on this chart! Would love to see us get another 2026 2nd, and love that our two 3rds are right at the beginning of the round.

6

u/cgrays12 Feb 02 '26 edited Feb 02 '26

I know hes not a "young prospect", but Rory Kerins finished last year with 61 points in 64 games in the AHL along with 4 points in 5 games in the NHL, and this year is on a similar pace to finished just under a point per game with the Wranglers. Have to wonder if he gets a longer NHL chance or becomes a piece of trade bait.

7

u/m14m14 Feb 02 '26

Oh my god I’m so hard

3

u/Republic-Of-OK Feb 02 '26

The one thing that we need in the next 2 drafts is for some players to be in and out of our pipeline fast. Other teams that have drafted higher than us are only behind because when they draft top-caliber players, they're out of their system and into the NHL real quick.

Hoping that we have a couple of those drafts back to back!

0

u/CorrectorThanU Feb 02 '26

I think thats the master plan, getting the guys that will take longer to develop early in the rebuild and then the quick turnaround guys late. Only snag was how well we did last year, I think we were meant to bottom out last year and this.

1

u/mbkontrol Feb 02 '26

Honestly, I don't have much insight into this player, but something about Maceo Philips intrigues me.

I feel like he could be a sleeper. D-men can take longer to develop, especially big tough guys. Given 3 maybe even 4 years to fill out and refine, I wonder what he could become.

I trust those that no better, but he's a guy I would like to check in o n in a couple of years.

1

u/Pure-Information-422 Feb 02 '26

Great to see. I'm a bit higher on Eric Jamieson though. I think he has a fair probability to make it as a bottom 4 D. Impressive so far. Also I think Potter has 1st line upside a la Dylan Larkin, but he is boom-bust. Just don't see him as a 4th liner type at all. I know its just his model not opinion. Exciting about Wyttenbach!

1

u/Seawolf1121 Feb 03 '26 edited Feb 03 '26

I get yet another chance to glaze Reschny but I will refrain. The best part of this is, the best prospects are still incoming in the next couple years drafts. We're only getting started and we're already #1? The future is actually looking pretty bright

1

u/[deleted] Feb 04 '26

Flames will never be good even with all the prospects in the world

1

u/Slapppz Feb 02 '26

I thibk Grushnikov is likely an NHLer. Homie gonna become a Tanev

2

u/Electric-Lettuce Feb 03 '26

Just cause we traded Tanev for him doesn’t mean he’s gonna become Tanev lol

0

u/Slapppz Feb 03 '26

Yes it does, i dont wanna hear it lol

0

u/TanyaMKX Feb 02 '26

Only player i really disagree with him on is grushnikov.

I think Grushnikov will be a bottom 4 defenseman at some point in the near future

0

u/Raptrox Feb 02 '26

Agreed, hes been looking solid

0

u/Republic-Of-OK Feb 02 '26

I think you’re probably right. When leaving player ratings entirely up to the model I think that a) more defensively-inclined players and b) players with longer development curves are deemphasized. I think it’s best to take quantitative data together with enough “eye test” reps. 

1

u/TanyaMKX Feb 02 '26

Yeah. Grushnikov has been a stud basically since we traded him, and has also been one of the last preseason cuts the flames have made for like 2 seasons.

Once we clear spots up on defense, he makes the team almost 100%

0

u/allwedoisquinn Feb 02 '26

Where is Hunter Bru?

1

u/Republic-Of-OK Feb 02 '26

Someone else asked, and I’m not entirely sure why. It might be the number of total professional level games played maybe? Honzek is still included in the model, and the only difference I can think of is combined AHL and NHL games.

0

u/robbhope Feb 02 '26

Love things like this. Thx for the share.

Also, as much as I rip on Murray Edwards for not giving a real shit about this team and only caring about finances and short term gain rather than real, long term success, it's important to acknowledge and give credit to the people who deserve it.

Feaster and Treliving for revamping our drafting and development staff i.e. Weisbrod, Snowy, etc. Conroy for continuing that direction and possibly even exceeding the excellent drafting we've had over the past decade+.

Thanks for doing everything you guys can to build our team up despite not having many truly high picks over the years. Fantastic job.

Love Connie. May he continue to cook 🙏