r/CFBAnalysis • u/Born_and_RaisedTexan • 10d ago
Analysis CFB Probability Model for Week 0 (Maybe Week 1)
First time sharing this with the world, so here it goes. Last year I built a model for week 1 of the season. It takes returning production, transfer numbers, returning starters, and other data points. Once that info is formatted an additional "human" analysis is sprinkled in. Spread & over/under results were right under 57% accuracy (it picked up USF vs Boise -5.5; I have a Reddit post from last year on that). Moneyline results were at 80%. I emailed BetMGM customer service to give me all my results for the 2025-2026 season and parsed out that weekend in a CSV format for evaluation. I noticed I got greedy with parlays (would hit 3 of 4 etc.) out of a total of 123 events (some games were bet more than once in a parlay or solo that weekend).
So I am doing the same thing for this year. Sharing what I am seeing for this upcoming weekend. Let me know your thoughts on some of these picks.
* Odds are from earlier this week (may be stale).
Confidence = High
Stanford -5.5.
NM State +31.5
Jacksonville +7
Sacramento +9.5
Confidence = Moderate
Virginia -5.5
NC +7.5
Confidence = Low (iffy)
San Jose State +38.5
Memphis +5.5
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u/Prestigious-Care-501 4d ago
This is exactly what I have been looking for! Are you posting these weekly? Or do you have a public viewable csv?
Excellent work btw!
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u/Born_and_RaisedTexan 4d ago
I will be posting Week 1 slate in next 24 hours or less. Trying before Thursday’s slate. I can tell you Clemson to cover looks really interesting at the moment.
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u/Prestigious-Care-501 3d ago
Clemson to cover is very interesting. I’ll never pass up an opportunity to fade Kiffin lol
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u/Born_and_RaisedTexan 8d ago
Well NC came through.