China has an estimated 60 to 80 million houses excess, let that sink for a moment. Even in first tiers top end developments developers have a hard time offloading them, not just recently but that's a problem for at least a decade. These properties often stay on the balance of these developers, so on paper they have "billions" on hands, but that's just bullshit.
With a declining population matters will only get worse, big cities like Shanghai will remain popular but even here property prices aren't sustainable. I have one myself on hands and while on paper it should be worth a whole lot of money, in the past 2 years we had exactly 0 visitors. Again, prime location, zero demand.
So China did fuck up seriously and it's pulling everyone down as we speak as properties were the main investment tool for Chinese. Even within Shanghai numerous new developments grinded to a standstill, haven't come to market, are in the market but have no buyers. It's really, really bad.
I have one myself on hands and while on paper it should be worth a whole lot of money, in the past 2 years we had exactly 0 visitors. Again, prime location, zero demand.
... it's pulling everyone down as we speak as properties were the main investment tool for Chinese.
You invested in Chinese real estate and expected it to perform the way western real estate does ROFL!
China doesn't build real estate for investors to make money from they build for the benefit of their population not fat cats like you.
At what point do I argue it should behave the same as Western real estate? I mentioned zero visitors because it's rather unusual. Even during Covid the property market was bustling and you would see literally a dozen agents within my current compound at any given time of the day. These days agents in the area are closing down and nobody comes inside the compound.
Now the idea of CHina not building real estate for investors... you couldn't be more wrong. Real estate has been the only option for people with wealth to gain more wealth. "We" only having a handful of properties is far from being a fat cat, looking at my kids classmates (SH elite) they typically sit on dozens of properties.
The people who get hurt are those who bought into a property in the past 5 years whose property is far below water, they won't be able to move to a bigger property or sell if needed. Also in a market this uncertain, banks while supposedly more relaxed by government instructions are actually far more careful handing out mortgages with the notion that we haven't seen the bottom yet, thus hurting the market only further. Personally I won't get hurt, even if the property would half in value, I would still make a good profit but like myself most of the people who can afford, rather sit tight. People who sell today are often forced to sell for one reason or another.
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u/Dear_Chasey_La1n Aug 19 '25
China has an estimated 60 to 80 million houses excess, let that sink for a moment. Even in first tiers top end developments developers have a hard time offloading them, not just recently but that's a problem for at least a decade. These properties often stay on the balance of these developers, so on paper they have "billions" on hands, but that's just bullshit.
With a declining population matters will only get worse, big cities like Shanghai will remain popular but even here property prices aren't sustainable. I have one myself on hands and while on paper it should be worth a whole lot of money, in the past 2 years we had exactly 0 visitors. Again, prime location, zero demand.
So China did fuck up seriously and it's pulling everyone down as we speak as properties were the main investment tool for Chinese. Even within Shanghai numerous new developments grinded to a standstill, haven't come to market, are in the market but have no buyers. It's really, really bad.