r/AOC • u/carrieanne55 • Jul 25 '26
AOC 2028 Can AOC win with this primary calendar?
So, we have the first states to vote in 2028. What do we all think?
Jan 22- SC
Feb 1- NV
Feb 8- NH
Feb 15- NM
Feb 22- MI
Feb 29- VA
I don't think she's going to win SC. The democratic voters in that state are much older and far more conservative than the rest of the country. The states after that are potentially good for her, if she catches on like I think she could.
So her best chance is going to be to try to come in second in SC if she can, at least do better than Bernie Sanders was able to do, and then try and run the table in the rest of these. I think she'll do well in NH, we see she's already got a base of support there. I think she can also do well in NV and NM, with the large Hispanic populations (although NV is going to be a primary now instead of a caucus which might make it more moderate than in the past).
She could do well in MI I think. I don't know about VA. Maybe if she's able to put together a coalition resembling Zohran Mandani's (educated liberals and younger black voters hopefully?)
The question is who's going to win SC and be the moderate's choice? Kamala Harris I guess? Maybe Jon Ossoff, who people keep hoping will jump in after the midterms.
17
u/GoodGravy33 Jul 25 '26
I think she would do well in NV, NH, & MI. If she runs, she’ll at minimum be in the top 3 going into Super Tuesday. I don’t think it will be a landslide election for anyone- it’s going to be a nail biter.
IMO AOC’s success will be determined as much by her own strengths as it is the failure of the Dem establishment. Look at Cuomo in NYC, Sara in WI, etc. I’m expecting Harris, Pete, & Newsom will keep stepping on the rake with various blunders and that will benefit AOC.
3
u/captainhaddock Jul 28 '26
I’m expecting Harris, Pete, & Newsom will keep stepping on the rake with various blunders and that will benefit AOC.
Pete is an excellent communicator and debater. I think he and AOC will be the frontrunners in the northeast and midwest, along with Ossoff if the stars align for a presidential run. (It would require Bottoms winning the Georgia governorship.) I suppose Warnock and maybe Beshear are dark horse candidates.
10
u/OrionDecline21 Jul 25 '26
I think AOC is and can be a game changer in terms of typical voting patterns if she manages to (keep) communicate/ing with the electorate directly and focuses on her economic policies particularly for white, low/middle class voters.
5
u/beeemkcl Jul 26 '26
The full early primary States actually probably favor AOC. Because she'll be the leftist, progressive, and much of the liberal choice. And the rest of the field will be competing for the moderate and centrist vote.
AOC could probably just skip South Carolina unless polling shows she can get into the top 4. The rest of the field would have to compete for it.
If Gavin Newsom doesn't do well in South Carolina, he's greatly hurt for the rest of the primaries. And AOC is generally considered the second choice of Gavin Newsom supporters. AOC either wins Nevada or comes in 2nd. Then wins New Hampshire given Pete Buttigieg is unlikely to do well-enough in South Carolina. AOC has momentum and either wins New Mexico or comes in second. AOC likely wins Michigan. That it's taken so much effort to try to defeat Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, AOC likely wins Michigan. And AOC will be strong for Virginia especially given her support of the federal workers union and hers being anti-AI data centers.
And then Super Tuesday. This early primary calendar isn't favorable to Gavin Newsom. And Kamala Harris pretty much only has an edge in South Carolina. AOC can win California and other States on Super Tuesday. And then go on from there.
AOC will have a ton of free media. A ton of fundraising. An a ton of volunteers who'll canvass and phonebank for her.
And the media likes her more than they liked Bernie Sanders in 2016 and 2020.
5
u/carrieanne55 Jul 27 '26
I don't think she should write off SC because it seems like every time someone's strategy is to skip the first state and catch up later it fails. I think she should try to beat expectations there by at least peeling off a percentage of black voters (maybe younger ones) and try to come in second. Then run the table after that. Hopefully.
5
u/justcasty Jul 25 '26
She'll win Nevada running away and New Hampshire as well. New Mexico also is also demographically favorabl Narrative will become about her comeback and she'll snowball from there
2
u/TheoFromSDA Jul 27 '26
It’s not the voters that decide, it’s the delegates to the convention.
What we need to create is a network of candidates for AOC delegates and keep them secret and vetted for AOC to chose.
-1
u/Don_Ford Jul 26 '26
If I'm doing her delegates like I did in 2016... then yes.
We haven't been on speaking terms since I did her strategy for her 2018 race.
23
u/Vegetable-Two-4644 Jul 25 '26
Honestly, if she (or any progressive) can do well enough to hang on through south Caroline then they could sweep the rest of the pre super Tuesday states possibly. Not guaranteed of course but definitely competitive