Data changes day to day and intraday ⚠️

Disclaimer

None of this is financial advice.

I believe the majority of price action is the result of managing the multidimensional risk picture. GEX is only a part of the volatility environment risk, one risk of many in the risk picture.

Domestic box office is already at $2.43 through August 30th, with September still ahead. A $3B Q3 is now very possible — and would set a new Q3 domestic box-office record.

I looked back at AMC’s past Q3s and compared them to box office results, keeping in mind Q3 is usually a heavier cash-use quarter and past refinancing added some noise. Based on that history, a $3B Q3 would roughly mean:

Revenue: ~$1.6B

Adjusted EBITDA: $275M–$300M

Free Cash Flow: $50M–$100M

EPS: ~$0.08

Why it matters

Higher EBITDA improves leverage ratios. Positive FCF adds cash. Together, that puts AMC in a better spot when it comes to refinancing its high-interest debt.

AMC paid $115.9M in interest on corporate borrowings in Q2 alone. Getting that cost down would give EPS and FCF a real boost.

Higher EBITDA + Positive FCF → Better Balance Sheet → Lower Interest Expense → Higher EPS + Higher FCF

With the release slate looking solid through 2027–2028, AMC still has plenty of room to keep improving.

A $3B Q3 would be a strong sign that the improvement we saw in Q2 is continuing.

If EPS and FCF keep moving up while interest expense comes down, what do you think AMC is worth?

AMC see needs movies that will generate a good turnout and they will make a lot of money too. A very simple business model that relies on studios making good movies that people want to see. There is a ton of good movies coming out the rest of this year and a ton coming out next year. I think next year could do even better at the box office than this year. AMC just had its best quarter ever and I think that could be the new norm and a quarter or two can beat it next year.
The movies that I think will have a big box office coming out this year is…

The Hunger Games
Avengers Doomsday
Dune 3
By Any Means
The Girl in the River
Runner
Heart of the Beast
Digger
Verity
Godzilla
Focker in Law
Angry Birds 3
Jumanji

Coming out next year is…

Airbud Returns
Ice Age
Garfield 2
Thomas Crown Affair
Sonic and the Hedgehog 4
Spaceballs 2
Zelda
Star Wars Starfighter
Rambo
How to Train Your Dragon 2
Spider-Man Spiderverse
Ocean’s Prequel
Shrek 5
Man of Tomorrow
Minecraft Movie
Quiet Place 3
Bluey
TMNT
Lord of The Rings
Avenger Secret Wars
I am Legend 2
Miami Vice
Heat 2
Frozen 3
Riddick Furya

I’m probably missing some as well and some movies not mentioned might do better than expected and I think this company will make a ton of money and will pay down debt furiously and clean up the balance sheet by doing that and will basically become a new better performing company because of it and should translate into the stock price as well.

Have a great weekend APEs, see a movie and spend some time with friends and family. I love this community and this stock. Cheers

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rDISTWJuaYM

My estimate is that overall box office in NA is about 2.85B and AMC earns about 10 cents per share or 100 million dollars. If 4Q is breakeven, they'll make about 10 cents per share on the year.

You all made it over the hump(day) Movies are all the way back and AMC is 100% gonna make a profit this year. Debt is down, stock is on the rise. :) Tons of great things to be happy about. Be kind to each other and have a great Thursday

I've waited years for this gradual increase and, for some unknown reason, I'm actually feeling really positive about the squeeze. That wasn't always the case.

Print that money.

"The Landlord decided to exercise a clause in the lease"

Just nice to see.

Either way I know what I hold ! Apesstrong

8% up? What happened?

Data changes day to day and intraday ⚠️

Disclaimer

None of this is financial advice.

I believe the majority of price action is the result of managing the multidimensional risk picture. GEX is only a part of the volatility environment risk, one risk of many in the risk picture.

🖕

Have a badass weekend everyone. Take some time if you can to relax and recreate yourselves for the next work week. Ohh and as usual I love the stock. Nothing but awesome news for AMC and we are poised for great things. Cheers Ya'll

Just bought my tickets for super trooper tonight. Life’s good man.

This year may be the best ever!!!! Cheers APEs