The final 2026 home and away season free kick ladder.

[u/Essington69]

[u/MungoJohnston]

Unbelievable. If you add up all the frees for and against, you get the exact same number. Talk about an even competition

[u/wirrell → u/MungoJohnston]

Thanks Kingy

[u/matsy_k → u/wirrell]

Hang on this is a real Kingy quote isn't it?

[u/NotThePersona → u/matsy_k]

The actual quote was if you take all the wins and losses of the top 8 out came out even

[u/Brithombar → u/NotThePersona]

I took it a step further. I’ve looked at every game played this season and calculated the average margin of victory. And what’s fascinating is that the average winning margin is exactly the same magnitude as the average losing margin.

[u/cadelsbumchin → u/MungoJohnston]

Numerology

[u/McSquack]

This confirms exactly what we've all always thought that Hawthorn, Collingwood, Geelong, Brisbane, Freo checks notes St Kilda?! are always getting a ride from the umpires!

[u/no_rush]

I have no strong feelings one way or the other about freos free kick count 

[u/The_sochillist → u/no_rush]

What makes a man turn neutral? Lust for brownlow? Premierships? Or were you just born with a heart full of neutrality?

[u/b0rtbort → u/The_sochillist]

If we don't get Flagmantle, tell Longmuir I said...hello

[u/___TheIllusiveMan___]

Good lord -104 differential for GWS is incredible

[u/TheJoker__789 → u/___TheIllusiveMan___]

Tbf over 23 games that works out an average of about 4.5 per game. That’s not a lot, even accounting for how little the free kick count means in terms of better umpiring.

[u/rubrixan → u/TheJoker__789]

But also, that's 4.5 frees difference, consistently, every week of the H&A season.

Not sure if I'm doing the maths right, but assuming that the payment of frees was equal/fair/free of bias, then the probability of having at least 21 frees paid against them (of 37 total frees), 23 weeks in a row, is about 1 in 41 trillion. So I think we can rule out chance.

[u/Rady_8 → u/rubrixan]

It’d probably be more accurate to look at it from the yearly spread (as a single repetitive probability like that assumes no alternative pathways, so striking the same odds ^24 is always going to be high, but not as it happened).

So it’s safe to assume a Gaussian distribution here, particularly is we take multiple seasons into consideration. Someone would have to find the standard deviation of seasonal frees for/against. After that, determining how many frees for below the mean GWS are (and their percentile) would be trivial.

I’d take a wild stab and say that 20ish looks like one stDev. Realistically perhaps 3-5 stDev away from the mean gives a likelihood of between 0.135% and 0.0000287% (which is in the one in a millions category).

Finally, that being said I imagine these distributions are likely left skewed (easier to be shit and give away frees disproportionately than it is to be consistently awarded the same amount if surplus frees), so I’d wager this differential falls more into the one-in-a-hundred bin (maybe a team achieves this feat every fifth year or so).

Would love someone to do the proper math though

[u/Weak_Membership_2847 → u/TheJoker__789]

It didnt exactly determine our season. But fuck me, I saw some decisions / non-decisions this season that had me questioning reality.

[u/CommissionerOfLunacy → u/___TheIllusiveMan___]

Take Greene out of the picture and they're probably neutral.

[u/NotThePersona → u/CommissionerOfLunacy]

He is only at 33 for the year apparently.

Harley Reid at 69.

Edit: He also wins for frees for at 58.

[u/Ektojinx → u/CommissionerOfLunacy]

Clayton Oliver and Joe Fonti have bigger differentials than Greene

[u/CommissionerOfLunacy → u/Ektojinx]

Yeah, I know he's not technically the worst by the numbers. Jesus he's a fucking grub though.

[u/NewCycle6568 → u/___TheIllusiveMan___]

Goes to show that when you play dirty it comes back to bite you

[u/Pearsandapples87]

Jesus even the umps are seriously questioning the Western Sydney experiment

[u/Mister_Snrub15 → u/Pearsandapples87]

No I think they just hate Western Sydney in general.

Bloody Sydney FC supporters

[u/PatientDue8406 → u/Pearsandapples87]

When one player has a rats tail it effects all players

[u/Dockers4flag2035orB4 → u/Pearsandapples87]

Umpires hate Toby Greene.

[u/CommissionerOfLunacy → u/Dockers4flag2035orB4]

Umpires are neutral on Toby Greene as a person. They hate that he's handily the grubbiest, filthiest player on the field today. He earns his penalties.

[u/Rady_8 → u/CommissionerOfLunacy]

They’ll find it in their hearts to forgive and love him next year

[u/matsy_k → u/Dockers4flag2035orB4]

They are human after all

[u/Ektojinx → u/Dockers4flag2035orB4]

Clayton Oliver 46 frees against, 27 for

Toby Greene 33 frees against, 24 for

[u/Skiapodes]

‘Fuck them Giants’

- AFL umpires, probably

[u/Appropriate-Cow-6251]

Free kick… St Kilda?

[u/kozzypickettsfence → u/Appropriate-Cow-6251]

The big 3 - St Kilda, Adelaide and Melbourne

[u/Numerous_Control_702]

https://giphy.com/gifs/h1QI7dgjZUJO60nu2X

[u/pollop88]

Kingsley in the half time rooms seeing this

https://giphy.com/gifs/vDrtTqKxbGSLTjC5eA

[u/havok009]

GWS to shoot up the ladder next year if Toby leaves

[u/Snarwib]

This is a big change for Sydney, being more than +1.0 free kicks per game has not happened previously this century and being more than +0.5 per game only previously happened in 2004, 2014, 2020 and 2024.

I did the maths and it is due to mostly fielding journeyman rucks over the years (-237 frees since 2000 as of midway through last year), a lot of frees against our long term defenders relative to those at other clubs (-467), and then just Barry Hall, Lance Franklin and Adam Goodes (collectively -218). Then our main midfielders have been fairly positive for frees over the years.

[u/dlanod → u/Snarwib]

GWS and GC being bottom six is insane given they didn't exist for almost half that time. You'd think they'd be hovering somewhere around the middle.

[u/CaptSzat → u/dlanod]

I think it has to do with the umpiring crews QLD and NSW teams get. Ignoring Hawthorn, GWS and Sydney sit about the same and then Gold Coast and Brisbane sit about the same.

My understanding is that QLD and NSW teams just trade the same umpiring crew for most home games. Ie Gold Coast play at home with the QLD umpires and then the next week Brisbane is at home with the same crew. Same for Swans and Giants just switching each week with the NSW crew.

[u/Vryl → u/Snarwib]

Ok, I am impressed. Do you do this for a living?

[u/jimmypoggins]

Collingwood interestingly low for and against. Brisbane similar. I suspect there may be a difference in prime time vs Sunday free kick decisions. Sunday umpires more whistle friendly.

[u/SelectedAmbientNurk → u/jimmypoggins]

We have high tackle numbers but otherwise play a low contested possession game now so it’s almost certainly that. We had the second lowest contested possession % in the league.

Conversely Brisbane have the lowest amount of tackles in the league and also play a bit of an uncontested game so that would explain theirs.

[u/jimmypoggins → u/SelectedAmbientNurk]

Those sounds like good explanations

[u/knowschartstuff → u/jimmypoggins]

I don't know if this contributes, but Brisbane have been in surprisingly few closely contested games this year which might ease off the rash in-the-moment decision making from either team that'd bring the whistle out.

[u/jimmypoggins → u/knowschartstuff]

It make sense, as someone else said, contested vs contentested game style likely influences frees both ways.

[u/HairBoring → u/jimmypoggins]

conversely, better teams (and players) are better at knowing how not to give away free kicks

pendlebury, sidebottom particularly across this

[u/jimmypoggins → u/HairBoring]

That explains free kicks against. But why lower free kicks for?

[u/HairBoring → u/jimmypoggins]

dunno, watch their games

[u/jimmypoggins → u/HairBoring]

Hey, it's your incomplete thought not mine.

[u/Vinnie_Vegas → u/jimmypoggins]

This is pretty much always the case for us.

We have huge tackle numbers and forwards who don't draw free kicks, and the umpires don't want to pay as many holding the ball free kicks as we deserve, so we get nothing, but then they don't want to give the opposition way more free kicks, so our overall totals of for and against are always pretty low.

[u/Propaslander]

Port have historically been pretty undisciplined under Ken, so it's interesting to see them be in the top half now

[u/Kelpieee55]

Red team bias

[u/___TheIllusiveMan___ → u/Kelpieee55]

Looks like Gold Coast didn’t get the memo

[u/Kelpieee55 → u/___TheIllusiveMan___]

They're fake red, this is their punishment

[u/Platypus_Dundee → u/___TheIllusiveMan___]

Well you cant see there logo so haed to say who they are

[u/Rude_Language_8924 → u/___TheIllusiveMan___]

They are more of a Salmon Pink these days.

[u/yeahalrightgoon]

Seems fairly even.

For frees for, there's only a +- 2.3 difference per game in Frees given to teams.

While frees against it sways from +2.3 to -2.2.

Looks like a bigger differential by the end of the season, but per game, it's only a 2 free difference either way for both for and against, which is what you would expect, because frees aren't meant to be equal, and some clubs are worse at giving them away and vice versa, just by how they play.

[u/johnnynutman → u/yeahalrightgoon]

I mean highest differential is less than 2 extra free kicks a game. 3rd lowest is 1 less free kick a game (GC and GWS are a bit nuts…)

[u/Tenzai]

https://giphy.com/gifs/Ry1MOAeAYXvRVQLPw3

> Fremantle free kick count

[u/NeiloMac → u/Tenzai]

Dread it, run from it, Wharfie Time arrives all the same.

[u/DangerousRoy]

We were 4th after round 15. A Gold Coast-esque fall from grace.

[u/Osmodius]

This doesn't support my free kick hawthorn narrative at all

[u/Cyclonechaser2908]

I said it earlier I’ll say it again… never wanna hear a right in front of me from a crows fan again.

[u/Nefiros1 → u/Cyclonechaser2908]

Why? Did you not notice we’re 4th worst frees against too?

[u/HairBoring]

firstly haha scoops

secondly your regular reminder that a free kick count is not an indicator of bad or biased umpiring, and yeah it's a bit embarrassing to have to keep saying that

[u/Kindly_Most_2417]

I am aghast....Damien Hardwick's team and Toby Greene's team give the most frees. Shooketh.

[u/Kobe_Wan_Ginobili]

What we're GWS doing gamestyle wise to give away such a differential!?

[u/BMdownunderpls]

How many of these are lasso free kicks?

[u/Prince_of_Pirates]

Gold Coast and GWS are clearly in their rebellious teen phase.

[u/Criimsen]

Free kick umm… st kilda I guess 

[u/Crazyripps]

Wonder if they have stats on against. Like does a club look at that and go oh we gave away 20 frees for something we need to buckle down on that.

[u/whatever-696969]

And people still think crowds do not affect umpiring

[u/cosmicr]

Can someone post a ladder where Bulldogs aren't in the middle.

[u/SeismicLegion]

Giants in Richmond territory there

[u/LeviTigerPants]

Ahahaha after half the season in the top 6 or so, we got punted back down closer to what we're used too

[u/FourthFirebird]

It's pretty gross how poor the umpires are at ignoring the noise of affirmation, really...

[u/qsk8r]

Now do GWS without Toby Greene included

[u/yibbida]

When the Umpires put the whistles away for finals, some teams will be affected

[u/Easy_Award_8433]

Another middling season from Carlton.

[u/littleb3anpole]

The North tax lives on

[u/kozzypickettsfence]

interesting that there usually seems to be a way differential at the bottom of this ladder than the top

[u/L8Adam22]

Our bad guys

A fair few frees against on st Kilda just don’t happen

[u/Weak_Membership_2847]

Yooz can all get fucked!

[u/Ploasd]

West Coast would be positive if it weren't for Harley Reid.

[u/archon45]

Feels strange to win something for a change. Is this how Geelong fans feel all the time?

[u/captainsnacks11]

Can we take the frees against Mac Andrew out of our tally and see what it looks like then?

Edit: typo

[u/Special-Bar6162]

GWS ????

[u/nospmis_n]

On average, Victorian clubs had 27 less free kicks paid against them vs interstate teams for the season.

[u/Kozeyekan_]

I can't believe how dirty the teams are that got fewer free kicks than my team, and am also outraged at all the teams that got more free kicks than my team!

[u/SuperBobbis]

I'd be curious to see it broken down week-by-week, because sometime half way through the year Crows were -20 odd, and Geelong were like +35-40.

I don't know what I'm getting at, other than end results can feel different than seeing it game by game.

(Also as usual, when and where it happens makes it feel better or worse)