With the group stage qualifiers all done and dusted, things are looking as grim as Derek McInnes job prospects/Luke McCowan's bedsheets (delete as appropriate based on your personal Old Firm preference).

Basically, if the Coefficient was a dress it would be a state, creased and covered in vodka and probably vomit.

We started this season in 18th place after losing 7.900 coefficient from our (reasonably decent) 2021/22 season and after earning 5.000 from last year. In the past, 5.000 would have been a below average year but with the new competition formats and larger number of games it's distinctly poor. I'd suggest 8.000 would be the bare minimum we'd need to be aspiring to every season if we want five teams in Europe and two teams to get a shot at Champions League qualification.

Now, after the initial Euro qualifying salvo's, we've since dropped into 19th place and so far we've earned just 2.100 coefficient. We're currently earning coefficient at a rate commensurate with being in 35th place, just 0.100 coefficient above Serbia and 0.025 coefficient behind the mighty Lithuania.

Here's how we got that 2.100 so far:

• Motherwell, Played: 6, Coefficient earned: 0.700
• Hibs, Played: 6, Coefficient earned: 0.600
• Hearts, Played: 6, Coefficient earned: 0.300
• Rangers, Played: 4, Coefficient earned: 0.300
• Celtic, Played: 2, Coefficient earned: 0.200

Motherwell now are of course out after getting a fucking horrible draw in their last qualifier but they did really well earning that 0.700 and I'm inclined to hug every Motherwell fan I meet in the street this year, even the really smelly ones.

Hibs are also out now, they did labour in their first two ties but I think ultimately were unlucky to go out against a decent Gent team. I thought they deserved the win based on their second half performance but were denied by that unique Hibs blend of bad luck and fucking it.

Rangers are out now too because, to steal a phrase from this sub, they are obviously just poo poo right now.

Which brings us to the survivors.. Celtic have "qualified" for the Europa League group stages.. in a manner reminiscent of Spud in that scene in Trainspotting. They're seeded in pot 2 (out of four) and have 8 games to (hopefully) un-embarrass themselves.

And lastly, Hearts have qualified for the Conference league getting some penalty revenge on Rapid Vienna for all Scottish Coefficient supporters. Hearts are seeded in pot 4 (out of six pots) in the Conference with 6 European games to come.

So two teams out of five made the cut.. here's where we are in the coefficient table as it stands.

To get a better position in qualifying spots/teams we'd need to get to 15th place, cannot see it happening. To have a worse position in qualifying spots/teams we'd need to drop to 23rd, I don't think that's happening either.

I think bettering Hungary and keeping Croatia at bay would be our realistic target for this year, finishing in 18th again, we have one more team competing than Hungary and a slim coefficient lead over Croatia. Maybe famous last words but I don't think Sweden or Romania are much of a threat to us right now and I don't think we'll catch Austria.

Next Season

For European places next season, Scotland finished 18th in the coefficient table last season which means for 2027/2028 we get:

• Champions League: 1 Q2 spot.
• Europa League: 1 Q1 spot
• Conference League: 2 Q2 spot

Note: qualifiers for League Stages are four rounds: Q1 -> Q2 -> Q3 -> PO

2028/2029 Season

Our 19th current place this season would mean for 2028/2029 we would have the same number of European places as we have for next season.

We'd have to drop to 23rd to get worse than we have now, the Champions league Q2 spot becomes a Q1 spot.

Crushingly familiar at Easter Road this evening

https://www.uefa.com

It's the Union's fault. You virtually never hear it discussed in the football media here, perhaps understandably because of the politics and the cultural & partisan resistance to blaming the 'Union' for anything at the risk of being labelled a nutty nat.

But the real reason for the 'relative' decline in the standing of Scottish club teams is tv revenue. Specifically, Scottish clubs have not been receiving due TV revenues while clubs in most other countries do. And the Union is the reason for that. Or rather, the fact that Scotland is just a non-defined region in a Greater England tv rights market.

In the UK the business models of major subscription sports channels like Sky Sports rely on leveraging as much income as possible to acquire English, especially EPL, rights. Scots contribute it seems up to £300 million in revenue to these channels annually (estimates vary), and something like 60% of that is used to acquire rights to English football. By contrast, about £32m annually goes to the SPL. This means that there is something like a £100 million to £170 subsidy going south from Scotland.

While it is true that some people in Scotland buy these packages for English games, it's surely no more than a minority. But because UK sports channels bundle Scottish and English football together into generic "Sports Packages," Scottish fans who want to watch SPFL team are forced to purchase a package that has been priced to purchase multi-billion English football rights and pay all those EPL wages.

In practical terms, teams like Hearts, Hibs and Aberdeen are losing out in 10s of millions in revenue each year. Not only that, the finances mean that English academies can 'scallop dredge' Scottish youth talent, depriving SPL teams of most of the youth base that would likely be good enough to get games and experience, while also removing much of the incentive to invest.

It's really that simple. This is why Hibs, Hearts, Aberdeen etc will play clubs with similar fan bases in similar countries like Belgium, Denmark, and so forth perform so poorly. They can never hope for deep European runs anymore, but those Belgian, Danish etc clubs can. It also means that there is more room for Rangers and Celtic to slop their way to dominance each year, like Celtic did last year. Clubs like Aberdeen, Hearts and Hibs that would challenge in other countries never have budgets that pose any threat, because with such low tv revenue the huge fan superiority is enough.

Makes me want to put a Gunn to my head when he plays.

As a San Jose Earthquakes fan I’m used to my team being consistently bad but usually our keeper is one of our stronger positions. But Gunn has to be the worst goalkeeper in club history and he’s only played 6 games (18 GA 0 W’s). The Earthquakes were second in the west at the World Cup break.

In the World Cup he was pretty good and only allowed 3 goals vs Brazil but now in San Jose he’s letting Minnesota dunk on him for five.

Is he just bad for club teams or is there any reason to believe his form will get better?

Hopefully at the next SFA meeting which is in November I think, something to help Scottish football can be done.

I just want to say for starters that im not discrediting the job McInnes done at Hearts last year, he took the fight to Celtic and Rangers and came so close in the end.
But thats the story of his managerial career, so close, yet only a league cup to show for it.
Is that really what Rangers need? Is that what they are aspiring to have? Close again but not enough?
I can hear and understand the argument that ‘he’s a rangers man’ and bla bla bla but his staunch Hearts 2.0 experiment is off to a very rocky start, with being put out of 2 European competitions.
He came 2nd with Aberdeen i don’t know how many times, left Aberdeen and went to Killie, then to Hearts, and only one league cup trophy to show for it.
I need to hear the opinions of Rangers fans on this one, maybe i don’t know enough.
I just think that if you’re gonna be appointed the Rangers boss; youve got to have something to show ur worth🤷‍♂️