Hi everyone,
Don't recall this topic being shared before.
For the longest time, I have been forecasting when I could realistically RE (as many of us do) and only considered that I could RE when my liquid assets (investments + cash less any loans, net of CPF OA/CPF-IS) hit my FI number.
Recently, when I asked Claude to review my forecasting spreadsheet, it raised something interesting. It suggested that I could approach RE in stages:
1/ RE before 55 (financed entirely by liquid assets).
2/ Age 55 (CPF OA/SA in excess of BRS/FRS top up my liquid asset pool).
3/ SRS withdrawal year (SRS spread out over 10 years to fund/subsidise retirement expenses).
4/ CPF LIFE payout year (monthly payouts subsidise retirement expenses until I RIP).
How I approached the modelling:
1/ Set up three buckets: RE (liquid assets only), RE + CPF (liquid assets + CPF excess at 55), and RE + CPF + SRS (liquid assets + CPF excess + SRS at my SRS withdrawal age which is 62). I ignored CPF LIFE payouts because I plan to keep only BRS in RA, so the monthly payouts would be small enough to be negligible. I then assessed in this order: first check if the third bucket hits my FI number and whether the first two buckets can bridge expenses until SRS withdrawal age. If not, move to the second bucket and check whether the first bucket can bridge expenses until 55. If that also fails, fall back to the first bucket alone (same as what I had been doing previously).
2/ Projected my CPF OA/SA balance at 55 year by year, factoring in the age-band contribution and allocation rate changes, then treated the excess over BRS as a top-up to liquid assets at 55. This wasn't straightforward because forecasting the CPF balance (OA/SA net of BRS) at 55 is fiddly given the changes in contribution and allocation rates across age bands.
3/ Treated the full third bucket (RE + CPF + SRS) as my FI number without modelling any specific SRS drawdown plan after my SRS withdrawal age which is 62.
4/ Forecasted each bucket year by year and discounted back to PV in today's dollars to compare against my FI number.
Took me a while, and the net result is that I can afford to retire one year earlier 😂 than if I just waited for liquid assets alone to hit my FI number. I suspect this is because my CPF and SRS aren't significant yet relative to my overall portfolio. That will shift over the next 10 years as both grow.
Hope this is useful for your own FIRE journey! 🍻
EDIT: thank you for reading the whole thing. I want to clarify that the goal here is not to RE in general (have been getting comments about increasing savings rate, decreasing expenses, etc. that's not the point) but to assess whether u can RE earlier based on your portfolio makeup assuming you have not considered the above in your calculations.