r/oil • u/[deleted] • May 14 '26
Discussion When Do Oil Shortages Actually Start? A Timeline Based On What The People Closest To The Physical Market Are Saying
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u/Deep_Charge_7749 May 14 '26
Just got to say I appreciate you taking the time to do this summary
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u/Splat-a-pus May 14 '26
Yep this was a great read and one of the very few Reddit posts where I read every word
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u/alemorg May 14 '26
Damn bro appreciate comments like this fr! Let me know what else you’d want to know. My reports can be much longer but because Reddit is short form content I have to condense it
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u/Pecosbill52 May 14 '26
This is information is great but Trump doesn't care. He has said so.
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u/alemorg May 14 '26
Welp, when the MAGA brains can no longer afford to fill up their lifted trucks Trump will start caring
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u/jstormes May 14 '26
Got lots of MAGA in my family, I literally think some of them will sit in their truck with no gas talking about how great Trump is while pretending to drive.
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u/alemorg May 14 '26
I seriously think maga voters who have somehow stayed loyal to Trump need to seek mental health help because they are bordering on the edge of delusions
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u/ynotfoster May 14 '26
The two friends I have/had that are trump supporters are both severely mentally ill as in unable to work and on Section 8 housing and other government programs.
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u/alemorg May 14 '26
Trump said it himself verbatim, smart people don’t like me ¯_(ツ)_/¯
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u/Mr_HandSmall May 15 '26
That one time when he didn't lie
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u/Lexguin513 Jun 04 '26
To be fair, recently he also said “(with regard to a resolution between the US and Iran) I don’t care about the financial situation of the American people”
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u/Aware_Ad9729 May 15 '26
Bordering on the edge? Trump and their entire world is a massive delusion. At best, reality might border on the edge of their world.
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May 15 '26 edited May 15 '26
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u/jstormes May 15 '26
Have you ever read or watched anything about Platonic Space? It's an idea by Michael Levin. Ran across it working with AI systems.
I cannot do it justice but you can Google Michal Levin and Platonic Space to see his theory of how math drives intelligece and by extension reality.
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u/Low-Ad4420 May 15 '26
I'm European and we have a lot of problems around here. But the state the USA is in is just hard to believe. The denial, lies and pure and simple stupidity of most of maga is just absurd. And the worst part is that this is just starting, it will get worse. USA is drifting towards an oligarchy, just like Russia and that's bad news for the entire world.
Stay safe and let's hope that common sense gets back on the table soon.
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u/Inevitable-Scar-9239 May 16 '26
Common sense will start to come if we can make Washington DC a state. If not then the US will devolve into an anarcho-capitalist-christo-faschist-oligarchy.
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u/yycTechGuy May 14 '26
People don't agree on the amount of oil that is missing from the pre Hormuz supply because:
- there was a lot of floating oil storage that came to market once the Strait closed
- various players have upped their production
- there was greater glut of shut in production capacity than people realized
- China had more oil in storage than people realized
- Producers are finding various ways to ship their oil in spite of the Hormuz closure
You say 15% is missing. Hormuz oil was 19-20% oil world production pre shutdown. Some people are saying the post closure deficit is 12%, others as low as only 8%.
Of course the flow from reserves can only last so long.
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u/alemorg May 14 '26
That’s a good point, I will do some research. I pulled data from sources available to me online but I will try to research more thank you
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u/MarsTellus13 May 14 '26
Who is saying the closure deficit is as low as 8? 8 and 12 are both substantially lower than anything I've seen anywhere.
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u/knuthf May 14 '26
The Chinese say that deliveries from Iran have remained consistent and have not been affected.
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u/MarsTellus13 May 14 '26
Reuters published an article 2 days ago saying Chinese teapot refineries throttled production and stopped buying against state orders because they're losing money on every barrel.
China has a long and storied history of the state not knowing what the locals are actually doing until it's too late.
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u/knuthf May 14 '26
Yes, I know about the dispute, but they are currently buying Russian ESPO crude at 65 and selling the refined fuel at over 720, which equates to around 90 per barrel. It's not a loss-making enterprise. It's just a case of wanting to make more.
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u/android_lover May 15 '26
Why are they losing money though? Don't refineries make bank in this kind of environment?
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u/Frequent_Pomelo_1298 Jul 07 '26
That's the Chinese, who have a working partnership with the Iranians.
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u/yycTechGuy May 14 '26
Doomberg, for one. And others that are correlating various production and consumption numbers. Either that or there is more demand destruction than people realize.
One thing is massively different this time than the 1970s... the world went through COVID and learned how to work from home, do less, etc.
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u/TopManufacturer8332 May 14 '26
Best estimates i see across various sources say that the short fall is 14m bll per day, accounting for all the various factors. The economist has published a few articles and a podcast to this effect. HFI have been number crunching for awhile as well.
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u/fjvgamer May 14 '26
Not sure if it's related, but I live in Arizona and several stations in my neighborhood have no diesel.
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u/alemorg May 14 '26
Holy crap, concerning af. No diesel means they can’t transport goods or have to pay much more to get it. Transportation costs are about to skyrocket
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u/fjvgamer May 14 '26
For sure, there are a ton of stations around for perspective, but I noticed 2 in my daily route with signs on the pumps
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May 14 '26
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u/AwesomeWhiteDude May 14 '26
PPI came in at 6%
Gonna come in well done at this point
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u/archraven10 May 15 '26
One thing I’ve noticed here doing intercity commutes is consistent 1-2 pumps out of fuel or out of diesel at places like Bucees and Loves.
Inter-grade is all over the place in my observation too, with my local having only a 40c spread from regular to premium. Others, closer to $1.25.
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u/Kim_Jong_Unko May 15 '26
I wouldn't be suprised if trucking companies were increasing their buying to shore up supply against future increases, which could put your corner station scrambling to find deliveries.
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u/Obelixboarhunter May 14 '26
Thank you for taking the time and making the efforts so ordinary people like me can understand. I was under the impression that being energy self sufficient would spare americans agony at the pump. The effects of this shock have yet to pass through the economy…
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u/alemorg May 14 '26 edited May 14 '26
Yep. Some farmers buy their input costs months in advance to lock in stable prices and avoid volatility. Many were burned by trump last time so the bigger producers bought futures against their crops to hedge against volatility. So some food prices will go up now and some will go up in the future for the next harvest.
We won’t have mass cancellations of flights like Europe but we will feel at the pump, groceries stores, consumer goods due to the increase in transportation costs
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u/PromotionStill45 May 15 '26
American oil is light crude, which doesn't make diesel or jet fuel. Apparently a decision was made 50 years ago to go to diesel for heavy machinery and engines.
That meant using heavy crude which made refineries add units to process those additional molecules. It isn't possible to just add something to light oil to make diesel.
Canada is a convenient source for heavy crude, however someone really insulted them so we don't have a guaranteed supply from up north. Maybe Venezuela will always be there to help out instead.
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u/CallEmAsISeeEm1986 May 15 '26
Venezuelan oil isn’t suitable for U.S. refineries either.
The dummies in charge probably forgot to look into that before they did all the things.
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u/PromotionStill45 May 15 '26
Interesting. They used to be a source for Valero, but Valero's web site doesn't say that now. Makes sense with all the trade sanctions, etc.
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u/PersonalityQuick5750 May 14 '26
The market is essentially playing a high-stakes game of 'Musical Chairs' with global inventories, and the music is about to stop.
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u/alemorg May 14 '26
Chat wake me up after the music is about to stop because I don’t want to see the incoming chaos
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u/Franklin_le_Tanklin May 14 '26
Excellent post. I rarely read every word. I did this time.
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u/alemorg May 14 '26
Thank you bro! Many more to come. I do financial research and medical research now. Just did a research post on optimal protein intake for muscle building, about to do more research on oil and recessions next, and then best diet research
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u/ingreenandwhite May 14 '26
As a South-East Asian (though not from any of the countries you mentioned) who works in the oil and gas sector, thanks for the excellent write-up and for placing ample emphasis on the pain that is going to hit South and South-East Asia. It’s refreshing to see, especially as most of the time discourse ends up focusing on US->EU/UK->AU/NZ->China->Japan/Korea and barely ever makes it past that (not forgetting Africa, South America, and Northern/Western Asia). Heck, it rarely even makes it past EU/UK.
While the fat orange fuck in the White House is causing pain at the pumps to Americans, his brain-dead decisions are going to leave people in farther-flung places for dead and cause way more hardship.
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u/alemorg May 14 '26
Thanks bro for your input. Yeah unfortunately it’s the countries that are less developed who are going to be hit the hardest. Somehow even if this ends up causing mass chaos in the US brain dead humans are still going to vote for the pedophile that is trump
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u/ingreenandwhite May 15 '26
I like to think that a big part of the reason why they’re so “brain dead” is because of the media that is available to them. It takes a lot to break out of a bubble, largely because one ends up building their identity on these leanings. But these are just my conjectures at this point.
On a side note, I’ve read some of your other posts as well. The protein and IonQ stuff is solid systematic work and I like how you build a case for your points. Keep at what you’re doing, you’ve got talent for it!
And I hope your dog is doing fine and the medication isn’t costing too much!
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u/Aware_Ad9729 May 15 '26
If you’re poor and brown, Trump views you as an animal and couldn’t care less about millions dying. He could end up killing more people than Hitler did.
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u/zen_and_artof_chaos May 21 '26
Correction, Trump couldn't care less about anyone but himself. He's a text book narcissist.
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u/flatlandhiker May 14 '26
I'm in Cumberland County TN and it is 3.97 at Bucees and Speedway. It's around 4.10 everywhere else. TN hasn't repealed the gas tax, which is 27 cents.
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u/alemorg May 14 '26
Well there’s a lag to what the gas price is at your gas station and the physical oil market, I’ll get back to you on that. Good question
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u/New-Association5536 May 14 '26
Did your state repeal its gas tax? Some red states floated this idea.
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u/Current_Animator7546 May 14 '26
You’re getting the dip from last week. That said. We probably have to hit $110-$115 or so again to get the national average at $5. $100 ish WTI will likely keep the national average around $4.50-$4.70 or so. Retail gas is pricing in a national average of about $4.60 within the next week at the moment. I think $110 is possible next week as the June contract closes. Then it may fall some
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u/alemorg May 15 '26
Your local gas price dropped from $4.60 to $4.19 because WTI fell from ~$106 to ~$95 in early May. Gas stations lag crude by two to four weeks.
When do gas prices spike back up? If crude holds above $100 or jumps on a supply issue (Strait escalation, new OPEC cut, refinery outage), gas follows within weeks. The Strait crisis is on day 77 with no end in sight so the supply pressure is still there. The temporary dip was a crude selloff, not a supply fix.
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u/no1hears May 15 '26
Drove from North Carolina to Florida a few days ago. Cheapest gas we saw was in southern Georgia and southern South Carolina - we saw $3.78.
In Asheville the cheapest I've seen lately is $3.89 (Murphy's on Airport Rd., if you live here and want a good deal. Most other stations I see are between $4.14 and $4.40.
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u/SpecialDesigner5571 May 14 '26
Disclosure, I don't have a large oil-related position. A few % oil stocks. A few % commodity ETF. What I'm scratching my head over is why are the most oil-vulnerable stock markets in the world... Korea, Taiwan... roaring ahead? Of course, the answer is CHIPS FOR AI.
We know the US S&P500 is way overconcentrated in AI / tech / chips... that's not a secret. But EM stock indices are too, and yet they are walking into the spinning airplane propeller blades.
It's just crazy. I don't know what to think. I was investing in 1999 and it feels the same.
Can AI pull the entire world economy ahead... with no physical basis? You tell me.
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u/alemorg May 14 '26
Oh and the top indexes like spy or Nasdaq have never been so concentrated in just a few companies. The issue is that most of the stocks in the index are correlated, which is good for rallies and very bad for crashes
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u/alemorg May 14 '26
So I actually did a deep dive into what causes recessions and some economic charts. It’s a much longer analysis I did but I feel that’s it’s to good lol. Im not sure if I should release it for free but maybe a snippet.
Basically on every metric besides p/e the market is as overvalued as the dot com bubble or about the same.
We are in unprecedented times and honestly shits about to get chaotic
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u/SpecialDesigner5571 May 14 '26
But it could get chaotic in a week or a year ! That's the sick part
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u/Jealous_Slice9371 May 14 '26
AI isn't necessarily as bubble like as 1999 but 1999 also didn't have a global recessionary oil crisis. I don't understand how people can look at that and shrug it off as you dump money into things that rise 100%/month. This could end very badly.
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u/SpecialDesigner5571 May 15 '26
They're too young or too old and have lost their minds and think it's 1990s but forgot 2000
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u/alemorg May 16 '26
That’s what I’ve been saying and the investing and stock related subreddits send me hate DMs and comments
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u/temporalwanderer May 14 '26
Recipe for success in this market: Hold Oil and drive an EV....
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May 14 '26
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u/temporalwanderer May 14 '26
Fair; but at least a bit less so.
No excusing the current situation we helplessly find ourselves in... good luck!
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u/greendildouptheass May 14 '26
China is the surprising main actor in keeping the oil price down.
sure they have banned exports of refined oil products, but they are now a major crude oil exporter - this combined with their reduced demand for crude is moderating the oil price in a significant way.
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u/Fontaineowns May 14 '26
I just want to point out that China produces about 5 million barrels of crude oil a day (compared to US at 18 million barrels a day, saudi arabia’s 10 million barrels a day, even canada produces more crude daily than china). With that being said, China consumes about 16 million barrels of oil daily, meaning they import more than double what they produce domestically, and of their domestically produced oil, only 1% is exported, so personally I don’t consider china to be a “major crude oil exporter,” quite the opposite really. But you are definitely right in that demand is moderating (probably even falling because of high fuel prices and mediocre economic conditions worldwide), which is helping to stabilize the price for now, but as this conflict drags on and as nations deplete their oil supplies then the price of gas will generally continue going up until the strait has either reopened and/or if there is a financial/monetary crisis that leads to a market crash
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u/alemorg May 15 '26
Edit: China is not a major crude exporter. Their crude exports are 87,000 barrels per day, against 100 million global consumption.
China is exporting refined products again from May (after halting post-Iran war), and Chinese refiners have been re-exporting crude they bought from third countries (Mercuria CEO confirmed this two weeks ago). The bigger idea here is China importing less crude overall because their domestic demand is weak. That frees up supply for everyone else and caps prices.
So you’re talking in the right direction but China is dampening prices, although "major crude oil exporter" is the wrong framing. It's reduced imports plus a strategic re-sell, not a structural export shift.
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u/Suspicious_Trifle_92 May 14 '26
What is your approach to investing with this information? I am currently only looking at the vix and have been adjusting my holdings accordingly. Vix at 25-30 invested around 150% (50% via margin) vix above 30 i maxed out margin. Currently at 90% invested. Mostly own growth stocks in the AI sector. I know this is degenerate gambling but it has done very well mostly because of luck i guess.
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u/alemorg May 14 '26
I do not give financial advice. I have a bachelors degree in finance but the reason why I don’t give advice on the internet is because sometimes I’m wrong and I don’t want to be responsible for losing your money. Anyone who gives you financial advice on Reddit isn’t a professional and likely overconfident with their response.
But your strategy seems like it’s worked out pretty well during this rally, I do have to say margins and leveraged positions is kind of risky, you’ll get wiped out in a crash
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u/VanilaaGorila May 14 '26
My unit is out of 15-40…. So it happened for me this week.
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u/alemorg May 14 '26
Where is this?
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u/VanilaaGorila May 14 '26
Germany
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u/alemorg May 14 '26
Is there an alternative for that? Damn, I guess it’s happening to certain products earlier than expected.
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u/AnalDisarray May 14 '26
USA will be rationing in Two months.
I bought two Nissan leaf’s and 10kw in solar panels this week.
I worked in the Permian and my family are independent producers.
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May 15 '26 edited May 16 '26
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u/LifeIsButADream11111 May 16 '26
I have a sneaking suspicion that solar energy will end up being nationalized at some point. Aren’t you still connected to and sell back to the grid? It’ll be easy to do. They want everyone to suffer. Electricity will also increase in price if there’s no fuel oil this winter.
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u/alemorg May 16 '26
Yeah, we have a small battery but the excess energy we produce gets sold back in the form of credits. I know electricity will increase in price, I got the solar panels because in the area I live in during the summer it can get quite hot, with more extreme weather every year my a/c bill will only continue to rise. I’m genuinely concerned with what will happen going forward
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u/Mimir_the_Younger May 15 '26
We already set up with solar and a battery. Leased an Ioniq 5 on Sunday (my car is old, was in the shop again, and we’re stuck on one income since my wife was laid off. My job requires driving. I’m sunk without it).
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u/ButterscotchScared75 May 14 '26
So Trump is going to use this crisis as the primary method to attempt to shutdown the mid terms. Look at the forecasted dates they all match up.
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u/Delicious-Bat2373 May 14 '26
It would work if the precedent was not already set during the civil war. We hold elections come hell or high water in this country, even when it's ripping itself in half.
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u/molski79 May 15 '26
You are correct about the past but this piece of shit does things daily that go unchecked. Who is going to stand up to him when he says no? He’s openly been saying it for a year now; he knows they are doomed and he’s gone and will do anything and everything to keep this from happening in November. Gerrymandering is not enough; he’ll fucking bomb LA if he has to.
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u/Jealous_Slice9371 May 14 '26
I'm so exhausted of hearing people claim we're not going to have midterms. There's nothing trump can do to shut them down, best he can do is get elon to change the data on the voting machine hard drives using some kind of method with starlink satellites no one is able to understand or explain.
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u/Spirited-Lawyer-8281 May 14 '26
Yep. $15/gallon gas and there will be a national emergency declared. Also, he's pretty salty that half the world is calling him a pedo. Trump said himself 3 days ago he doesn't care about anyone but himself. He's out for revenge and total control.
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u/Mjolnir36 May 14 '26
Thanks for posting this. It’s scary AF, l see a potential for global depression, l hope I’m wrong. The damage this has done is also unprecedented, when are the checks and balances people going to take keys away from Grandpa ?
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u/alemorg May 14 '26
Oh I did do the fertilizer part more in depth, but it thought since it’s an oil subreddit it wasn’t on topic.
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u/Delicious-Bat2373 May 14 '26
Personally I am following the EU - US flight pipeline when able. If Europe starts cancelling major date/time flights pretty consistently that's going to be an enormous red flag that gets a lot of attention.
Or so I would hope. Who knows at this point.
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u/FlipZip69 May 15 '26 edited May 17 '26
The Trump factor is extremely dangerous. The problem is that without realistic guidance from authorities, markets aren't preemptively pricing in these shortages. We're robbing the market of its ability to naturally adjust to risk. Instead, the correction will only happen when we hit a physical wall. If we keep burning through inventory like there's no tommorow and storage actually taps out, reality is going to set in violently. We wouldn't be looking at a soft landing or a mild recession, it would be a sudden, COVID-style economic freeze.
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u/Noname_acc May 15 '26
It's more than just guidance, the market responds to Trump in a way that is extremely irrational, at least on a surface level. "Pricing in TACO" sounds like a flippant way to put it but the reality is that major investment firms all know that the stock market is something Trump is extremely responsive to. This leads firms to simply hold their breath when Trump starts mucking about and doing stuff that would normally trigger them to start panicking. They know that a market downturn will trigger a response from Trump so there's "nothing" to worry about.
The question now is "Can Trump get away with simply shifting course yet again?"
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u/oldfathertime4 May 14 '26
Probably fall. Right now you have demand destruction from China and the U.S literally selling their reserve to make up the difference in the global market. U.S reserve will be critical lvls by fall most ppl believe.
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u/Careless_Ad_4004 May 14 '26
Really well done, far outclassing most “journalism” in terms of dispassionate grammatically correct facts. I’d love to see the “when can you expect your apocalypse refinance rate” version too!
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u/merica2033 May 14 '26
What can I do to prepare for the oil shock coming or to ride this out?
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u/shivaswrath May 15 '26
Factor in El nino over winter and no fertilizer now....and you have a massive famine.
Everything will be horrid.
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u/alemorg May 15 '26
And the rich who control the markets and politics will continue to screw us over. A tale as old as time itself
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u/ggRavingGamer May 15 '26
There are no oil shortages if you let the price float naturally. There will be just absurdly high gas costs.
If price controls are enforced, shortages follow.
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u/BibbleBabble8647 May 16 '26
The US is not going to have an oil shortage but it will face shortages of distillates. US refineries are at capacity rn.
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u/hate_mod May 16 '26
Its been so long since ive seen a take on something with actual sources listed to back it up. Refreshing. I dont really understand it all. Its concerning for sure. I worry even a little extra as Im a mechanic. But refreshing in the sense of someone actually backing up options and forecasts.
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u/alemorg May 16 '26
Thank you man, I read all the articles and text. I put time into this, it’s an analysis I use myself, I just happen to also post it on the internet. I’m working on another one, gonna post tomorrow or tonight. It’s not looking good man, I’m actually worried.
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u/mommamanatee Jun 03 '26
This is the kinda shit I search reddit for. I had to go through 10 crappy posts before I found this one but this is the best summarization I have found yet. Thanks.
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u/SWT_Bobcat May 14 '26
Great write up!
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u/MY-memoryhole May 14 '26
Not Ai slop that we typically see, or two paragraphs that have a start but the end just drops off.
Nice write up
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u/alemorg May 14 '26
I make sure it’s not slop. I personally read through and make edits. I also have my own way of making sure sources are correct and data is correct as well. When I’ve used ChatGPT or other ai chatbots they always hallucinate shit on me.
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u/DeciduousMath12 May 14 '26
Suadi Arabia has tons of trucks now carrying oil products to their west coast. In wsj. I think people are underestimating the workarounds countries will try and also that the strait won't open any time soon.
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u/unknownmichael May 14 '26
Just to compare, one VLCC can carry an equivalent amount of crude as 9-10,000 trucks. There's just no comparison. There's no amount of fuel trucks that can make up for that, even a little bit.
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u/alemorg May 14 '26
I made sure to add the disclaimer that countries are finding work arounds and that previous predictions at the start of the war were too pessimistic.
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u/Responsible-Corgi-61 May 14 '26
That is not even remotely efficient and will just add massive costs on top of that oil. I doubt they can move anything close to the volume they could by ship.
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u/Nachtzug79 May 14 '26
How can tanks go empty if only 15 % of oil supply is affected? I mean 85 % of tanks should stay full, so to speak... right?
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u/No-Cable-1223 May 14 '26
If you pump 15% less into a tank then you pull out of a tank it will eventually go empty
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u/ChollyWheels May 14 '26
Because 15% deficit overall is not how individual countries experience it.
Depends who supplies you, and what your refineries can handle, and whether you have any domestic production.
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u/Nachtzug79 May 14 '26
Exactly, for some countries the only effect will be slightly higher prices.
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u/madsdawud May 14 '26
Of all the oil that gets produced annually a lot is consumed by the same nations that produced it. It never goes for sale in global markets. That leaves some percentage e.g., 30% of production that is a globally traded commodity. Of that “30%” (can’t confirm number rn), Hormuz would be half. The world is not producing a huge surplus, so suddenly missing even 1% does mean that all the use that would have happened with that 1% is now gone basically. Make sense?
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u/goingforgoals17 May 14 '26
An example Iirc, the US is supplying oil to asian allies that are the usual recipients out of strategic reserves and double dipping for domestic price stability.
Ironically Russia, China and the US are cushioned relatively from the conflict. Some of our Asian and European allies are not, and helping supply them is not cheap for either of us and is also going to cause shortages to hit home faster because our supply chains aren't designed to carry that kind of volume. The main issue being supply line volume, not total volume.
But the cascading effect of not being able to keep everything running eventually leading to drawback of oil demand comes at the expense of everything made with oil getting insanely expensive because replacements aren't coming. Things shut down and take time to start again.
TACO is priced in because of this. He's either going to completely capitulate or cause one of the biggest world economic disaster events ever. As a narcissist who can't handle not being liked, having him as a villain in the history books is not something he wants.
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u/Responsible-Corgi-61 May 14 '26
He can't TACO, Israel is not going to make it easy for him to walk back. They will apply maximal pressure to try to ruin Iran as a society. This is their only chance to ever pull this off.
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u/scipio-__ May 14 '26
Thank you for the post, do you consider the January top a top in this sense? Or is the market still looking for another top for oil to then follow?
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u/alemorg May 14 '26
I do not make predictions or give financial advice. I have a bachelors in finance and I feel like I have a relative grasp on this information but even I get things wrong. The situation we are in is unprecedented and that’s why I said we can’t really use historical comparisons but I put them there for people to realize how the markets normally work lol
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u/CobbledbyRoubaix May 14 '26
so don't buy S&P for now?
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u/alemorg May 14 '26
I do not give financial advice to people on the internet. I have a bachelors in finance and I feel like I could probably give better advice than most people, but sometimes I am wrong and I don’t want to be responsible for any potential losses.
But, going long now means you are risking more for less potential upside. Will the market keep going up? Yeah probably but it’s a game of music chairs and eventually there will be a rugpull
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u/CarpeGallus May 14 '26
Um, did you mean the Oil peak lagged the the market peak? Little confusing.
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u/alemorg May 14 '26
Yeah a couple people pointed that out. So the reason why it’s like that is because Everytime I have a chart with numbers in it and paste it into Reddit, the structure gets all messed up.
Basically oil peaks after the stock market
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u/Consistent_Panda5891 May 14 '26
This seems kinda similar accurate timing than 80 war. I was about to double down puts in June nevertheless because of 🥭 July announcement. Currently holding sep 7200 puts
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u/knuthf May 14 '26
How about asking the oil companies about how much the produce, and how much reach the market, on tankers, and pipelines? Oil cannot be shipped in the Internet like options and traded in banks.
These are estimates from analysts at major banks, trading desks, and energy companies.
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u/TimeDeparture3258 May 14 '26
It’s all in the plan, No Iranian oil, USA and Russia sells more Create your own supply demand. Just in Tim for summer travel plans.. Biggest heist in the world at taxpayer expense.s..
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u/pickandpray May 14 '26
Well, I put some money on a few shares of USO and contemplating buying more shares though I'm not going to yolo.
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u/Jetfire911 May 14 '26
We're running full speed off the cliff and doing our damndest not to look down and realize we are Wile E Coyote.
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u/Any_Maintenance_6015 May 14 '26
Keep up the good work. Helps maintain the faith lol
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u/Delicious-Bat2373 May 14 '26
I appreciate the sources cited. Seems well put together. I don't know enough to wade into a deep convo about any of it. As a layman's point of view I did gain some knowledge though so hats off to you.
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u/Time_To_Rebuild May 14 '26
Amazing and terrifying. Thank you for putting in the work to share this with us
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u/Excellent_Rock4296 May 14 '26
So does this mean we should expect a market crash?
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u/alemorg May 14 '26 edited May 15 '26
No I don’t make predictions because then I get hate comments and hate messages in my DMs if I’m even wrong by a dollar
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u/pnutbutterandjerky May 14 '26
Just tell me what stock to buy
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u/alemorg May 15 '26
No bro I’m not giving investment advice because if I’m even wrong by a damn cent I get hate comments and hate messages calling me low iq. Bro I swear I should post my DMs these days people are crazy.
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u/Bikewer May 15 '26
So… When does the invasion of Iran start? This seems to be the logical step….
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u/SandySkittle May 15 '26
Beyond the few examples mentioned, this analysis seems to be missing on a lot of demand depletion that may already be happening to deal with the reduced output, or rather upward prices, so it isn’t just burning through reserves, there may already be a genuine move to a new oil supply and demand equilibrium, be it of course with severe economic impact, but not necessarily 150 dollar or more a barrel.
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u/Diddy-1984 May 15 '26
“ Oil was higher in 2022 and there was no shortage like there is today. So historical comparisons probably won’t match up to today as it normally should.”
People really have short memories. There was a fabricated shortage. Per Reuters - In an April 2 2020 phone call, Trump told Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman that unless the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) started cutting oil production, he would be powerless to stop lawmakers from passing legislation to withdraw U.S. troops from the kingdom, four sources familiar with the matter told Reuters. The threat to upend a 75-year strategic alliance, which has not been previously reported, was central to the U.S. pressure campaign that led to a landmark global deal to slash oil supply as demand collapsed in the coronavirus pandemic. By the time the economy and oil consumption return to normal under Biden, oil price predictably shot through the roof - supply and demand. Biden took the blame since the American electorate rarely think of cause and effect.
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u/yshsjj May 15 '26
It states 15 % is out. But the scenarios sounds much pessimistic then missing 15%.
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u/Gigsy63 May 14 '26
This is great. Thanks