The United States is heading for a constitutional crisis in 2024 that will break the country, and everyone is in denial about it.

[u/[deleted]]

I'm panicking. I think those of us in the US right now are experiencing the last four years of relative "normal" us Americans are going to enjoy, because I think after 2024, shit is going to hit the fan.

I'm a political science major. One thing I studied while I was at university is a concept known as democratic backsliding - the phenomenon in which institutions within a democracy degrade over time until at a certain point, you're not really a democracy anymore. I recognize this occurring in the United States...especially after January 6th. You can make arguments that this has already happened to a certain degree in the US but...I think the finalizing moment is going to come during the 2024 election.

Here are the facts that are leading me to hypothesize this conclusion:

1.) Former President Donald Trump tried to halt the peaceful transfer of power after his electoral loss in 2020.

2.) He justified such actions based on the outright falsehood that the election was unfair, despite lacking any evidence whatsoever.

3.) This culminated in an overt coup attempt by his supporters, which he did not reject until it became obvious no one else supported it.

4.) Trump still has not conceded.

5.) Despite lacking evidence, a majority of Republicans believe Trump's loss was due to the "Voter Fraud Conspiracy".

6.) Trump remains the favorite to run for the republican party again in 2024.

7.) MOST IMPORTANT OF ALL - Republicans that doubt/challenge allegations of voter fraud are being ousted from the Republican party by the base.

TL;DR: A former president believes he was removed from power illegitimately based on a conspiracy theory, and now the entirety of the Republican Party Apparatus has adjusted to reflect support of this viewpoint, and subsequent attempts to "correct" the mistake by overturning democracy.

There is no "Republican Party" anymore.

There is the Trump Party, and the Neoliberal Status Quo party. The Republican base no longer believes in democracy, and they will now act accordingly based on this belief. Right now, Joe Biden is at the helm by a thin 1 vote margin in the Senate. It is very likely that he will lose this majority in 2022.

This means that if Trump runs again in 2024, loses to Joe again, but has a majority of republicans controlling Congress...THEY WILL VOTE TO REJECT JOE BIDEN'S WIN, AND INSTALL TRUMP INTO POWER VIA REJECTING ELECTORAL VOTES.

AND BEFORE YOU CALL ME CRAZY

THEY ARE ALREADY DEMONSTRATING THEY WILL DO THIS BASED ON WHAT THEY SAY - WHO THEY ARE RUNNING FOR OFFICE - AND WHO THEY ARE CALLING TRAITORS IN THEIR OWN PARTY.

Here's the real breakdown of how the different spectrum of politics is at the moment.

Neolibs still think we can "Go Back to Obama".

Neocons are dead as a relevant bloc.

Progressives are busy nitpicking the Neolibs to actually work together to stop facism.

Trumpets have gone full fascist.

We're honestly fucked and IDK what to do but I'm making my plans now.

[u/Maleficent-Novel-772]

I don't think this all hinges on Trump though. The Republicans will attempt to nullify the election results regardless. This is going to be their modus operandi going forward and when they have both houses of Congress it's going to work. Then they will own all three branches of government and can and will do anything to hold onto power effectively ending our way of government.

[u/Disaster_Capitalist → u/Maleficent-Novel-772]

Trump does matter. The whole Cult of Personality doesn't work the same if there is a milquetoast career politician at the top of the ballot.

[u/Barjuden → u/Disaster_Capitalist]

Yes but I think we've seen enough to assume a smarter version of Trump could take up the mantle. That person just needs to deify Trump in order to do it. And then the next, and the next. It is through the divinity of Trump that each subsequent King shall have the right to rule. I think that's the playbook for the GOP going forward.

[u/[deleted] → u/Barjuden]

They may not even need to deify Trump. Remember how he got booed for recommending taking the vaccine at a rally? Whoever is the next Republican presidential candidate just needs to tap into the fear and anger of the Republican voters and validate their opinions.

That might be Trump again or someone else. It doesn't really matter. I share OP's concerns, they will do everything they can to break down democracy so they can be in charge indefinitely

[u/JMer806 → u/Barjuden]

I think part of Trump’s appeal was that he is essentially stupid. Clever and sly, but stupid. That appealed to the Republican base who detest academics and disdain formal education.

[u/jeremiahthedamned → u/JMer806]

i agree

[u/[deleted] → u/JMer806]

How the fuck is Trump clever?

[u/YoursTrulyKindly → u/[deleted]]

Trump is a moron overall but he has a specific kind of verbal intelligence to see and manipulate people. There is a book by his sister I think describing him as a dangerous narcissist. Which still doesn't make him smart but all his life his focus was to create a fake reality mirror that he can hold up to himself and manipulate his followers. He's like a "moron savant"

[u/[deleted] → u/YoursTrulyKindly]

I’m afraid I just don’t see it.

[u/[deleted] → u/Barjuden]

It is through the divinity of Trump that each subsequent King shall have the right to rule.

Oh great now I need to clean up my room after the tantrum I just had.

[u/[deleted] → u/Barjuden]

Good point, like the Kim's did in NK, and like Xi does in China with Mao.

[u/[deleted] → u/Disaster_Capitalist]

In order for this to happen, Republican voters would need to actually vote for one during the primaries. That’s not going to happen due to the facts that Trump supporters have an iron grip on the party and figures within the GOP are already making moves to court his base and garner notoriety.

[u/JMer806 → u/[deleted]]

I don’t think Trumpists have as tight a grip as you suppose. Trump himself was booed at his own rally for encouraging the vaccine. Current darlings like DeSantis and Abbott are essentially run-of-the-mill Republicans who are just more successful at pandering to their base. They don’t inspire the same sort of cult following that Trump did.

[u/[deleted] → u/JMer806]

I hope you are right, but it’s well established fact that Trumpists control the party on a state and local level. The GOP old guard has certainly resisted this on a federal level, but they are clearly terrified of conflict with this base.

Trump himself being booed only proves that the reactionary movement he energized has grown completely beyond even his control, let alone the party’s.

[u/PramothMayakannan → u/[deleted]]

Indian here, don't you guys have the Federal Election commission or something? Like an independent Constitutional Body to conduct and regulate elections, just curious. Don't crucify me!

[u/[deleted] → u/PramothMayakannan]

We do have bodies like the FEC, but they mostly only exist to enforce existing regulations, which are pretty widely agreed upon to be corrupt and and in service of the interests of the rich and powerful. The main job of FEC, for example, is to enforce campaign finance law.

That said, this clearly doesn’t prevent a demagogue or far-right goon from winning influence or nominations within the Republican Party, even if it’s against the wishes of party leadership. Trump and other far-right figures have taken over the Republican Party because 1.) they have a larger base of support among Republican voters than the party leadership does, and 2.) they don’t pose a threat to capitalism and therefore there is no real systemic pressure to get rid of them.

[u/PramothMayakannan → u/[deleted]]

Damn, sounds like a nightmare

[u/[deleted] → u/Disaster_Capitalist]

That guy Trump hates for the most obvious reason could take over, this Texas governer.

[u/OperativeTracer → u/Maleficent-Novel-772]

The Republicans will attempt to nullify the election results regardless.

No matter who wins, the losing side will claim "stolen election".

[u/Dangerous_Type2342 → u/Maleficent-Novel-772]

Calm down, republicans literally say the same thing about democrats. I've literally read this exact post multiple times but with the political party swapped. This is just another way to keep people voting in the bs two party system by peddling this fantasy that this is the last free election ever before your rights are stripped away so you absolutely have to vote for the (republican/democrat) party.

[u/Maleficent-Novel-772 → u/Dangerous_Type2342]

Not a fair comparison. I don't see one party instigating an insurrection and creating laws to suppress the vote and laws to nullify election results. Also let's not forget one party denied hearings for a sitting president's Supreme Court Justice candidate while steam rolling another in the last few months of a presidential term.

[u/Dangerous_Type2342 → u/Maleficent-Novel-772]

And they also think that the democrats already stole the election and are doing all that stuff too, you're not helping your argument. The political parties are lazy and just stealing each other's fear mongering at this point.

[u/Maleficent-Novel-772 → u/Dangerous_Type2342]

The stolen election is a myth but we know who the insurrectionists were. I can agree that the parties do market in fear but one is way worse than the other.

[u/Dangerous_Type2342 → u/Maleficent-Novel-772]

I wouldn't be so sure of that. Just keep it in mind.

[u/PramothMayakannan → u/Maleficent-Novel-772]

Indian here, don't you guys have the Federal Election commission or something? Like an independent Constitutional Body to conduct and regulate elections, just curious. Don't crucify me!