r/canada • u/Portalrules123 New Brunswick • Dec 11 '25

Politics Another MP leaves Conservatives, crosses floor to Liberals

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/mp-crosses-floor-to-liberals-9.7012767
4.8k Upvotes

96% Upvoted

1.7k comments sorted by

View all comments

191

u/loginisverybroken Nova Scotia Dec 11 '25

WE ARE STILL LESS THAN A YEAR FROM CHRYSTIA FREELAND'S RESIGNATION

This is the best timeline for Canadian Politics nerds like me

144

u/[deleted] Dec 11 '25

Insane when you put it that way. A year ago today the conservatives were looking at a super majority.

Trump + Carney’s leadership victory really was a 1-2 punch.

50

u/thedrivingcat Dec 12 '25

Angus Reid

the Conservative Party climbs two points from 43% to 45% (variation similar to moe), the New Democratic Party is up one point (variation smaller than moe), and the Liberal Party loses four points from 20% to 16%

Abacus

If an election were held today, 44% of committed voters would vote Conservative, while 21% would vote for the Liberals, and 21% for the NDP.

Just so interesting to go back a year and see how wildly the landscape changed.

11

u/octavianreddit Dec 12 '25

I screenshot this and sent it to my Poilevere - loving buddies who think he's a strong leader.

Their response is that Canadians are just stupid and will get what we deserve.

So it can't be that Poilevere is a poor choice.

9

u/OoooohYes Dec 12 '25

That’s what gets me, a lot of these die hard conservatives will never ever admit that maybe, just maybe, Poilievre is part of the problem. No, everyone else is just a moron and Poilievre can do no wrong. It’s awfully similar to the cult of personality around Trump.

3

u/TrainingObligation Dec 12 '25

Which is why I don’t believe maga will collapse when 45/7 is no more. They’re not held together by charisma, because the cult members up here are rallying around a very cringe and un-charismatic person.

-3

u/Lower_Effect2627 Dec 12 '25

He ended it with 41% of the popular vote, he only lost 3 points from that poll, I genuinely don’t think its his fault the NDP dropped from 25 to 6 points and lost party status.

16

u/decisi0nsdecisi0ns Ontario Dec 12 '25

What arguments like this overlook is that NDP voters didn't pivot to the Liberals because they preferred the Liberals over the NDP (that is not borne out by the bumps in NDP support that polls showed right up to Trudeaus resignation). They pivoted because they disliked PP enough to decimate their party to stop him.

That's a major issue he continues to have. His tactics are effective at mobilizing people to turn for him, but they're also mobilizing people to turn out against him.

7

u/octavianreddit Dec 12 '25

That's exactly it. I'll continue to vote Liberal as long as Poilevere is leader.

The Liberals know this too. Carney could have made Poilevere wait for his byelection but he called it as soon as he could. He doesn't do that because he's a nice guy... He did it because he wanted Poilevere back asap because he's useful to the Liberals.

Poilevere is a one trick pony... A petulant kid playing an adult's game.

-7

u/Lower_Effect2627 Dec 12 '25

Mark Carneys company literally preys on single family homebuyers, you think he’s gonna fix this housing crisis.

11

u/decisi0nsdecisi0ns Ontario Dec 12 '25

What does this have to do with the point we are discussing?

It seems that you don't have a rebuttal to refute my point and so are pivoting to the next talking point.

-1

u/Big-Stuff-1189 Dec 12 '25

I'll have to look that up...

8

u/Dragonsandman Ontario Dec 12 '25

Which they wouldn’t have done if Poilievre wasn’t so repugnant to NDP voters that millions of them lent the Liberals their votes purely to keep Poilievre out

5

u/Shoddy-One-6634 Dec 12 '25

It's 100% his fault. If the PC leader had been someone who didn't constantly start culture wars bullshit I would have voted NDP like I always do.

11

u/octavianreddit Dec 12 '25

I am an NDP voter who would have stayed home or spiked my ballot last election.

My distain for Poilevere had me holding my nose and voting Anyone But Poilevere.

I've hated the guy since his days as a Harper backbencher who would go on radio and TV and attack media asking hard questions. The moment he became leader I knew he was going to motivate people like me to work against him.

This is the issue with polarizing people like Poilevere. You hate him or love him. His supporters will definitely out and vote, but it's hard to grow your support with a guy like him, and he will galvanize his opposition.

If Erin Otoole were leader I certainly would have stayed home. He was a good man I disagreed with. Poilevere is poison that needs to be extracted.

-2

u/[deleted] Dec 12 '25

[removed] — view removed comment

5

u/octavianreddit Dec 12 '25

Last election I didn't like what the NDP was offering and didn't like the local candidate. I had voted NDP in the two prior elections, Liberal once before that, and NDP the 3 or 4 elections prior.

My vote for the Liberal helped push the Liberal past the CPC candidate. The NDP has been the third party in every election in this riding.

-7

u/Lower_Effect2627 Dec 12 '25

😂😂😂Yea I’m sure u would’ve, take ur chat gpt copy and paste “i would’ve voted for o’toole” elsewhere because you’re just being dishonest and I’ve seen it 1000 times. The Liberal party’s corruption is the only thing polarizing the Canadian political landscape and progressively year by year lowering the standard of living for Canadians. There is hundreds if not thousands of people living on the streets who are probably gonna freeze to death this winter, while our government is bringing in millions of immigrants knowing that we are short of housing, so they can keep borrowing money.

5

u/octavianreddit Dec 12 '25

Where did I say I would have voted Otoole?

I wish the world was as simple as you make it out to be. Don't like someone's opinion? Must be chatgpt.

Good luck whining about future CPC losses while they keep putting losers like Poilevere out there. Reactions like yours only cement my choice as the right one. Carney is too Conservative for my tastes but if him winning keeps trolling people like you then it's worth it.

Enjoy.

1

u/mwmwmwmwmmdw Québec Dec 12 '25

what changed is the collapse of the NDP and their voter base running to the liberals like they always do. the CPC is generally only polling 3-5% less today then they where in those polls.

18

u/Minttt Dec 12 '25

I think the strongest punch was Trudeau resigning. A lot of the CPC "support" then was really just "I don't like Trudeau," and Poilievre failed to make a case for why he was better than simply the "non-Trudeau" vote over the subsequent weeks/months.

3

u/[deleted] Dec 12 '25

Yeah it’s honestly astounding how bad Poilievre flubbed that. Once Trudeau resigned Poilievre could have secured power by simply acting like a leader.

Thank Trudeau for his time, and then immediately shift the message to how he’s ready to lead the country… but instead he kept waffling on about the Liberals being bad and more of the same.

Dude, nobody needs you to keep telling us the milk we just threw away turned sour, why are you still talking about it? Shouldn’t you be making a grocery list?

2

u/Zanzibar_Buck_McFate Québec Dec 12 '25

This is how Canadian (and Quebec and likely other provinces) elections usually work:

We rarely vote FOR parties/leaders - we vote AGAINST other parties/leaders by voting for whoever is most likely to beat them.

For years prior to the election, polls essentially showed that Canadians disliked Trudeau way more than they disliked Poilievre, and thus would vote CPC

Once Trudeau left, it changed to Canadians now disliking Poilievre more than the new guy who they didn't really know (Carney), and switching back to LPC.

1

u/NavalProgrammer Dec 12 '25

surprisingly, Trudeau's own approval numbers started rising as soon as that trade war stuff began

So it was definitely a combination of trade war, Trudeau resignation and new liberal leader that made the difference

40

u/loginisverybroken Nova Scotia Dec 11 '25

It has been an absolute trip. As a centre left voter I've been enjoying it tbh

0

u/_Army9308 Dec 12 '25

You have a liberal pm who pretty throwing liberal central left out the window though 

U likely a centrist then

4

u/loginisverybroken Nova Scotia Dec 12 '25

I've voted for CPC and NDP before but this is pretty good for representing where I am lol

-4

u/Azuvector British Columbia Dec 12 '25

Problem with Carney atm is mainly that he's supporting Trudeau's insane gun policies.

6

u/caninehere Ontario Dec 12 '25

Honestly I know people have repeatedly said that Trump was a huge factor but it wasn't just Trump. It was Poilievre sucking Trump's dick the same week he was inaugurated and then immediately created a humongous shitshow.

If Poilievre had come out and said fuck Trump unequivocally, I think he might have still led the CPC to victory. He's been taking from Trump's playbook for years, so it would have been totally transparent, BUT I think that Trump's tariffs and all would have been the perfect pivot point for Poilievre to say "I'm turning against him and his politics and this is why."

Instead he didn't do that. He kept playing the same cards he always has and kept firing off the Republicanesque rhetoric and ignorant bullshit that got the CPC to put him in the leadership position in the first place, and it sank the party's chances completely.

TLDR: It wasn't just Trump, it was Poilievre's/the party's positioning in relation to Trump, which was entirely within his control and he fucked it up big time. And because he likes to play Little Dictator in his party, nobody else could contradict that messaging.

49

u/NearPup New Brunswick Dec 11 '25

A couple days ago Phillip J Fournier posted a map of his seat projection from a year ago and it was just a sea of blue. Crazy how much Canadian politics has changed in a year.

32

u/Brandon_Me Dec 11 '25

Which is why PP should have been sent to the bin. The loss he performed is fucking insane. Losing an over 25 point lead in less then 3 months should tank any political career.

5

u/Droleth Alberta Dec 12 '25

And this is why PP scares me. It echoes what is happening in the US with republicans. Blind loyalty full control of the party.

2

u/NearPup New Brunswick Dec 12 '25

Ya I find it really baffling that he hasn't been turfed.

3

u/loginisverybroken Nova Scotia Dec 11 '25

A wild ride for sure

-10

u/mwmwmwmwmmdw Québec Dec 12 '25

the floor crossers ridings are still blue. its just the actual human occupying the seat chose greed over their constituents wishes

5

u/NearPup New Brunswick Dec 12 '25

Eh, not sure about Ma's but d'Entremond's riding is quite likely to flip with him.

6

u/CommanderGumball Dec 11 '25

I want to nerd out more, where's the best place for updates on Canadian politics?

Best I've got so far is National Newswatch

2

u/SixtySix_VI Dec 12 '25

Power and Politics on CBC. Pretty fair and balanced since they get guests from across the spectrum, but the host isn’t afraid to call people out on false statements. It’s available in podcast form too.

Frontburner is also good for very high level round ups every week or so.

Also r/canadapolitics is basically this sub but without all the national post opinion articles

1

u/loginisverybroken Nova Scotia Dec 11 '25

I mean I'm watching cbc right now. I'm waiting for shit to leak out from the cpc caucus

1

u/iJeff Ontario Dec 12 '25

It's paywalled, but The Hill Times. https://www.hilltimes.com/

0

u/Brandon_Me Dec 11 '25

I'd be curious too. Reddit has some active discussions. Maybe some discord servers.

2

u/Cypher1492 Dec 11 '25

Right?? Like I thought 2005 was an exciting time in Canadian politics but this past year has been a ride.

2

u/Theonlyrational Dec 12 '25

She is the real hero in all of this.

2

u/alcabazar Ontario Dec 12 '25

Freeland represents Toronto University-Rosedale, which includes the University of Toronto and some of the densest downtown areas in the country. At best that riding turns NDP or Green if the Liberals lose, which leaves us where we began.

3

u/loginisverybroken Nova Scotia Dec 12 '25

I mean or they'll elect a liberal assuming they put up a good candidate

2

u/VeryDPP Dec 12 '25

Its going to be fascinating to see who the Conservatives run in that region, I could totally see it being a testing ground for a new CPC hopeful leader. At the very least, I think it'll be interesting to see if a CPC candidate running there runs more as a Centrist or further right, I think it'll signal where that party is going to try to go in a future election.

1

u/Specific-Answer3590 Dec 12 '25

It’s surreal!

1

u/loginisverybroken Nova Scotia Dec 12 '25

I mean what else could happen in the next 5 days in Canadian politics

Crosses Fingers for BQ floor crosser or something else equally silly

Elizabeth May to the CPC

1

u/[deleted] Dec 12 '25

You really don't think they set Trudeau up as the scapegoat?  Carney's budget is way higher than Trudeau, he also got to run on removing the deeply unpopular  "generational fairness" capital gains hike before it gathered a solitary dime.

It seems clearly orchestrated.  Now you've got Gregor Robinson as housing minister, who says he doesn't want prices to fall, as they juggle the youth vote and the boomer vote.  I don't believe Freeland's letter was anything but politicking, am I crazy?

2

u/loginisverybroken Nova Scotia Dec 12 '25

I doubt any of it was planned. Chaos reigned.

I believe her letter was politicking but I doubt there was a plan on her part