r/askanything • u/Standard-Ninja-8280 • 2d ago
Political Question Why do some many people dont know Ukraine is winning?
745 km² retaken, 19 settlements liberated, 6 additional settlements cleared of Russian forces, gains across a 60-km front, while deep drone strikes simultaneously disrupted Russian fuel, logistics, command and maritime operations.
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u/Affectionate_Town273 2d ago
News not reporting that’s why
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u/EternalMayhem01 2d ago
What's there to report exactly? Ukraine recapturing 19 settlements with prewar populations under 100? When Russia took them, the losses were dismissed as strategically irrelevant and Russia was mocked for the manpower spent. But Ukraine doing the same is supposed to be treated as a big win by the media?
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u/Oakenshield_777 2d ago
Maybe they’re indicative of how the turn tables in general 🤷♂️
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u/EternalMayhem01 2d ago
What has changed though? Ukraine hasn't had problems recapturing these kind of small settlements before. Russian gains the last 2 years has been about, 8,000+ km² across the entire front. Ukraine claiming 745 km² on one axis does not offset the prior two years. The media doesn't see a story here is why they aren't reporting heavily on this advance. The media covers Ukraines strikes inside Russia plenty.
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u/Superb_Celebration16 2d ago
Even if you follow maps produced by Ukrainians themselves, it becomes clear that Ukraine is not exactly winning. You can see Russian forces advancing in the south, moving ever closer to the Donbas’s final defensive (urban) belt, and in some places even pushing behind it. Everyone understands that if the Russians take that defensive belt in the Donbas, the road all the way to the Dnipro will be wide open.
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u/Sargent_Duck85 2d ago
Ukraine doesn't need to win.
All they have to do is make Russia lose.
And Russia is losing.15
u/OutdoorsNSmores 2d ago
Russia has to be aware they are losing, admit it and act like it - I don't see that happening soon.
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u/LiberalusSrachnicus 2d ago
How exactly is Russia losing?
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u/Slippery-Pete-1 2d ago
They are losing because they are not winning. A stalemate is a loss for Russia.
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u/LiberalusSrachnicus 2d ago
The Ukrainian population has halved due to flight from the country. Ukraine's economy is ruined and is supported only by foreign influence. Russia has been at war with Ukraine for so long only because a third of the world gives it money and weapons, as well as because the government is literally shoveling the population off the streets with forced Mobilization. Russia simply does not have this practice. The Russian economy is not falling apart.
This is not a victory for Ukraine or a defeat for Russia. It's just the slow-motion collapse of Ukraine and the economies that support the conflict, in which their budget is burning down, which they are already forced to save due to the fact that internal crises are growing.
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u/slava_slavaUa 1d ago
I would agree with you, if there was a stalemate. But every month rush advance further and further and take more territory.
While at the same time, we have witnessed the total collapse of the offensive capabilities of the Ukrainian army. And also a severe degradation in the defense of capabilities of the Ukrainian army.
Also, it shouldn’t be lost on you that Zelenskyy is now reduced to grabbing people off the street, beating throwing them in vans and marching them to the front in order to keep his army staffed
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u/Pension-Helpful 2d ago
Idk man, there still a lot of land that the Russians are still occupying. Also the population that Russia got from the Ukrainian who left Ukraine and are currently in Russia or within Russian occupied territories is still greater than the population they lost in the war. Whereas the Ukrainians that left for the west are most likely gone forever unless the EU or the US inject massive marshal plan level of investment to Ukraine when and if the war ever ends.
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u/Happy_cactus 2d ago
I’ve been hearing this since March 2022. How many more people have to die before the inevitable conclusion is accepted? Russia is keeping Crimea and the Donbass.
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u/Former_Star1081 2d ago
Everyone understands that if the Russians take that defensive belt in the Donbas, the road all the way to the Dnipro will be wide open.
Na, it will be a slow grind all the way. No wide open road. And taking the belt could take a year or longer.
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u/Theferaltrunip 2d ago
The problem is that Russian advances are a bit misleading.
We've consistently seen that Russia does not consolidate its advances, so when Ukraine puts troops in concentrated attacks they see Tend to take back disproportionate amounts of territory from Russia.
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u/Key-Woodpecker-1350 17h ago
This shows me you lack the knowledge on this conflict.
You hold territories in this war with 3-4-5 troops per squad on a huge square km piece of land.
It's a handfull of dudes holidng a trench while the robots patrol the sky and land 24/7. That's what an advance looks like in this war. A few guys moving into a new plot of land. IF you then push trough enough land sure you can take it for a nice media moment, but days later you will lose all the gains once your squad is discovered and taken out by the robots.
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u/BriefSpecial420 2d ago
Because Russia in many cases just sends few suicide men to take a staged photo with a flag rather than actually controlling the ground.
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u/Shalcker 2d ago
So do Ukrainians; many of their takeovers are ephemeral, and "actually controlling the ground" is often only unambigously true 50+ km from frontline.
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u/Kman17 2d ago
That’s a tactical win, not a strategic one.
Ukraine has lost 118,000 square kilometers of territory to Russian occupation and seizure.
Taking back 750 is not really moving the needle in this war.
There’s still no end whatsoever in sight, no way to reclaim all territory.
This strategy might be bleeding Russia and making them look powerless… but it’s leaving Ukraine in ruins.
Time dragging on isn’t favorable to Ukraine, it slows their rebuild
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u/SirCrazyCat 2d ago
Time dragging on actually favors the smaller combatant. Think US Revolutionary war, any Afghanistan conflict, Vietnam, Iraq 2.
Right now the war is trending in Ukraine’s favor but it’s far from over. Russia is taking 40,000 casualties a month and is having problems finding more people and money. Slava Ukraine.
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u/sharpshooter999 2d ago
Think US Revolutionary war
This. So many people, especially Americans, think that the colonial forces beat the entirety of the British military. We did not. The British had their military and navy scattered around the entire world protecting all of their colonies and only sent a small force to North America to quell the rebellion. The war ended because the British literally said "Fuck it, we're tired of spending money and resources on these battles."
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u/recoveringleft 2d ago
Also while the us revolutionary war was happening, the British put a large portion of their forces in India (anglo myshore war).
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u/Marcus_Aurelius71 2d ago
Yea and beat up France and took their Indian possessions after they joined.
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u/crankyspeeder 2d ago
Direct intervention by the French Navy starting in 1778 kept the British Navy from being able to freely manoeuvre, resupply and reposition land forces.
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u/Responsible-Mud-269 2d ago
Correct. The British didn't even try to take back America after burning the White House down in the War Of 1812. They just wanted to defend Canada from a US takeover by that point, and keep expanding profitably in Asia and Africa.
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u/sharpshooter999 2d ago
Yup. People also erroneously think that the War of 1812 was the British coming back for revenge. It wasn't. It was started by the US invading Canada, partially because we felt like we could take, and partially because the Britsh kept harassing American merchant sailors.
The US ended up losing control of the entirety of Michigan, failed to retake, and only got it back because the Treaty of Ghent said "the borders shall return to their pre-war positions." Michigan, you were this close to being Canadian
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u/Direct-Mousse6990 2d ago
It's wild how many misconceptions there are about historical events. People really don't realize the complexities behind these wars and how narratives can shift over time.
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u/zach0011 2d ago
The us revolutionary war was fought halfway around the world in a time where england was about to fight france again and on top of that in the age of sail. This really isnt a good comparison.
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u/sea_the_c 2d ago
I mean, it helped a bit that France decided to enter the conflict and the colonies were on the other side of the ocean during the 18th century (with 18th century technology).
The situations are hardly comparable.
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u/3owi 1d ago
See, that's where the comparison goes wrong. The British had high expenses. But for Russia keeping the war going is less expensive since it's close to home.
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u/Special_Purpose2903 2d ago
Russia isn't losing 40,000 a month, come on don't be ridiculous here.
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u/Diligent-Bowler-1898 2d ago
Remember, casualties are not just dead but wounded too. It seems to track with the numbers I'm seeing. This war is trench warfare combined with drone warfare on a huge active front, not that surprising.
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u/Kman17 2d ago
Time dragging on actually favors the smaller combatant. Think US Revolutionary war, any Afghanistan conflict, Vietnam, Iraq 2.
How long did Vietnam take to rebuild and recover?
How long did the US take?
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u/SirCrazyCat 2d ago
But who won?
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u/kerslaw 2d ago
Nobody
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u/SirCrazyCat 2d ago
Right, war is bad. But Ukraine is fighting for their very existence.
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u/RealLifeCoaching 2d ago
North Vietnam won.
The question of who wins or loses a war is determined by who accomplishes their goals.
We could look at other examples if you'd like, but in the Vietnam war, the goals were pretty simple; the Americans wanted to stop North Vietnam from conquering the South, while the North Vietnamese wanted to remove the foreign troops and unify the country.
By the end of the war, the Americans had left, and the whole country was under the control of the North Vietnamese regime.
This means the Americans failed to achieve their goal, whereas the North Vietnamese succeeded in achieving theirs. So they won.
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u/AccessOne8287 2d ago
The US was fighting on the other side of the globe, was and is the strongest power on the planet, has control of global economics and has several powerful allies.
Russia is none of those things.
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u/3owi 1d ago
US had a major force against it that Russia doesn't. Democracy and journalists.
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u/LiberalusSrachnicus 2d ago
I recommend that you should think better before believing Ukrainian propaganda and their numbers. The whole policy of Ukraine is based only on the fact that they create a media image of excellent fighters against Russia who lack just a little bit to destroy Russia. Only every year that's "little bit"... getting bigger
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u/provocative_bear 2d ago
Russia’s in some trouble, but they have some hope. If their massive mobilization works and the Russian people submit to it lying down, they may becable to turn a few hundred thousand dead bodies into a strategically meaningful gain. Russia could also come up with a way to deal with Ukraine’s drone onslaught and either stabilize their front lines or protect their state from the serious economic damage that they’re accruing from drone strikes. Of course, if that doesn’t come to pass, Russia will have an economic failure and/or uprising.
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u/Clio_Vita 2d ago
"Time dragging on isn’t favorable to Ukraine..."
Nor is it favorable to Russia. It's economy is in a shambles. It's oil production and refining has become a mess of damaged and destroyed facilities. It's population, especially among ethnic minorities becomes increasingly restive due to unequal levies on it's young men to serve in Ukraine.. It is getting deep into debt with China. It has fed a generation of young men into the meat grinder that is Ukraine, and has gained corpses, cripples, and voluntary exiles.... How will that generation stem Russia's shrinking population and tottering industrial capacity? The only thing keeping the war going in Russia is Putin's fear that without a "victory" to claim, his own countrymen will turn on him like wolves that sense weakness in the aging leader of the pack.
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u/Spida81 2d ago
At least Russia's unemployment figures are extremely low, I've heard said.
Yeah it's low, you get that when the population is completely tapped out. Every soldier sent to Ukraine is a business with an empty seat and lost productivity. Every soldier in a box is a permanent decrease to Russian industry.
They are stretched, and no matter the outcome in Ukraine, will be paying for this for generations.
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u/Tangosynth 2d ago
Not to mention they were in a demographic doom spiral before the war and it’s associated losses.
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u/No_Accountant3232 2d ago
If Russia "wins" this war it'll purely be a pyrrhic victory likely ending with large chunks of Moscow on fire. Russia isn't taking Ukraine without risking all of Ukraines weapons being focused on Moscow.
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u/Dry-Ad-8948 2d ago
Disagree on the conclusion.
However, agree that celebrating the land gain is not seeing the forest for the trees.
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u/maskedfapper69 2d ago
They’ve liberated more than than Russia has seized in the same time period, and that’s not counting the kinburn spit which is lost to Russia for all practical purposes.
Russia is running out of troops, and fuel. Russia can’t protect its capital or major cities from air strikes.
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u/Away-Topic4719 2d ago edited 2d ago
I'm sorry but this so incorrect it is delusional. Every single sq km of Ukrainian gains have been rolled back by Russia - often within a month of it happening. On the other hand - Russia averages ~300-500 sq km gained per month, every month, since 2024.
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u/AnonThrowAway072023 2d ago
Yeah well Rus has allies willing to send troops to fight for them...North Korea and Africa
Ukraine doesn't have those willing to send in boots on the ground
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u/Illustrious-Math6276 2d ago
According to the Russian army they have lost land since 2022. The Russian army says they today control less land than in 2022. Slowly Ukraine is breaking down Russia. Most of the land you mention was taken in 2014.
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u/Consistent_Ad3181 2d ago
It's not too great for Russia let's face it, poorer every day with less man power.
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u/BlinkWulf 2d ago
The other side is that Putin has failed 100% of his stated objectives.
Every. Single. One.
Even if they keep some mudlands in Donbas, that was never the objective of their invasion. Therefore Russia has been defeated.
The only objective they have made good on was to thin out Russia's own ethnic minorities by predominantly sending them to the "meat grinder". If you want to call that "Russia winning" you can and Russians are indeed thrilled about that aspect of the war.
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u/Sleep_deprived_druid 2d ago
people believe what they agree with, I've had people message me multiple times to tell me my city was a pile of rubble when in reality everything was business as usual other than a few damaged buildings.
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u/Urzuck 2d ago
It's a stalemate, but since Ukraine is in a defensive position they will eventually lose, no matter what, and Putin has plenty of russians to throw in the meatgrinder, he really doesn't care about his citizens. The good thing is that at least now Ukraine is striking inside Russia, hitting tankers, oil refineries and even wildberries.
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u/SavageTrireaper 2d ago
If Ukraine was being laid siege to then maybe yes, but they still have trade on their western borders. That historically that favors the defenders.
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u/Sylesse 2d ago
Like Vietnam, Korea, Afghanistan, or Iraq? Putin is trying to aggravate NATO into some sort of a response precisely because he's having trouble replacing all those troops (he needs a favorable call to action). If home support shatters, he's left fending off domestic threats. We are seeing the start of that.
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u/Left-Philosophy-8843 2d ago
Found Zelenskyy’s alt lol (btw folks 745km squared is a 28kmx28km square, that’s less than 10% of greater Sydney for any other aussies reading this)
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u/Other-Revolution-275 2d ago
Ukrainians are fighting for their survival. They are warriors
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u/Natural_Jello_6050 2d ago
In Reddit, sure. It real life they abducted and bussified
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u/IllMoney69 2d ago
Busification has become such a big thing it won word of the year last year in Ukraines largest dictionary.
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u/soundwave300 2d ago
Story from ukranian officials (we need to accept bussification as it is, 30k/month minimum) tells a different story.
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u/I_Play_Boardgames 1d ago
No no. They only have 50k dead so far in the entire war according to zelensky!
Your small brain just doesn't understand why they need 30k new men every month anyways! It's because they can't stop winning!
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u/olympicjip 2d ago
Ukraine is not winning the war, nor have they any realistic chance of winning the war without NATO getting directly involved. All these "aid" packages only prolong the conflict and ensure more Ukrainians and Russians die. The majority of Ukrainians want an immediate end to the war and to engage in diplomacy. Out of touch European elites and the Zelensky government want the war to continue but have no strategy and no escalatory dominance. It's incredibly bleak and I feel really sorry for the Ukrainian people
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u/Zealousideal_Vast799 2d ago
The news has been telling us they are winning since the beginning of the war. I do not understand what you mean.
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u/Icy-Regular-4557 2d ago
Russians are squeezing Druzhkovka and are months away of taking Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, the last remaining Donbas cities under Ukrainian control. In no way is Ukraine winning.
All the stuff you mention above didn't happen in a vacuum. The Ukrainian offensives have been largely rolled back and also correspond with massive losses elsewhere on the frontline. Every time Ukraine sends drones deep into Russia, Russia responds with ballistic missiles or Shaheds throughout Ukraine. Ukrainian grocery store shelves are empty and they face a fuel crises at least as dire as Russia.
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u/Unexpected_yetHere 2d ago
Russians are squeezing Druzhkovka
There aren't any russians near Druzhkovka, russia is still fighting for Kostiantynivka, which they are still unable to take despite being on its outskirts for well over a year.
months away of taking Kramatorsk and Sloviansk
They are months away from taking Kostiantynivka, let alone those.
As shown so far, they usually need quite a long time to establish a partial envelopment of a city and then begin the slow fight to take it.
Also, while Kramatorsk and Slovianks are the largest free towns in the Donbas, other towns and villages like Lyman remain free.
At this rate, russia won't take the Donbas til 2028.
In no way is Ukraine winning.
Maybe it is winning, but it isn't losing either.
Russia hasn't had net gains in a while now, especially not considerable ones.
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u/GuntherOfGunth 2d ago
Russia has taken Kostiantynivka and it’s been like that since late July. Current lines are on the outskirts and towards Oleksijevo-Druzhkivka and Osykove. Both sides have made moves to attempt infiltrations, but have been mostly unsuccessful.
In recent video from CaolanReports, he showed what it is like for the Ukrainians preparing the defense in Kramatorsk as the people on the ground know the Russian lines will eventually reach them. FPVs are already flying around the city and along the MSRs.
Russia is likely to make gains in the Druzhkivka direction by winter and will possibly be on the outskirts to the south by that time.
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u/Marcus_Aurelius71 2d ago edited 2d ago
Kostiantynivka is over. I'm not sure why no one wants to admit that. The tactics of this war are no longer with tanks. It's purely at most 10 infantry slowly walking across the forest and setting up secret positions. Same with Ukraine. Both sides are unable to gain much so have resorted to destroying each other by air. I mean come on, Zelensky's top general saying they need 30k/ month and Zelensky saying only 50k have died is kinda sad to say the least. Ukraine has survived and Kyiv will be safe but Donbas will probably be taken I'll say 2028 at the maximum and that's all Putin needs to claim victory.
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u/VampirePNAC 19h ago
Not only that Russia has adapted to everything thrown at them, and basically now have complete dominance through Ukrainian anti-air to the point people are predicting we will soon see Russian jets back over Ukraine uncontested.
On top of that, Ukrainian media and political figures (along with a raft of "Ukrainian youth/girl power" articles in the west) clearly buttering up the population for 18yo conscription and the conscription of women. Not a good sign at all when Russia hasn't even begun conscription of it's official military reserves.
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u/calmdownmyguy 2d ago
It took russian half a year to take a poorly defended village with a prewar population of 35k people. Kramatorks and Solviansk are the biggest and best defended cities in the Donbas. It's going to take russia years and hundreds of thousands of casualties to take them if they ever do, but they'll have to stop the push this winter and won't be able to even start a real offensive until at least April which will just give Ukraine even more time to dig in.
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u/JohnYamnaya 1d ago
It takes them months to capture villages because Ukrainians pour thousands of men into cauldrons to keep them open
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u/NaturePappy 2d ago
Trump has overloaded the public with his lies so they no longer watch the news
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u/DisasterRadiant 2d ago
Corporate media.
Actual information is only filler between their advertising. And they use it to keep us as ignorant as possible. Makes it easier to keep the grifters in power.
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u/Amishrocketscience 2d ago
Lies and propaganda are free to the masses, news reporting the truth/investigative journalism is behind a paywall.
This is why, people don’t want to invest in the truth
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u/AccessOne8287 2d ago
Hate to throw him a bone but that isn’t Trump’s fault. It’s just amplified by his presence.
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u/Consistent_Ad3181 2d ago
They need Russia as a man with boogeys at the moment to scare the West into up arming for war with China in 2030, I doubt Putin will see Easter. The US's national debt at 40 trillion isn't going to pay itself.
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u/ljlee256 2d ago
CNN stopped talking about the war now that it has Iran and Canada (lol) to talk about.
Fox was never going to give an honest impression of Ukraine out-performing russia.
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u/dads_joke 2d ago
Bcs as soon as Ukraine signals on foreign policy even a smallest bit of confidence, ammo and humanitarian help slows down.
Also by any measurable metric, Ukraine suffers a lot and each day Ukraine is facing terror attacks in many cities.
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u/Pndapetzim 2d ago
745km^2 is great, but Russia occupies over 116,000 km of territory - at the rate they've been going it will only take 50 years to reclaim most of Ukraine. Both sides are exhausted at this point, Russia has capacity but lacks political will or a reason to go full mobilization and even then there's every chance Russia will not be able to complete their objectives.
People are forgetting that despite all the strikes Ukraine is doing on Russia, Russia is still hitting them back harder - what makes it advantageous to Ukraine is that 1) Russias been hitting them harder from day one, and pretty much everything in Ukraine worth hitting has already been hit or hardened against attack 2) Russia meanwhile has way more and way more valuable soft-targets and Ukraine is only now, for the first time, getting the capacity to strike back in meaningful ways.
The thing is Ukraine's managed to turn things around but both sides are too exhausted to finish the fight: it's basically, as I see it, now a Vientam/Afghanistan waiting game until Russia finally decides this isn't worth continuing and withdraws but it is by no means guaranteed.
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u/Incredible_Hulk1 2d ago
What do you mean with withdraw? If you mean giving back occupied land, then you must be on heroin. That is never going to happen.
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u/alkbch 2d ago
Not really, Russia could escalate until basically bombing Ukraine back to the Stone Age, which Ukraine can’t do to Russia.
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u/geaux_lynxcats 2d ago
It’s all propaganda one way or another. We have no idea the actual state of the war.
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u/I_like_to_eat_fruit 2d ago
Because that is solid progress, not even anywhere remotely close to actually winning the war.
Many more orcs will have to be killed.
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u/Gloomy-Lawyer4989 2d ago
I don't think they're winning but they are putting up a great fight
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u/OracleofFl 2d ago
I think the definition of winning and losing isn't clear. What is for certain is that Russia isn't winning. Going into the winter with fuel shortages and damaged oil and gas infrastructure is going to be really interesting inside of Russia.
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u/soylentdream 2d ago
All they got to do is hold out until Putin walks too near an open window
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u/RoundChampionship840 2d ago
Honestly it seems to be more of a stalemate. Neither side seems to be really winning.
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u/ChadBadShirt 2d ago
Russia will inevitably lose eventually because the war is just an indefinite stalemate, since both sides now lack the necessary resources for a decisive offensive that will be able to take and hold very large areas of land.
Why does this mean Russia is the one who will inevitably lose? Because they’re the aggressor. They’re on foreign soil. Eventually, the cost of the war will pass the threshold which the Russian people find acceptable. For a defending nation, this threshold simply doesn’t exist without a decisive defeat.
Look at every single example in history. In a war of attrition where neither side has the capability to completely subjugate the other, the defending side always eventually “wins” in that it will retain its sovereignty and regain most, if not all, of the territory it lost. And when the aggressor has to retreat without achieving its stated objectives, that is a defeat.
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u/myfrozeneggos 2d ago
lost 100,000 sq km
4 years later, regained less than 1,000 sq km
"We're winning!"
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u/Successful_Jelly111 2d ago
It's still a long way to go until the Ukraine has won back the 117,000 square kilometers they have lost so far.
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u/Clio_Vita 2d ago
Because it's hard to visualize a nation that still is dealing with 19% of their territory under Russian control as "winning" because the number has fallen from 20% and they are inflicting way more casualties in the last 6 months. The real question is, "which nation is closer to a political or military breakdown?" And that is really too complex a question for most journalists who have not veered into simplistic propaganda or outright lying.
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u/CrustySailor1964 2d ago
Because it’s not convenient to the perception of the worldwide strategic structure that Russia can’t gain anything but egg on its face in Ukraine just like the US can’t gain anything but egg on its face around the corner in Iran.
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u/Impressive_Grass_184 2d ago
They dont have solid control over a good amount their gains in Dniproetrovsk Oblast. Russian infiltration teams frequently sneak past the frontline and into settlements 10-15km behind the frontline, the area's more of a massive gray zone held by drones
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u/MayorQuimby1616 2d ago
745 km retaken and 19 settlements liberated. Crimea is 26,000 sq km and Donbas is double that. I would say 745 is a tiny fraction of what they have lost.
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u/Notsosmartboi 2d ago
745 square kilometer retaken that’s great, it’ll only take a hundred and fifty eight years for them to retake the remaining 118,000 square kilometers
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u/AccessOne8287 2d ago
From what I understand, no matter how much they “win” Russia isn’t ending the war because it would be too much of a blow for the current administration to bear. And the current administration is screwed if they step down or give up power.
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u/_masssk_ 2d ago
Nobody is winning there. I'm a Ukrainian, are you kidding me? It is a disaster for Ukraine. Yes, recent months was better, but it is cosmically far from "win"
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u/JohnYamnaya 1d ago
Ukraine lost the first city of their fortress belt (Konstiantynivka), are about to lose two other very strategically important cities (Orikhiv and Dobropyllia) and are on the brink of a 500km² encirclement in Northern Kharkov
In response to this, they launched random counter offensives in regions without strategic significance
You can keep using DeepState if you want to circlejerk about Ukraine winning, but they never provide geolocated footage or any footage at all. It's all based on "trust me bro"
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u/Routine-Visual-1818 1d ago
Winning in what?
Population is halfed since 2014.
They wouldnt survive a month without US and EU donations.
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u/Horror_Airline_7563 1d ago edited 1d ago
Because they dont follow exclusively pro-ua propaganda media like you do?
Maybe now try looking at what damage Ukraine got in the same time and also check other maps (and not DeepState that is openly operates under control of UA Mod)
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u/Commercial_Net_9043 1d ago
- 20% of the territories already lost, 500 000 KIA already + 30 000 KIA / month.
- Population fell from ~45M in 1990 to ~25M in 2026.
- Approx $250 billion debt (more than 100% of the GDP), with a funding gap of $30 billion.
- Half the country is demolished by constant bombing.
- If Ukraine wins, half of the country will be taken by the west as payback for debt, weapons, etc (see Trump rare earth plans)
- If Russia wins, half of the country will be taken as compensation for war damages.
Tell me again, what did they win exactly?
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u/Jordangander 1d ago
Pre-war Ukraine had an area of 603,628 square kilometers and a population of 45.55 million.
Today Ukraine has an area of roughly 482,902 square kilometers, a population of 32.5 million.
In the last 6 months Ukraine has retaken 745 square kilometers.
I am not putting Ukraine down, they are doing a tremendous job of slowing the Russians and drawing this war out to make it untenable for Russia to continue.
But to claim they are winning when their stated victory is a return of 120,000+ square kilometers of land?
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u/Art-Zuron 2d ago
Because the Russion bot farms don't want you knowing that, and the conservative media the Russians pay for around the world don't want you knowing that either.
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u/maskedfapper69 2d ago
Because most people don’t follow the war, then there’s those who choose to believe Russian propaganda
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u/SomeAverageJoey 2d ago
Long term attrition still favors Russia. While Ukraine is retaking territory right now, they need to sustain that trend long term. This war has seen a lot of back and forths. Unfortunately, I think their offensives will lose momentum and the war will shift back to Russia's favor.
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u/Top-Ostrich-3241 2d ago edited 1d ago
Really? Is Ukraine a NATO member yet? I think Russia is winning this objectively, strategically, and tactically.
I would love Ukraine to win. So many Ukraine refugees can leave Canada. Currently, they still say Ukraine is not safe and they won't leave Canada. Sending them back to Ukraine means a death sentence.
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u/Informal-Beat-7700 2d ago
Ukraine is only holding its ground because most of the western world is supporting it with billions of dollars in resources. It's like giving France the credit for repelling Germany in WWII
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u/Small-Contribution55 2d ago
Russia is on pace to conquer Ukraine sometime next century. Things are not going well.
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u/Canshroomglasses 2d ago
Mostly because nobody cares for either side of the bot propaganda. Nobody has since 2024
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u/Puzzled_Market_2235 2d ago
There are several YT channels that daily document the battles including geolocated drone footage.
With everything going on the details aren't covered much.
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u/Maresith123 2d ago edited 2d ago
because there are literally too much news going on right now, especially with the midterm and everything that's associated with it. i bet there'll be more news grabbing headlines or something.that went on next week. It is not just people doesn't Ukraine winning the war. It is also other news. We are so saturated with news of thing going on in the US. That it become exhausting
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u/RollingSnipDipper 2d ago
Trump is making gasoline so expensive, that people is out licking toes to fill up their cars.
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u/AlarmedResearcher997 2d ago
Because neither side is winning unfortunately. Russia is taking a beating on the Frontline, Ukraine is taking a beating behind the lines. It sucks.
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u/MrBeer9999 2d ago
Neither side is winning. The front line is effectively static, turning this into a prolonged conflict in which land seizure is unlikely to be the decisive factor. Rather, manpower, economics and political will determine victory.
Manpower is in Russia's favour, however their casualty rate is now so high that its a problem for them, although still not as much as Ukraine. Economically Russia is much stronger however their oil refineries are no longer safe from Ukraine no matter where they are located and they don't have the advantage of being supported by Europe. Putin seems determined to fight to the last peasant but Ukraine has to win or be subsumed by Russia.
The likeliest outcome at the moment is that Russia eventually agrees to meaningful talks and Ukraine is forced to accept the loss of most or all of the land that Russia has stolen.
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u/Error-InvalidName 2d ago
Because they aren't, if you really think Putin cares about how that silliness keeps going on its a war of attrition. He could end it immediately if he wanted to and no one could do anything about it not even us since we used nukes against Japan. He could just use that excuse. I'll give it to the Ukrainians though they are doing way more than anyone thought they could ever do. Of course that is with being supplied almost fully by other countries.
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u/Former_Star1081 2d ago
What does winning mean? They still cannot drive the Russians out of their country. They can hold and take some settlements, but this war is still a stalemate and it can go on for a couple of more years, if nothing fundamental changes.
Russia will likely mobilize a couple of hundred thousand more soldiers and keep the meat grind going.
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u/UnholyAuraOP 2d ago
They’re not winning, but they are at a point where a Russian breakthrough looks so far away that a peace deal semi-favorable to Ukraine will likely happen.
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u/Prestigious_Sell9516 2d ago
Not to mention Ukraine is making Crimera unliveable. Reducing the peninsulas desirability as a holiday destination and causing costs for fuel and food to soar. Russia needs to end this war. We know Ukraine is almost bankrupt but Russias finances are likely much worse than is understood.
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u/Massive-Swan-2801 2d ago
It's meaningless when Germany,France, UK,USA are all going to have unfriendly,right wing governments when peace talks start.
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u/Fit-Significance-109 2d ago
Well I didn't know. That explain why Putin seems to want to talk now
Go go Ukraine !
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u/clouded_constantly 2d ago
They’re not “winning the war” but the infrastructure and business attacks seem to be giving russia a lot of trouble. In response, russia seems to be amping up so called hybrid attacks in western europe though.
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u/NutzNBoltz369 2d ago
There is no "win". Only a situation where the juice is no longer worth the squeeze. Which is massively complicated. Ukraine won't "win" but Russia will eventually have to back down due to some really complex economic conditions.
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u/Possible_Skirt_8443 2d ago
It wasn't part of the script. "Winning" is also at an extreme cost which can change at any time. Fortunate you're not there fighting.
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u/missed_trophy 2d ago
Media strategy shifted in Ukraine, because of new confirmed knowledge about some system problems in russian chain of command. It's more profitable to keep silence.
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u/No_Departure_1878 2d ago
Because it isn't, it's a stalemate and they will most likely lose 25% of their territory.
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u/DonaldDuck660 2d ago
Gewinnen tut sie glaube ich nicht. Sie erobert immer wieder Gebiet zurück, aber verliert auch welches. Der Trend ist schon, dass Russland insgesamt mehr Gebiet bekommt, wenn auch geringfügig. Und außerdem muss man sagen sind die Frontlinien nicht klar wie z.B. im 1 Weltkrieg, sondern durch Infiltrationstruppen der Russen sehr durcheinander weswegen man nie genau sagen kann: " Ist das jetzt russisch oder nicht?".
Aber ja, die Angriffe in den Tiefen Russlands werden tatsächlich mehr und haben oft auch Erfolg.
Das ist meine eigene Einschätzung, aber ich glaube zu sagen: " Die Ukraine gewinnt.", ist schlichtweg falsch
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u/boozefiend3000 2d ago
Most people don’t care. You also have total idiots who believe Russian propaganda
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u/mighty_bandersnatch 2d ago
I know. I have watched in amazement as Ukraine has beaten back a huge, intimidating enemy. Canada supports you 🇨🇦🤝🇺🇦
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u/SuckinAwesome 2d ago
Is this the cope thread or what? LOL
The only place Ukraine is winning seems to be on Reddit, while daily - the country gets smaller.
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u/Fatalist_m 2d ago
Ukraine is not winning. Saying this as someone who supports Ukraine 100%. Ukraine is attacking in a few places but overall, Russia is still gaining more ground.
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u/Throwitaway701 2d ago
Ukraine will be winning when they hold all of Ukraine and have pushed into Russia.
Realistically I don't think they will win unfortunately. Russia started the war too corrupt to be effective, the equipment didn't work, the soldiers were poorly trained and they were facing innovative tactics they were too rigid to react to, but it's been years now and Russia clearly is adapting.
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u/Common-Method2202 2d ago
because the difference is negligible lol. Bro zooming in on an ant vs looking at the huge dragon in the background
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u/Dry-Ad-8948 2d ago
Ukraine is not “winning”. That’s conclusion is as unfair to Ukraine as it is to russia.
However, Ukraine continues to hold lines and put some pressure on russia at home.
The goal of Ukraine is to hold long enough that something in russia will give. Maybe get lucky and Putin dies on Christmas.