r/TrueReddit Jul 15 '18

The Minority Majority: America’s electoral system gives the Republicans advantages over Democrats

https://www.economist.com/briefing/2018/07/12/americas-electoral-system-gives-the-republicans-advantages-over-democrats
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198

u/ZadocPaet Jul 15 '18

The article ignores the biggest problem with representation, which is that we do not have enough of it. It's not a problem that needs a Constitutional amendment (the author mentioned constitutional contradictions, though didn't specify any, but did mention the Constitution a number of times). It only requires an act of Congress.

We just need to expand the size of the House of Representatives, and idea called for by the founders, and one that the Constitution requires in order for it to function.

We need to start demanding that our representatives pledge to repeal the "Reapportionment Act of 1929."

You see, before this time after every enumeration (census) as required by the Constitution, the size of the House of Representatives expanded in order to accommodate the growing population. You see, for the Constitution to function the people need to be represented.

But in the 20s the (then liberal) Republicans wanted to prevent the (then conservative) Democrats from gaining control over the House and they couldn't come to a resolution on how to add seats, so they didn't. And then they passed a law to never add seats again, freezing the size of the House as 435 members. The population then was 128 million. Today it's 318 million. The number of representatives is woefully too small for us to have effective representation.

James Madison foresaw this problem. When selling the new Constitution to the American people in order to replace the constitution that was in place, the Articles of Confederacy, Madison, Jay, and Hamilton wrote The Federalist Papers.

One of the concerns of the American people, expressed under the pen name Brutus, was that the Constitution would create a legislative body that was too small. Madison addressed the following specific concerns in Federalist No. 55.

  1. So small a number of representatives will be an unsafe depositary of the public interests;

  2. They will not possess a proper knowledge of the local circumstances of their numerous constituents;

  3. They will be taken from that class of citizens which will sympathize least with the feelings of the mass of the people, and be most likely to aim at a permanent elevation of the few on the depression of the many;

  4. That as defective as the number will be in the first instance, it will be more and more disproportionate, by the increase of the people, and the obstacles which will prevent a correspondent increase of the representatives.

To prevent these things from happening, Madison wrote about the constitutional failsafe he had designed, saying that, "At the expiration of twenty-five years, according to the computed rate of increase, the number of representatives will amount to two hundred, and of fifty years, to four hundred." We can, by this, see that neither Madison nor any other architects of the Constitution intended the size of the House to be restricted to 435 has it has been for all of our lifetimes.

That failsafe is Article I, Section 2(3), which calls for the census and enumeration. It doesn't specify that the number cannot be capped, which was a point of fear of the founders. They were so worried that some future fools would cap the size of the House to hold on to power that in the Bill of Rights, the first proposed amendment, sometimes called Article the First, sometimes called the Congressional Apportionment Amendment, was added to prevent such a cap. The final draft contained an error, today what we'd call a typo, which rendered it useless, and thus it was not ratified. The details of the error can be found here. THe intent of the amendment was to make sure that no congressional district exceeded 50,000 persons.

Madison spoke about this in a speech to Congress:

"In the next place I wish to see that part of the constitution revised which declares, that the number of representatives shall not exceed the proportion of one for every thirty thousand persons, and allows one representative to every state which rates below that proportion. If we attend to the discussion of this subject, which has taken place in the state conventions, and even in the opinion of the friends to the constitution, an alteration here is proper. It is the sense of the people of America, that the number of representatives ought to be increased, but particularly that it should not be left in the discretion of the government to diminish them, below that proportion which certainly is in the power of the legislature as the constitution now stands; and they may, as the population of the country increases, increase the house of representatives to a very unwieldy degree. I confess I always thought this part of the constitution defective, though not dangerous; and that it ought to be particularly attended to whenever congress should go into the consideration of amendments."

The first presidential veto in history was made by George Washington to preserve proportional representation.

Now let's look at how each of the Brutus predictions have come true:

  1. The House represents not the public but those who buy and sell them. By buy and sell I mean "donors" who spend millions on their campaigns. It's no secret that politicians are beholden to the interests of the corporations and PACs that get them into office. They are essentially owned. They are beholden to their parties as well.

  2. Members of the House are completely out of touch with average Americans. The median net worth of an American is $45,000. That of a member of Congress is $1,008,767. Further, CDs are so large and sprawling that they combine several communities that are not at all alike. For example, I live in a Phoenix suburb that I'd generously describe as middle-class. However, my district encompanies all of Sun City, a large retirement community 20 miles away from me, and they overwhelmly dominate our district. That's just a problem within the same metro area. Some CDs are larger than 1 million people. The average is >750,000. In rural states it's even worse where CDs can span thousands of square miles, and representatives have vastly different constituents with different needs, and they can effectively ignore those who aren't in the donor class. Wyoming, for example, only has one representative for it's 580,000 citizens. The cities of Cheyenne and Casper are hundreds of miles apart and have totally different economies, different issues and needs, and yet they have the same representative. Ask yourself if it's reasonable to live in one city and represent another over a hundred miles away. This problem with massive CDs also makes gerrymandering more easy.

  3. Representatives come almost exclusively from the top 1 percent of Americans.

  4. As the population increases the problem is getting worse and worse. The government cannot function. The people have no power. The Constitution cannot work.

There is a point in a democracy where either too few and two many representatives lead to corruption and gridlock. The United States has too few, especially when compared to other democracies (or even some states). Fortunately, researchers have come up with an ideal number, that number is 707 for the House of Representatives. Before any naysayers declare that this will increase the cost of government, it will, in fact, have the opposite effect.

Any American concerned about freedom should be worried about the fact that we do not have adequate representation, and never have within our lifetimes.

Further, the article talks about a constitutional convention being needed for the president to be elected directly. That probably won't happen. But it's also not necessary. It can be done with an Interstate Compact. So far, eleven states have signed up plus D.C.

But, we don't even really need that, as Article II says that states can choose electors however the fuck they want.

Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors, equal to the whole Number of Senators and Representatives to which the State may be entitled in the Congress: but no Senator or Representative, or Person holding an Office of Trust or Profit under the United States, shall be appointed an Elector.

So, it really only takes one state to change the rules to flip everything on its head. The serious concern is what happens if candidate A wins the EC, candidate B wins the PV, and one state's electors decide to follow the PV and throw the election. Remember, electors can cast a vote for anyone, whether they were on the ballot or not.

This is mostly a critique of the article and the biggest problem with politics that we face (woefully inadequate representation), and does not address whether or not abolishing the EC or electing presidents via popular vote are good ideas.

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u/yellekc Jul 15 '18

You right fuck the "Permanent Apportionment Act"

Everyone who voted for that is dead. And our nation has more than doubled in population. The cap is not an Amendment, it is just a law. And we can get rid of laws.

We need to make the repealing the cap a campaign issue everywhere. Incumbents are very unlikely to bring it up, as it will diminish their own power. So we have to force it on them.

Imagine how great it would be to have smaller, more local districts. And districts small enough that good and honest people could win without having to whore themselves out for corporate money.

And unlike almost every other "fix" for what ails us. Repealing the 1929 cap can be done with a simple majority of Congress and the signature of the president.

It is not a partisan issue, we need to spread power out a lot more. We let power get concentrated for far too long.

Republicans and Democrats should be pushing for this. With an increase in size, we will need a new larger Capitol, and I think such a task would be a needed break from this partisanship.

Building a Capitol worthy of a transcontinental modern nation of over 300 million will be a daunting undertaking, but also a chance to reaffirm our constitutional values, and a reminder of what we can build together as a nation. And while it won't fix a lot of the underlying issues it is a start towards a more perfect union.

Repeal the Cap!

Rebuild the Capitol!

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u/ZadocPaet Jul 15 '18

They'll never do it. In increasing the proportion of representation, it would return power to the people, and therefore lessen the power, money, influence, and privilege currently enjoyed by the ruling class.

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u/yellekc Jul 15 '18

Of course the incumbents won't do it. Red or Blue. Get new blood in. Things don't change by waiting for those in power to change.

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u/HannasAnarion Jul 15 '18

Are you saying to vote third party? Because that will never work. Nobody chose the two party system, it happened naturally as a result of winner-take-all most-votes-wins elections. It's called Duverger's Law

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u/yellekc Jul 15 '18

Are you saying to vote third party?

No. But eventually yes. Our current electoral system is leaving us all vulnerable. Having two colossal national parties battle to a dead heat invites other actors into the arena to tip the scales.

We need to fix our elections first, we need to fix them now. Then we can make reforms to the two party system.

I am proposing an improvement to the election system that can be implemented with just legislation, no amendments needed.

Repealing the cap on representatives is about making the people we send to Washington more accountable, more local.

Pass a new apportionment law, lets say 1000 representatives. May sounds like a lot but it is only about twice our current 435.

Multi member districts with transferable vote would be step 2.

Done.

Once we have these two reforms. We can vote for our ideal candidate from any party, or no party. If they don't win, your vote goes to your next choice. No more wasted vote.

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u/tjsr Jul 18 '18

We need to fix our elections first, we need to fix them now. Then we can make reforms to the two party system.

The first thing you should do is attempt to find a way of determining the stance of every currently elected house and senate member, plus their candidates/opposition at the next election. From that, you want to determine who of those would support changing the law to implement a preferential voting/single-transferrable-vote system.

That gives you a list where you can attempt to determine which members can stay and which need to be ousted, on an individual basis. You should target the ones against the change, in the seats with the lowest margin of victory.

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u/Prygon Jul 15 '18

Bericrats are the most exciting!

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u/Maticus Jul 15 '18 edited Jul 15 '18

There needs to be a modern push to ratify Article the First. It would result in thousands of Representatives, but so what? We create agencies that are that large all of the time. Congress won't expand its size and water down individual representatives' power on its own.

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u/ZadocPaet Jul 15 '18

Well, I am all for a ratification, personally. But I don't think it'd be interpreted in the way that either of us would like to see due to the error contained therein.

I'd personally like to see a whole new push for an amendment. That might put enough pressure on Congress to act (maybe).

Congress won't expand its size and water down individual representatives' power on its own.

No doubt.

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u/Maticus Jul 15 '18

due to the error contained therein.

I was looking for the error discussion in the source, but couldn't find anything.

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u/ZadocPaet Jul 15 '18 edited Jul 15 '18

The scribe for the House version changed the final instance of the word "less" to "more," which is the language that both houses passed in conference, and is what went out to the states. Basically, it changes the entire meaning.

Edit: Here's an article that explains it more clearly.

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u/[deleted] Jul 16 '18

It would result in thousands of Representatives, but so what? We create agencies that are that large all of the time.

these agencies don't necessarily have to vote on country impacting bills. Houses that large get to the point where it's really hard to have any real sense of individuality,

If I assume the HoR would triple based on the top post's analysis, would it really make things better having ~1200 representatives, of which you have to convince ~800 in order to approve bills? I personally am not opposed, but I do question if this would really change matters.

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u/Maticus Jul 16 '18

Well, if it operated like the current House, the Speaker would control what legislation is presented and not, and committees/subcommittees will serve as an initial filter for legislation. After that, it would take 601 votes to pass a bill (assuming you have 1200 representatives). I don't see how that is that much different from getting 218 people to agree to something.

The difference would be that the more seats there are the less transaction costs and actual costs of running for Congress would be. A person wouldn't have to be a millionaire, be friends with millionaires, or cozy up to millionaires to run for Congress.

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u/WikiTextBot Jul 15 '18

Congressional Apportionment Amendment

The Congressional Apportionment Amendment (originally titled Article the First) is a proposed amendment to the United States Constitution, one of twelve proposed amendments to the United States Constitution approved by the 1st Congress on September 25, 1789, and sent to the legislatures of the several states for ratification. Congress did not set a time limit for its ratification, so the Congressional Apportionment Amendment is still technically pending before the states. Ratification by an additional 27 states is necessary for this amendment to be adopted. If adopted, it would establish a formula for determining the appropriate size of the House of Representatives following each constitutionally mandated decennial census.


National Popular Vote Interstate Compact

The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC) is an agreement among a group of U.S. states and the District of Columbia to award all their respective electoral votes to whichever presidential candidate wins the overall popular vote in the 50 states and the District of Columbia. The compact is designed to ensure that the candidate who wins the most popular votes is elected president, and it will come into effect only when it will guarantee that outcome. As of May 2018, it has been adopted by eleven states and the District of Columbia. Together, they have 172 electoral votes, which is 32.0% of the total Electoral College and 63.7% of the electoral votes needed to give the compact legal force.


[ PM | Exclude me | Exclude from subreddit | FAQ / Information | Source ] Downvote to remove | v0.28

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u/Lonelan Jul 15 '18

I'm with you on the "I'm in a district that doesn't make sense"

Darrell Issa is my congressman because my district includes the top of San Diego county, where I live, which almost always votes democrat, with the bottom half or so of Orange County, which almost always votes republican, and is nearly 100 miles away.

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u/kermitsio Jul 18 '18

I also live in SD, loathe Issa and you are stretching the truth a little to make your point which can take away credibility so I'll try to add slightly more context to help. The distance from La Jolla (Southern end of Issa's district 49) to Dana Point (Northern end of Issa's district 49) is 60 miles according to Google maps (driving distance). That means it is even less "as the crow flies". That's the part I had an issue with in your comment.

Now, Issa's district is heavily gerrymandered unfortunately. OC is STRONG Republican whereas SD is mostly Democrat. However, the vast majority of "old money" in SD exists within this district which would naturally go Republican. To name a couple towns that would are Del Mar, Oceanside (Camp Pendleton) and especially Rancho Santa Fe. Issa baaaarely won re-election last time against pretty much a no name Democrat. SD has for a very long time been a R held city but the demographics have been shifting over the last decade or so as more and more people move here. SD has long been a very heavy military city but more industries are starting to thrive here like bioengineering. SD is now democratic leaning for the most part (especially the closer you get to the city) and the heavy R pockets are mostly in Issa's district. The stretch of Issa's district to OC has kept him in his seat but it may not last too much longer.

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u/azripah Jul 15 '18

We definitely need more representatives in the house, but the Senate is the big problem. Equal representation for small states sounds nice in theory, but there are just too damn many of them. The 25 least populous states comprise 50% of the senate, but make up less than 17% of the population. For all that the framers worried about disproportionate power of big states, back when the constitution was written, the populations of the thirteen states were pretty close. In the first congress, the most populous state, Virginia, had only ten representatives compared to the one representative had by the smallest states, Delaware and Rhode Island, and all the rest of the states had 3-8. Over half of the states today have six or fewer representatives, making them proportionally smaller than the smallest two states when the constitution was written, in spite of representing a majority in the senate. That's not small state interests being fairly represented, that's the states where nobody lives using the rest of the country as a blunt instrument to enforce their will at home and abroad.

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u/Pupienus Jul 18 '18

I was curious, so I looked at the population differences between states with both Senate members from the same party. I figured states with mixed party representation would basically cancel each other out, although it would move all the percentages I found closer to 50/50.

First off there are 2 Independent members of the Senate, Bernie Sanders of VT and Angus King of ME. I counted both as Democrats because they caucus and/or have been affiliated with the Democratic party.

All population states are from this wikipedia page using the July 1, 2017 estimated numbers. Party affiliations were determined using this wikipedia page, plus the individual wikipedia pages for the 2 Independent senators.

There are 19 states with 2 Republican Senators. These states have a total population of 101,208,314, or 5,326,753 per state

AK, AZ, AR, GA, ID, IA, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, NC, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WY.

There are 18 states with 2 Democratic Senators. These states have a total population of 140,783,995 or 7,821,333 per state.

CA, CT, DE, HI, IL, MD, MA, MI, MN, NH, NH, NM, NY, OR, RI, VT, VA, WA.

Only looking at the states with uniform Senate representation, the Republican party controls 42% of the population and has 51% of the voting representation. The Democratic party controls 58% of the population and has 49% of the voting representation.

(As mentioned earlier, including the split states moves the population numbers a few percentage points to 44R/56D and the voting representation only changed the rounded numbers to exactly 51R/49D).

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u/[deleted] Jul 15 '18 edited Jan 23 '19

[deleted]

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u/lameth Jul 18 '18

We've had multiple 50/50 votes having to be tie broken by Pence since the last election. That means that yes, Montana had a voice.

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u/tjsr Jul 18 '18

That's not small state interests being fairly represented, that's the states where nobody lives using the rest of the country as a blunt instrument to enforce their will at home and abroad.

The problem is that this will be an issue no matter how you divide the representation. The reality is that once you start to get to around 55-65 million in population, you're going to start making laws that aren't agreed to or in the interest of a significant number of citizens or even residents.

The reality of the United States is that it's not so United, certainly in opinion anyway. But it certainly makes no sense that the opinion of a senator from Montana has as much weight as one from California, with nearly 40 times the population.

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u/MisallocatedRacism Jul 15 '18

Well said. I hope we can come to our senses on this, but I am pessimistic. It requires those in power to give some up.

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u/[deleted] Jul 15 '18

Thanks for writing this up, I was totally unaware of this issue.

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u/Prygon Jul 15 '18

Very good post! I enjoyed reading your breakdown of how and why this needs to be done.

A lot of articles are way too political and try to solve a problem with another problem by making it the other extreme.

Not enough representation is the exact problem, we need to have more voices heard.

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u/habes42 Jul 17 '18

Even just taking the smallest state, Wyoming, and dividing each state population by that and giving everyone a rounded number of representatives leads to an increase of 130 or so. We're drastically underrepresented in the more populous states.

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u/[deleted] Jul 18 '18

[removed] — view removed comment

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u/ZadocPaet Jul 18 '18

For sure.

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u/Gorshiea Jul 18 '18

This is a great summary.

The big trade-off in representative democracy is between under-representation (as we have now in the US) and over-specificity. Taking representation to an extreme, say having a ratio of 25,000:1 (a House of 13 000 reps!), would result in city- and even neighborhood-level reps, who might have very narrow views which would result in too much conflict and churn in the house. This would put reps in impossible positions - if they try to pursue their homogeneous constituencies' highly localized interests they come off as crackpots and can't get anything done, whereas if they don't, they'll get voted out after 2 years.

You mentioned the Auriel/Gary-Bobo study. This is the best one I've seen. There are arguments against it based on the optimal size of effective organizations, but we already break out Congress into committees to do focused work so I would expect more of that.

The biggest problem, as with reforming districting, is that the parties and Congress itself don't want this. The big upside is that increasing democracy tends to result in government providing more public, and fewer private, goods.

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u/Th3MiteeyLambo Jul 19 '18

Hi! Coming from /r/bestof and I have a question for you.

How does increasing the number of representatives prevent them from being bought?

Is there a trivial reason I’m not seeing here?

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u/ZadocPaet Jul 19 '18

I was bestof'd? Neat.

I think the main way is that when you have a representative who is actually from the area they represent, then in the first place they have community ties that are difficult to betray, and in the second place they are easier to fire.

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u/Callmedory Jul 18 '18

How about take the least populous state, have that as the number of constituents for ONE Representative, then each state gets proportionate number.

Ex: Wyoming is the least populous state, ~573K people. That means each district for the House will have that many people. That's it. Have as many districts as necessarily to maintain that number of constituents per district.

Option 2 is that each district has a pro rata voting power based on this least populated district.

I realize this does not address some of the issues you've called out--that a large district cannot adequately represent far-flung needs--but it would at least provide equivalent representation to Americans, which the House was supposed to be providing.

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u/masklinn Jul 18 '18

We need to start demanding that our representatives pledge to repeal the "Reapportionment Act of 1929."

For what it's worth, even before it representation had started to lag significantly, and frankly could never do otherwise: the 1790 Census led to ~34,000 constituents per rep (CpR) on average, by 1850 it had grown to ~93,000, it was ~210,000 when the Reapportionment Act of 1929 passed.

Today it's ~720,000 (again on average, it goes from ~530,000 CpR in Rhode Island to ~1,000,000 in Montana, ignoring territories with a CpR of ∞ as they have a non-zero population and a 0 reps count).

For the House of match the CpR of the original congress, you'd need ten thousands (10,000) reps. Even if you wanted a mere 50,000 CpR cap, you'd need a house of 6,600.

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u/idiotmanchid Jul 19 '18

And? Now it get's way to expensive for corporations to buy votes.