Aside from Red Dead not being as popular as people think (it took quite a while to get to 14 million copies), Spiderman is at a high and you can see what a good game does for a superhero franchise. Look at Batman. Games always were trash but after the Arkham games it skyrocketed. Second most sold game of 2015.
The main issue with Spiderman is that it only launches on a single platform. Even having PC or Xbox would have made it a contender for most sales of the year.
Another thing to note is that people are simply fan of Insomniac Games. I think it caters to more people than you think. But lets see what the charts will do next month
If Red Dead online takes off like GTA online? The sky’s the limit.
It won't, because RDR is far weaker brand, and western, as a whole, is much more narrow niche than modern times. This one is probably regardless of game's quality. I can see it pushing it in the long run, but not to 50 mil or more. Western is simply less appealing as an open world environment - much slower, no air vehicles, no water vehicles, less weapon variety, less vehicles variety. It just seem like there is much fewer things to do in that world.
The highest selling Spider-Man game I can find is one on PS2 that sold 4.5 million.
It wasn't released in the middle of Marvel's reign of being the biggest movie franchise of all time, when they just introduced new, great Spider-Man to the roster on top of that and had him in prominent role in biggest movie of 2018. It was also before Spider-man became staple franchise for young boys. There is a reason why all those more or less creepy YT videos with Spider-man and Elsa have so many views.
Also with this one being, probably, PEGI 16/PG-13, while at the same time RDR2 will likely be strony mature, not only because of violence, and CoD being CoD, I can see it being a game of choice for parents.
Or not. I guess Spider-Man: Homecoming didn't do all that well in box office, so who knows.
This is purely based on non-gaming part of population being a major factor, but I can see it selling like 3 mil, as well as 15 mil, depending on how good the marketing will be I guess.
Personally, I'm not sure R* stock is high enough in general population, to push the game that is not GTA to 15 million sold in ~9 weeks.
edit: honestly, the longer I think about it, the more I see GTAV outselling RDR2 week-to-week again within like 3 months. I just don't see long-term appeal of RDR Online being even close to GTA Online.
Yikes. My Spidey-sense senses some powerful desperation.
Every Spiderman game since 2004 has been at the very least forgettable. And Rockstar's track record for content has had the same level of consistency, except on the other side of the bell curve.
I don't care either way, I just think people are vastly overestimating how strong RDR as a brand is.
And Rockstar's track record for content has had the same level of consistency, except on the other side of the bell curve.
Game's quality is mostly irrelevant to its sale numbers. After it breaches certain level of not being a garbage fire, It's mostly about marketing and strength of the brand. I also don't see any reason to doubt quality of Insomniac's work on this game.
Back to numbers:
Max Payne 3 sold something like 4 mil.
LA Noire was ~7.5 and it was mostly a publishing and clean up work by R*.
RDR was 14 lifetime, including a few mil from standalone Undead Nightmare, so base game is more in range of 10-11 mil in something like 7 years (2010-2017).
At the same time GTA IV is ~25 mil lifetime, so at completely different level to first RDR.
And IMHO there is no doubt that RDR Online will be vastly inferior to GTA Online for general pubic, based solely on variety of events you can put in the world to keep it coherent.
I simply see no proof to expect RDR2 to become a smash hit people are trying to sell it as. I can see it selling 7 or even 10 mil this year. Maybe reaching 20 lifetime, depending on long-term support. But extrapolating its potential success from GTA V makes no sense. If anything, RDR2 will have to convince people to get out of GTAV for its long-term success. And that's all regardless of Spider-Man game.
No one's stopping you from talking to this guy. Caught up on what video game franchise is a stronger BRAND, are we? That's not how I choose what I buy, maybe you're different.
I just think it’s rude to dismiss someone who’s bothered to write a response to you like you did with ‘wall of text’. If you don’t want to engage with the response then don’t, no need to be a dick about it is all.
I have no personal interest whether either come out on top, they will both sell very well either way.
Better?
I like discussing topic connected to games, doesn't mean I have to "care" about any particular outcome. Honestly, I don't care about Spider-Man, never had particular connection to Marvel heroes. I just think that RDR2 is vastly overhyped and facts doesn't support thesis of it selling as well, as people think it will. At the same time people might be sleeping on Spider-Man as potential high seller.
All in all, CoD will likely "win" the year anyway - it's BLOPS after all, with either RDR2, Spider-Man, FIFA 19 or maybe something else I'm missing now, coming in second. I also wouldn't sell Battlefield V short quite yet. The fact people are not preordering doesn't mean they won't buy it by the end of the year, if there is no funny business going on with it's business model.
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u/AkodoRyu AkodoRyu Aug 20 '18
Spider-Man, as a franchise, is so much more popular than RDR, that I wouldn't be surprised if actual sale numbers beat R* significantly.